• Seamus Bruner (@seamusbruner), author of 'Controligarchs': Bill Gates is applying the same ruthless strategy he used at Microsoft to acquire monopolistic control over the food and agriculture industries.

    "Bill Gates has adapted this Microsoft strategy from the 1990s called embrace, extend, extinguish, where Microsoft would enter an industry—the internet browser industry—it would extend its reach, and then it would extinguish the competition."

    "We're seeing that right now with his land investments and his food investments. He's investing in these fake meat companies. So he enters the farming space... and then he expands his reach, buys up more and more properties, and then he pushes for the regulations that are going to put the farmers out of business."

    Source: youtube.com/watch?v=_V04Ay…

    Subscribe to us on Telegram: t.me/realwideawakem…

    Subscribe to our newsletter, for daily email updates: wide-awake-media.com

    https://x.com/wideawake_media/status/1730578792521912397?s=46
    Seamus Bruner (@seamusbruner), author of 'Controligarchs': Bill Gates is applying the same ruthless strategy he used at Microsoft to acquire monopolistic control over the food and agriculture industries. "Bill Gates has adapted this Microsoft strategy from the 1990s called embrace, extend, extinguish, where Microsoft would enter an industry—the internet browser industry—it would extend its reach, and then it would extinguish the competition." "We're seeing that right now with his land investments and his food investments. He's investing in these fake meat companies. So he enters the farming space... and then he expands his reach, buys up more and more properties, and then he pushes for the regulations that are going to put the farmers out of business." Source: youtube.com/watch?v=_V04Ay… Subscribe to us on Telegram: t.me/realwideawakem… Subscribe to our newsletter, for daily email updates: wide-awake-media.com https://x.com/wideawake_media/status/1730578792521912397?s=46
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  • Top 3 Crypto Tokens To Watch Under $3 | Top 3 Cryptocurrency Tokens Under $3 | #cryptotokensunder3 #bestcrypto #cheapcrypto #investing #finance https://youtu.be/Yjwgo51rc8Q
    Top 3 Crypto Tokens To Watch Under $3 | Top 3 Cryptocurrency Tokens Under $3 | #cryptotokensunder3 #bestcrypto #cheapcrypto #investing #finance https://youtu.be/Yjwgo51rc8Q
    0 Comments 0 Shares 564 Views
  • Why are cryptocurrencies dropping?
    Cryptocurrencies have been making headlines for quite some time now, and it's no secret that they have experienced their fair share of ups and downs. Lately, many people have been wondering why cryptocurrencies are dropping in value. Well, let's dive into the topic and explore some of the key reasons behind this downward trend.

    First and foremost, it's important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. This means that prices can fluctuate dramatically over short periods of time. While this volatility can offer exciting opportunities for investors, it also brings with it a certain level of risk. The recent drop in cryptocurrency prices can be attributed, at least in part, to this inherent volatility.

    Another factor that has contributed to the drop in cryptocurrency prices is market sentiment. Market sentiment refers to the overall attitude and perception of investors towards a particular asset or market. When negative news or events surround cryptocurrencies, such as regulatory crackdowns or security breaches, it can create a sense of uncertainty and fear among investors. This can lead to a sell-off and a subsequent drop in prices.

    Furthermore, it's worth mentioning that cryptocurrencies are still relatively new and not yet widely adopted. This lack of widespread acceptance and understanding can make them susceptible to market manipulation. In some cases, large-scale investors or "whales" may intentionally manipulate the market to their advantage, causing prices to drop.

    Additionally, cryptocurrencies are heavily influenced by external factors such as government regulations and global economic conditions. If governments impose strict regulations or bans on cryptocurrencies, it can create a negative impact on their value. Similarly, economic recessions or financial crises can lead to a decrease in investor confidence and a subsequent drop in cryptocurrency prices.

    It's also worth noting that the overall sentiment towards cryptocurrencies has shifted over time. In the early days, there was a lot of hype and excitement surrounding these digital assets. However, as the market has matured, skepticism and caution have started to prevail. This change in sentiment can also contribute to the drop in cryptocurrency prices.

    In conclusion, the drop in cryptocurrency prices can be attributed to a combination of factors such as market volatility, negative sentiment, market manipulation, government regulations, and global economic conditions. It's important to remember that cryptocurrencies are still a relatively new and evolving market, and as such, they will continue to experience fluctuations. As with any investment, it's crucial to conduct thorough research and exercise caution when investing in cryptocurrencies.


    Why are cryptocurrencies dropping? Cryptocurrencies have been making headlines for quite some time now, and it's no secret that they have experienced their fair share of ups and downs. Lately, many people have been wondering why cryptocurrencies are dropping in value. Well, let's dive into the topic and explore some of the key reasons behind this downward trend. First and foremost, it's important to note that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. This means that prices can fluctuate dramatically over short periods of time. While this volatility can offer exciting opportunities for investors, it also brings with it a certain level of risk. The recent drop in cryptocurrency prices can be attributed, at least in part, to this inherent volatility. Another factor that has contributed to the drop in cryptocurrency prices is market sentiment. Market sentiment refers to the overall attitude and perception of investors towards a particular asset or market. When negative news or events surround cryptocurrencies, such as regulatory crackdowns or security breaches, it can create a sense of uncertainty and fear among investors. This can lead to a sell-off and a subsequent drop in prices. Furthermore, it's worth mentioning that cryptocurrencies are still relatively new and not yet widely adopted. This lack of widespread acceptance and understanding can make them susceptible to market manipulation. In some cases, large-scale investors or "whales" may intentionally manipulate the market to their advantage, causing prices to drop. Additionally, cryptocurrencies are heavily influenced by external factors such as government regulations and global economic conditions. If governments impose strict regulations or bans on cryptocurrencies, it can create a negative impact on their value. Similarly, economic recessions or financial crises can lead to a decrease in investor confidence and a subsequent drop in cryptocurrency prices. It's also worth noting that the overall sentiment towards cryptocurrencies has shifted over time. In the early days, there was a lot of hype and excitement surrounding these digital assets. However, as the market has matured, skepticism and caution have started to prevail. This change in sentiment can also contribute to the drop in cryptocurrency prices. In conclusion, the drop in cryptocurrency prices can be attributed to a combination of factors such as market volatility, negative sentiment, market manipulation, government regulations, and global economic conditions. It's important to remember that cryptocurrencies are still a relatively new and evolving market, and as such, they will continue to experience fluctuations. As with any investment, it's crucial to conduct thorough research and exercise caution when investing in cryptocurrencies.
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    TikTok Marketing - 90% COMMISSIONS ECURE ORDER TikTok Marketing Are You Ready To Leverage The TikTok Platform For Profits? It's About Time For You To Learn TikTok Marketing! Promolink 👇 https://www.digistore24.com/redir/482390/Abrar769/ You need to make a good start with TikTok if you want to be successful with it. In March 2019 there had been over 1 billion installs of TikTok. There are over 500 million active users of TikTok and 26.5 million of these are from the United States. Dear Friend, https://www.digistore24.com/redir/482390/Abrar769/ The TikTok social media platform has seen explosive growth over the last two years. It now has 500 million users that are desperate for fun and exciting content and this is a massive opportunity for you to promote your business. To be successful with TikTok marketing you need to know how the platform works and how the users interact with each other. https://www.digistore24.com/redir/482390/Abrar769/ TikTok appeals to a younger demographic and you really need to speak their language to be successful. We have worked hard to provide you with everything that you need to know to use the TikTok platform to market your business successfully. Other marketers have tried marketing on TikTok and failed. We do not want you to make the same mistakes that they did. Here's where my advice for you comes in. TikTok Marketing With My Advice You will learn how to use the TikTok platform to market your business successfully. You will learn that a number of businesses and organizations have already leveraged the TikTok platform to get the word out. You will be able to engage with your audience on TikTok. You will learn how to create viral videos and grow your TikTok account. 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  • US and Israel headed for some sort of mega black swan event
    ByBenjamin Fulford November 6, 2023
    The signs are multiplying that the US and Israel are headed for some sort of mega black swan event. The result will be that both countries cease to exist in their present format. That is because the Federal Reserve Board -the fountain of power for the Satanists- is on the verge of collapse. If it goes, then everything under it, such as the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA CORPORATION, the BIS, the World Bank, the IMF, the UN and 90% of the world’s transnational corporations will also collapse and come under new management.
    The signs of FRB collapse are manifold. As we have previously noted, the FRB interest rate of 5.25% has mathematically doomed at least half of all US Banks because it has devalued all the zero or close to zero interest stuff on their books. The FRB is now resorting to fraudulent accounting to hide the resulting bank run.
    This was seen when deposits at most of the big US banks (owners of the FRB) were “delayed” by the FRBs Automated Clearing House (ACH), network.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/03/investing/bank-deposit-outage/index.html
    This apparently allowed the FRB to use “seasonal adjustment” fakery to turn a $33 billion deposit outflow (bank run) into a $52 billion inflow. This trickery has magically boosted deposits by $168 billion since April. Since FRB rules allow 1000 times leverage, these fake deposits back $168 trillion worth of “financial instruments.” In other words, the whole financial house of cards rests on a foundation of fraud.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-fkery-turns-massive-33bn-bank-deposit-outflow-51bn-inflow
    The US banks are also now stealing people’s money outright as well. Many bank customers are getting letters saying all of their checking and savings accounts are being closed. The explanation, if there is one, is something like “Per your account agreement, we can close your account for any reason at any time.”
    https://dnyuz.com/2023/11/05/why-banks-are-suddenly-closing-down-customer-accounts/
    This is happening in Australia and other KM-controlled countries as well.
    The KM are also now pushing desperately to outlaw cash and force us into a digital prison. The new FedNow inter-banking communication system is “possibly unconstitutional” and “threatens the very freedoms that all liberty-loving American citizens should hold dear,” says Bitcoin Magazine Editor Mark Goodwin in response to an FRB attempt to silence his publications’ criticism of this system.
    https://bitcoinmagazine.com/legal/federal-reserve-threatens-to-sue-bitcoin-magazine
    These moves are connected to the upcoming November 15th deadline for the US government to “raise the debt limit.” We are hearing the Chinese and other creditors to the US are determined not to let the US “government” circus show continue any longer.
    This financial trouble is why a political or military-type mega black swan event is probable. In the past, the FRB has responded to crises of this nature with events like 911, Fukushima and most recently the pandemic and vaccine global genocide attempt.
    One possibility is some sort of holocaust or mass sacrifice to Satan is being planned for Israel. We are getting credible reports from foreign diplomats based there that large portions of the country have been evacuated to Ukraine. These coincide with reports from Russia that roadblocks have been set up in the Ukraine and only people who can prove they are Jewish are being allowed past them.
    Mossad sources further claim Israel as a corporation has expired on October 31st. Also, China has removed Israel from its maps.
    In response, Netanyahu has appeared showing a map of Israel minus the Gaza strip. The last thing left for Israel to do is wage a Great War.
    “Israel is a global terrorist organization. That’s exactly what they are, but It is better to refer to them as the cancer of planet Earth,” a Mossad source says.
    In another sign Jews still in Israel are being prepared for another Holocaust, Satanic thugs in Israel are violently attacking genuine Jews who are protesting the genocidal acts of their government.
    According to MI6, the people behind this are Crime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu and “a group of extremist Israeli nationalists who assassinated various international characters over the years including a Swedish count by all accounts so to speak and also had a go at a certain Mr. Winston Churchill back in the day. They style their vision of a modern Israel on the fascist states of Spain, Italy and Germany…The joint Israel and Gaza Strip incursions are indeed a slaughterhouse of blood sacrifice and now genocide. Left unchecked they will level the entire place to the ground and all in it.”
    Netanyahu himself refers to his Jewish and Palestinian enemies as Amalek:
    “The Lord ordered King Saul to destroy the enemy and all his people: ‘Now go and defeat Amalek and destroy all that he has; and give him no mercy: but put to death both Husband and wife; from youth to infant; from ox to sheep; from camel to donkey.” Book of Samuel 15:3.
    Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu agrees saying “One of Israel’s options in the war in Gaza is to drop a nuclear bomb on the strip,”
    https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/saudi-arabia-condemns-israeli-officials-statements-on-using-nuclear-weapon-on-gaza-3673010
    In a sign they know something is about to happen there, the Pentagon will no longer allow its senior military leaders to travel to Israel and will discourage members of Congress from making trips. “Israel will not recover from this mistake,” a senior CIA source warns.
    In other words, unless action is taken, the KM are about to stage a murder-suicide of Israel rather than accept Jewish liberation from millennia of Satanic control.
    Turkey might step in by reasserting control over Israel. “It is Türkiye’s duty to stop the bloodshed in Gaza,” President Recep Erdogan said on Sunday. “We are doing and will continue to do more than what is visible,” he said implying NATO’s largest army might intervene.
    https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/stopping-bloodshed-in-gaza-is-turkiyes-duty-president-erdogan-3673004‘
    There is also evidence some sort of truly horrific event is being planned for
    The remainder of Monday's newsletter is only available to members of BenjaminFulford.net holding a paid subscription. If you believe this message is being displayed in error, check that you are logged in to your account.
    If you are not logged in or need to make an account, please do so on the main menu.
    If you are still having issues, please email [email protected]
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    https://benjaminfulford.net/us-and-israel-headed-for-some-sort-of-mega-black-swan-event/


    AS dan Israel menuju semacam acara mega black swan

    Oleh Benjamin Fulford 6 November 2023

    Tanda-tandanya berlipat ganda bahwa AS dan Israel sedang menuju semacam acara mega angsa hitam. Hasilnya adalah kedua negara tidak ada lagi dalam format mereka saat ini. Itu karena Federal Reserve Board -sumber kekuatan bagi para Satanis- berada di ambang kehancuran. Jika itu berjalan, maka segala sesuatu di bawahnya, seperti KORPORASI AMERIKA SERIKAT, BIS, Bank Dunia, IMF, PBB dan 90% perusahaan transnasional dunia juga akan runtuh dan berada di bawah manajemen baru.

    Tanda-tanda keruntuhan FRB bermacam-macam. Seperti yang telah kami catat sebelumnya, tingkat bunga FRB sebesar 5,25% secara matematis telah menghancurkan setidaknya setengah dari semua Bank AS karena telah mendevaluasi semua hal bunga nol atau mendekati nol pada pembukuan mereka. FRB sekarang menggunakan akuntansi palsu untuk menyembunyikan lari bank yang dihasilkan.

    Hal ini terlihat ketika deposito di sebagian besar bank besar AS (pemilik FRB) "tertunda" oleh FRB Automated Clearing House (ACH), jaringan.

    Https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/03/investing/bank-deposit-outage/index.html

    Ini tampaknya memungkinkan FRB untuk menggunakan "penyesuaian musiman" palsu untuk mengubah arus keluar deposito $33 miliar (bank run) menjadi arus masuk $52 miliar. Trik ini secara ajaib telah meningkatkan simpanan sebesar $168 miliar sejak April. Karena aturan FRB mengizinkan 1000 kali leverage, setoran palsu ini mengembalikan "instrumen keuangan" senilai $168 triliun. Dengan kata lain, seluruh rumah keuangan kartu bertumpu pada dasar penipuan.

    Https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-fkery-turns-massive-33bn-bank-deposit-outflow-51bn-inflow

    Bank-bank AS juga sekarang mencuri uang orang secara langsung. Banyak pelanggan bank mendapatkan surat yang mengatakan semua rekening giro dan tabungan mereka ditutup. Penjelasannya, jika ada, adalah sesuatu seperti "Sepak dengan perjanjian akun Anda, kami dapat menutup akun Anda untuk alasan apa pun kapan saja."

    Https://dnyuz.com/2023/11/05/mengapa-bank-tiba-tiba-menutup-akun-pelanggan/

    Ini terjadi di Australia dan negara-negara lain yang dikendalikan KM- juga.

    KM juga sekarang berusaha mati-matian untuk melarang uang tunai dan memaksa kita masuk ke penjara digital. Sistem komunikasi antar-bank FedNow yang baru "mungkin tidak konstitusional" dan "mengancam kebebasan yang harus disayangi oleh semua warga Amerika yang mencintai kebebasan," kata Editor Majalah Bitcoin Mark Goodwin dalam menanggapi upaya FRB untuk membungkam kritik publikasinya terhadap sistem ini.

    Https://bitcoinmagazine.com/legal/federal-reserve-threatens-to-sue-bitcoin-magazine

    Langkah-langkah ini terhubung dengan batas waktu 15 November mendatang bagi pemerintah AS untuk "meningkatkan batas utang." Kami mendengar Cina dan kreditor lain ke AS bertekad untuk tidak membiarkan pertunjukan sirkus "pemerintah" AS berlanjut lebih lama lagi.

    Masalah keuangan inilah mengapa acara angsa hitam mega tipe politik atau militer- kemungkinan besar. Di masa lalu, FRB telah menanggapi krisis seperti ini dengan peristiwa seperti 911, Fukushima dan yang terbaru adalah upaya genosida global pandemi dan vaksin.

    Salah satu kemungkinannya adalah semacam holocaust atau pengorbanan massal kepada Setan sedang direncanakan untuk Israel. Kami mendapatkan laporan yang kredibel dari diplomat asing yang berbasis di sana bahwa sebagian besar negara telah dievakuasi ke Ukraina. Ini bertepatan dengan laporan dari Rusia bahwa penghalang jalan telah didirikan di Ukraina dan hanya orang-orang yang dapat membuktikan bahwa mereka adalah orang Yahudi yang diizinkan melewatinya.

    Sumber Mossad lebih lanjut mengklaim Israel sebagai perusahaan telah kedaluwarsa pada 31 Oktober. Juga, Cina telah menghapus Israel dari petanya.

    Sebagai tanggapan, Netanyahu telah muncul menunjukkan peta Israel dikurangi jalur Gaza. Hal terakhir yang tersisa untuk dilakukan Israel adalah mengobarkan Perang Besar.

    “Israel adalah organisasi teroris global. Itulah tepatnya mereka, tetapi lebih baik menyebut mereka sebagai kanker planet Bumi,” kata sumber Mossad.

    Dalam tanda lain orang Yahudi masih di Israel sedang dipersiapkan untuk Holocaust lain, preman Setan di Israel dengan keras menyerang orang Yahudi asli yang memprotes tindakan genosida pemerintah mereka.

    Menurut MI6, orang-orang di balik ini adalah Menteri Kejahatan Benyamin Netanyahu dan "sekelompok nasionalis Israel ekstremis yang membunuh berbagai karakter internasional selama bertahun-tahun termasuk hitungan Swedia oleh semua akun sehingga untuk berbicara dan juga mencoba Mr. Winston Churchill tertentu pada hari itu. Mereka menata visi mereka tentang Israel modern di negara-negara fasis Spanyol, Italia, dan Jerman... Serangan gabungan Israel dan Jalur Gaza memang rumah jagal pengorbanan darah dan sekarang genosida. Dibiarkan tidak dicentang, mereka akan meratakan seluruh tempat ke tanah dan semua di dalamnya.”

    Netanyahu sendiri menyebut musuh Yahudi dan Palestinanya sebagai Amalek:

    "Tuhan memerintahkan Raja Saul untuk menghancurkan musuh dan seluruh rakyatnya: 'Sekarang pergilah dan kalahkan Amalek dan hancurkan semua yang dia miliki; dan jangan beri dia belas kasihan: tetapi bunuh suami dan istri; dari masa muda hingga bayi; dari sapi hingga domba; dari unta hingga keledai." Kitab Samuel 15:3.

    Menteri Warisan Amichai Eliyahu setuju mengatakan "Salah satu pilihan Israel dalam perang di Gaza adalah menjatuhkan bom nuklir di jalur tersebut,"

    Https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/saudi-arabia-mengutuk-israel-penyataan-tentang-menggunakan-senjata-nuklir-pada-gaza-3673010

    Dalam tanda mereka tahu sesuatu akan terjadi di sana, Pentagon tidak akan lagi mengizinkan para pemimpin militer seniornya untuk melakukan perjalanan ke Israel dan akan mencegah anggota Kongres melakukan perjalanan. "Israel tidak akan pulih dari kesalahan ini," sumber senior CIA memperingatkan.

    Dengan kata lain, kecuali tindakan diambil, KM akan melakukan pembunuhan-bunuh diri Israel daripada menerima pembebasan Yahudi dari ribuan tahun kendali Setan.

    Turki mungkin turun langkah dengan menegaskan kembali kendali atas Israel. "Ini adalah tugas Türkiye untuk menghentikan pertumpahan darah di Gaza," kata Presiden Recep Erdogan pada hari Minggu. "Kami sedang melakukan dan akan terus melakukan lebih dari apa yang terlihat," katanya menyiratkan tentara terbesar NATO mungkin campur tangan.

    Https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/stopping-bloodshed-in-gaza-is-turkiyes-duty-president-erdogan-3673004'

    Ada juga bukti bahwa semacam peristiwa yang benar-benar mengerikan sedang direncanakan untuk

    Sisa buletin hari Senin hanya tersedia untuk anggota BenjaminFulford.net yang memiliki langganan berbayar. Jika Anda yakin pesan ini ditampilkan karena kesalahan, periksa apakah Anda masuk ke akun Anda.

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    Jika Anda masih mengalami masalah, silakan kirim email ke [email protected]

    Lupa Kata Sandi
    US and Israel headed for some sort of mega black swan event ByBenjamin Fulford November 6, 2023 The signs are multiplying that the US and Israel are headed for some sort of mega black swan event. The result will be that both countries cease to exist in their present format. That is because the Federal Reserve Board -the fountain of power for the Satanists- is on the verge of collapse. If it goes, then everything under it, such as the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA CORPORATION, the BIS, the World Bank, the IMF, the UN and 90% of the world’s transnational corporations will also collapse and come under new management. The signs of FRB collapse are manifold. As we have previously noted, the FRB interest rate of 5.25% has mathematically doomed at least half of all US Banks because it has devalued all the zero or close to zero interest stuff on their books. The FRB is now resorting to fraudulent accounting to hide the resulting bank run. This was seen when deposits at most of the big US banks (owners of the FRB) were “delayed” by the FRBs Automated Clearing House (ACH), network. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/03/investing/bank-deposit-outage/index.html This apparently allowed the FRB to use “seasonal adjustment” fakery to turn a $33 billion deposit outflow (bank run) into a $52 billion inflow. This trickery has magically boosted deposits by $168 billion since April. Since FRB rules allow 1000 times leverage, these fake deposits back $168 trillion worth of “financial instruments.” In other words, the whole financial house of cards rests on a foundation of fraud. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-fkery-turns-massive-33bn-bank-deposit-outflow-51bn-inflow The US banks are also now stealing people’s money outright as well. Many bank customers are getting letters saying all of their checking and savings accounts are being closed. The explanation, if there is one, is something like “Per your account agreement, we can close your account for any reason at any time.” https://dnyuz.com/2023/11/05/why-banks-are-suddenly-closing-down-customer-accounts/ This is happening in Australia and other KM-controlled countries as well. The KM are also now pushing desperately to outlaw cash and force us into a digital prison. The new FedNow inter-banking communication system is “possibly unconstitutional” and “threatens the very freedoms that all liberty-loving American citizens should hold dear,” says Bitcoin Magazine Editor Mark Goodwin in response to an FRB attempt to silence his publications’ criticism of this system. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/legal/federal-reserve-threatens-to-sue-bitcoin-magazine These moves are connected to the upcoming November 15th deadline for the US government to “raise the debt limit.” We are hearing the Chinese and other creditors to the US are determined not to let the US “government” circus show continue any longer. This financial trouble is why a political or military-type mega black swan event is probable. In the past, the FRB has responded to crises of this nature with events like 911, Fukushima and most recently the pandemic and vaccine global genocide attempt. One possibility is some sort of holocaust or mass sacrifice to Satan is being planned for Israel. We are getting credible reports from foreign diplomats based there that large portions of the country have been evacuated to Ukraine. These coincide with reports from Russia that roadblocks have been set up in the Ukraine and only people who can prove they are Jewish are being allowed past them. Mossad sources further claim Israel as a corporation has expired on October 31st. Also, China has removed Israel from its maps. In response, Netanyahu has appeared showing a map of Israel minus the Gaza strip. The last thing left for Israel to do is wage a Great War. “Israel is a global terrorist organization. That’s exactly what they are, but It is better to refer to them as the cancer of planet Earth,” a Mossad source says. In another sign Jews still in Israel are being prepared for another Holocaust, Satanic thugs in Israel are violently attacking genuine Jews who are protesting the genocidal acts of their government. According to MI6, the people behind this are Crime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu and “a group of extremist Israeli nationalists who assassinated various international characters over the years including a Swedish count by all accounts so to speak and also had a go at a certain Mr. Winston Churchill back in the day. They style their vision of a modern Israel on the fascist states of Spain, Italy and Germany…The joint Israel and Gaza Strip incursions are indeed a slaughterhouse of blood sacrifice and now genocide. Left unchecked they will level the entire place to the ground and all in it.” Netanyahu himself refers to his Jewish and Palestinian enemies as Amalek: “The Lord ordered King Saul to destroy the enemy and all his people: ‘Now go and defeat Amalek and destroy all that he has; and give him no mercy: but put to death both Husband and wife; from youth to infant; from ox to sheep; from camel to donkey.” Book of Samuel 15:3. Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu agrees saying “One of Israel’s options in the war in Gaza is to drop a nuclear bomb on the strip,” https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/saudi-arabia-condemns-israeli-officials-statements-on-using-nuclear-weapon-on-gaza-3673010 In a sign they know something is about to happen there, the Pentagon will no longer allow its senior military leaders to travel to Israel and will discourage members of Congress from making trips. “Israel will not recover from this mistake,” a senior CIA source warns. In other words, unless action is taken, the KM are about to stage a murder-suicide of Israel rather than accept Jewish liberation from millennia of Satanic control. Turkey might step in by reasserting control over Israel. “It is Türkiye’s duty to stop the bloodshed in Gaza,” President Recep Erdogan said on Sunday. “We are doing and will continue to do more than what is visible,” he said implying NATO’s largest army might intervene. https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/stopping-bloodshed-in-gaza-is-turkiyes-duty-president-erdogan-3673004‘ There is also evidence some sort of truly horrific event is being planned for The remainder of Monday's newsletter is only available to members of BenjaminFulford.net holding a paid subscription. If you believe this message is being displayed in error, check that you are logged in to your account. If you are not logged in or need to make an account, please do so on the main menu. If you are still having issues, please email [email protected] Forgot Password https://benjaminfulford.net/us-and-israel-headed-for-some-sort-of-mega-black-swan-event/ AS dan Israel menuju semacam acara mega black swan Oleh Benjamin Fulford 6 November 2023 Tanda-tandanya berlipat ganda bahwa AS dan Israel sedang menuju semacam acara mega angsa hitam. Hasilnya adalah kedua negara tidak ada lagi dalam format mereka saat ini. Itu karena Federal Reserve Board -sumber kekuatan bagi para Satanis- berada di ambang kehancuran. Jika itu berjalan, maka segala sesuatu di bawahnya, seperti KORPORASI AMERIKA SERIKAT, BIS, Bank Dunia, IMF, PBB dan 90% perusahaan transnasional dunia juga akan runtuh dan berada di bawah manajemen baru. Tanda-tanda keruntuhan FRB bermacam-macam. Seperti yang telah kami catat sebelumnya, tingkat bunga FRB sebesar 5,25% secara matematis telah menghancurkan setidaknya setengah dari semua Bank AS karena telah mendevaluasi semua hal bunga nol atau mendekati nol pada pembukuan mereka. FRB sekarang menggunakan akuntansi palsu untuk menyembunyikan lari bank yang dihasilkan. Hal ini terlihat ketika deposito di sebagian besar bank besar AS (pemilik FRB) "tertunda" oleh FRB Automated Clearing House (ACH), jaringan. Https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/03/investing/bank-deposit-outage/index.html Ini tampaknya memungkinkan FRB untuk menggunakan "penyesuaian musiman" palsu untuk mengubah arus keluar deposito $33 miliar (bank run) menjadi arus masuk $52 miliar. Trik ini secara ajaib telah meningkatkan simpanan sebesar $168 miliar sejak April. Karena aturan FRB mengizinkan 1000 kali leverage, setoran palsu ini mengembalikan "instrumen keuangan" senilai $168 triliun. Dengan kata lain, seluruh rumah keuangan kartu bertumpu pada dasar penipuan. Https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-fkery-turns-massive-33bn-bank-deposit-outflow-51bn-inflow Bank-bank AS juga sekarang mencuri uang orang secara langsung. Banyak pelanggan bank mendapatkan surat yang mengatakan semua rekening giro dan tabungan mereka ditutup. Penjelasannya, jika ada, adalah sesuatu seperti "Sepak dengan perjanjian akun Anda, kami dapat menutup akun Anda untuk alasan apa pun kapan saja." Https://dnyuz.com/2023/11/05/mengapa-bank-tiba-tiba-menutup-akun-pelanggan/ Ini terjadi di Australia dan negara-negara lain yang dikendalikan KM- juga. KM juga sekarang berusaha mati-matian untuk melarang uang tunai dan memaksa kita masuk ke penjara digital. Sistem komunikasi antar-bank FedNow yang baru "mungkin tidak konstitusional" dan "mengancam kebebasan yang harus disayangi oleh semua warga Amerika yang mencintai kebebasan," kata Editor Majalah Bitcoin Mark Goodwin dalam menanggapi upaya FRB untuk membungkam kritik publikasinya terhadap sistem ini. Https://bitcoinmagazine.com/legal/federal-reserve-threatens-to-sue-bitcoin-magazine Langkah-langkah ini terhubung dengan batas waktu 15 November mendatang bagi pemerintah AS untuk "meningkatkan batas utang." Kami mendengar Cina dan kreditor lain ke AS bertekad untuk tidak membiarkan pertunjukan sirkus "pemerintah" AS berlanjut lebih lama lagi. Masalah keuangan inilah mengapa acara angsa hitam mega tipe politik atau militer- kemungkinan besar. Di masa lalu, FRB telah menanggapi krisis seperti ini dengan peristiwa seperti 911, Fukushima dan yang terbaru adalah upaya genosida global pandemi dan vaksin. Salah satu kemungkinannya adalah semacam holocaust atau pengorbanan massal kepada Setan sedang direncanakan untuk Israel. Kami mendapatkan laporan yang kredibel dari diplomat asing yang berbasis di sana bahwa sebagian besar negara telah dievakuasi ke Ukraina. Ini bertepatan dengan laporan dari Rusia bahwa penghalang jalan telah didirikan di Ukraina dan hanya orang-orang yang dapat membuktikan bahwa mereka adalah orang Yahudi yang diizinkan melewatinya. Sumber Mossad lebih lanjut mengklaim Israel sebagai perusahaan telah kedaluwarsa pada 31 Oktober. Juga, Cina telah menghapus Israel dari petanya. Sebagai tanggapan, Netanyahu telah muncul menunjukkan peta Israel dikurangi jalur Gaza. Hal terakhir yang tersisa untuk dilakukan Israel adalah mengobarkan Perang Besar. “Israel adalah organisasi teroris global. Itulah tepatnya mereka, tetapi lebih baik menyebut mereka sebagai kanker planet Bumi,” kata sumber Mossad. Dalam tanda lain orang Yahudi masih di Israel sedang dipersiapkan untuk Holocaust lain, preman Setan di Israel dengan keras menyerang orang Yahudi asli yang memprotes tindakan genosida pemerintah mereka. Menurut MI6, orang-orang di balik ini adalah Menteri Kejahatan Benyamin Netanyahu dan "sekelompok nasionalis Israel ekstremis yang membunuh berbagai karakter internasional selama bertahun-tahun termasuk hitungan Swedia oleh semua akun sehingga untuk berbicara dan juga mencoba Mr. Winston Churchill tertentu pada hari itu. Mereka menata visi mereka tentang Israel modern di negara-negara fasis Spanyol, Italia, dan Jerman... Serangan gabungan Israel dan Jalur Gaza memang rumah jagal pengorbanan darah dan sekarang genosida. Dibiarkan tidak dicentang, mereka akan meratakan seluruh tempat ke tanah dan semua di dalamnya.” Netanyahu sendiri menyebut musuh Yahudi dan Palestinanya sebagai Amalek: "Tuhan memerintahkan Raja Saul untuk menghancurkan musuh dan seluruh rakyatnya: 'Sekarang pergilah dan kalahkan Amalek dan hancurkan semua yang dia miliki; dan jangan beri dia belas kasihan: tetapi bunuh suami dan istri; dari masa muda hingga bayi; dari sapi hingga domba; dari unta hingga keledai." Kitab Samuel 15:3. Menteri Warisan Amichai Eliyahu setuju mengatakan "Salah satu pilihan Israel dalam perang di Gaza adalah menjatuhkan bom nuklir di jalur tersebut," Https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/saudi-arabia-mengutuk-israel-penyataan-tentang-menggunakan-senjata-nuklir-pada-gaza-3673010 Dalam tanda mereka tahu sesuatu akan terjadi di sana, Pentagon tidak akan lagi mengizinkan para pemimpin militer seniornya untuk melakukan perjalanan ke Israel dan akan mencegah anggota Kongres melakukan perjalanan. "Israel tidak akan pulih dari kesalahan ini," sumber senior CIA memperingatkan. Dengan kata lain, kecuali tindakan diambil, KM akan melakukan pembunuhan-bunuh diri Israel daripada menerima pembebasan Yahudi dari ribuan tahun kendali Setan. Turki mungkin turun langkah dengan menegaskan kembali kendali atas Israel. "Ini adalah tugas Türkiye untuk menghentikan pertumpahan darah di Gaza," kata Presiden Recep Erdogan pada hari Minggu. "Kami sedang melakukan dan akan terus melakukan lebih dari apa yang terlihat," katanya menyiratkan tentara terbesar NATO mungkin campur tangan. Https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/stopping-bloodshed-in-gaza-is-turkiyes-duty-president-erdogan-3673004' Ada juga bukti bahwa semacam peristiwa yang benar-benar mengerikan sedang direncanakan untuk Sisa buletin hari Senin hanya tersedia untuk anggota BenjaminFulford.net yang memiliki langganan berbayar. Jika Anda yakin pesan ini ditampilkan karena kesalahan, periksa apakah Anda masuk ke akun Anda. Jika Anda tidak masuk atau perlu membuat akun, silakan lakukan di menu utama. Jika Anda masih mengalami masalah, silakan kirim email ke [email protected] Lupa Kata Sandi
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  • Britons sign petition demanding arrest of PM Rishi Sunak for support of Israeli war crimes
    By
    SHAH ALAM - Echoing global concern over the ongoing crisis in Palestine, an online petition was launched on Nov 1, demanding the immediate arrest of United Kingdom Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

    The petition, addressed to Scotland Yard, asserts that Sunak's unwavering support for actions by the Israeli occupation in Palestine is a cause for alarm and calls for accountability.

    “The world is witnessing the biggest humanitarian crisis since the holocaust. The Palestinian people are being subjected to the worst bombardment ever seen by any of us and war crimes are reportedly being committed on an unprecedented scale.

    “Whilst Amnesty international amongst other international charities and countries have declared Israel as committing war crimes and breaching International law as well as the Geneva Convention, the UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, is providing unwavering support to these actions,” the description wrote.

    Screenshots from change.org
    Screenshots from change.org
    The petition argues that Sunak’s stance contradicts the condemnation voiced by international bodies, raising concerns about the lack of intervention from influential leaders. The petition initiator, known only as “ZB,” highlights the urgency of the situation, stating that Palestinian families were being wiped out by continuous attacks, while hospitals and refugee camps face horrific bombings.

    The call for Sunak's arrest has been framed as a demand for justice, aiming to hold leaders accountable for their actions and complicity in what has been described as ethnic cleansing and genocide. The petition emphasises that Sunak's alleged actions not only violate basic human rights but also undermine global peace efforts, urging concerned citizens worldwide to unite in demanding accountability and justice for the Palestinian people.

    “For 75 years now, Palestinian people have been subjected to brutal force and occupation by what many perceive as a Zionist regime. At this moment of time a whole ethnic cleansing and genocide is happening.


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    “It's alarming that such atrocities continue unabated while world leaders like Mr Sunak seemingly condone them through their silence or active support. It's time we demand accountability from those who hold positions of power and influence.


    “I call upon all concerned citizens around the world to join me in demanding the immediate arrest of Rishi Sunak for his alleged complicity in these war crimes. His actions not only violate basic human rights but also undermine global peace efforts,” it said.

    As of Nov 13, a total of 27,800 have signed the petition.

    Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak greets Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the steps of 10 Downing Street in central London on March 24, 2023, ahead of their meeting. (Photo by ISABEL INFANTES / AFP)
    Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak greets Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the steps of 10 Downing Street in central London on March 24, 2023, ahead of their meeting. (Photo by ISABEL INFANTES / AFP)
    Among the signatories is Michael Briggs who wrote: “To not support a ceasefire and to continue to supply arms to Israel is to be complicit in war crimes against the wishes of the great majority of the UK public” as a reason for signing.

    Jabeen Roberts meanwhile said Sunak does not deliver or hold the morals and views of the UK public and that he and his family were complicit in investing and supporting war crimes. “I do not want my taxes used to kill babies and spread hate across the world, he dies not promote or stand for world peace. We the public did not vote him in!” he added.

    Sunak on Saturday condemned the “violent, wholly unacceptable” scenes by far-right groups who tried to ambush a pro-Palestine rally in central London, saying that the “despicable actions of a minority of people undermine those who have chosen to express their views peacefully.” He also slammed the pro-Palestine protesters by calling them “Hamas sympathisers”.

    On Oct 19, Sunak went on a two-day visit to Israel and the region to demonstrate British backing for the Israeli government, call for de-escalation of the conflict and press for humanitarian aid to be allowed into Gaza. He met the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu where Sunak announced that he was proud to stand with the Israeli leader in “Israel’s darkest hour.” Sunak added that Britain “will stand with you in solidarity, we will stand with your people and we also want you to win”.


    https://www.sinardaily.my/article/212656/world/britons-sign-petition-demanding-arrest-of-pm-rishi-sunak-for-support-of-israeli-war-crimes
    Britons sign petition demanding arrest of PM Rishi Sunak for support of Israeli war crimes By SHAH ALAM - Echoing global concern over the ongoing crisis in Palestine, an online petition was launched on Nov 1, demanding the immediate arrest of United Kingdom Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The petition, addressed to Scotland Yard, asserts that Sunak's unwavering support for actions by the Israeli occupation in Palestine is a cause for alarm and calls for accountability. “The world is witnessing the biggest humanitarian crisis since the holocaust. The Palestinian people are being subjected to the worst bombardment ever seen by any of us and war crimes are reportedly being committed on an unprecedented scale. “Whilst Amnesty international amongst other international charities and countries have declared Israel as committing war crimes and breaching International law as well as the Geneva Convention, the UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, is providing unwavering support to these actions,” the description wrote. Screenshots from change.org Screenshots from change.org The petition argues that Sunak’s stance contradicts the condemnation voiced by international bodies, raising concerns about the lack of intervention from influential leaders. The petition initiator, known only as “ZB,” highlights the urgency of the situation, stating that Palestinian families were being wiped out by continuous attacks, while hospitals and refugee camps face horrific bombings. The call for Sunak's arrest has been framed as a demand for justice, aiming to hold leaders accountable for their actions and complicity in what has been described as ethnic cleansing and genocide. The petition emphasises that Sunak's alleged actions not only violate basic human rights but also undermine global peace efforts, urging concerned citizens worldwide to unite in demanding accountability and justice for the Palestinian people. “For 75 years now, Palestinian people have been subjected to brutal force and occupation by what many perceive as a Zionist regime. At this moment of time a whole ethnic cleansing and genocide is happening.
 You may also like: Shah Alam International Logistics Hub to offer integrated logistics, warehousing facility Israeli forces are increasing attacks on healthcare workers in Palestine Sanusi's arrest and prosecution will increase voters' support - Analyst “It's alarming that such atrocities continue unabated while world leaders like Mr Sunak seemingly condone them through their silence or active support. It's time we demand accountability from those who hold positions of power and influence.
 “I call upon all concerned citizens around the world to join me in demanding the immediate arrest of Rishi Sunak for his alleged complicity in these war crimes. His actions not only violate basic human rights but also undermine global peace efforts,” it said. As of Nov 13, a total of 27,800 have signed the petition. Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak greets Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the steps of 10 Downing Street in central London on March 24, 2023, ahead of their meeting. (Photo by ISABEL INFANTES / AFP) Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak greets Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the steps of 10 Downing Street in central London on March 24, 2023, ahead of their meeting. (Photo by ISABEL INFANTES / AFP) Among the signatories is Michael Briggs who wrote: “To not support a ceasefire and to continue to supply arms to Israel is to be complicit in war crimes against the wishes of the great majority of the UK public” as a reason for signing. Jabeen Roberts meanwhile said Sunak does not deliver or hold the morals and views of the UK public and that he and his family were complicit in investing and supporting war crimes. “I do not want my taxes used to kill babies and spread hate across the world, he dies not promote or stand for world peace. We the public did not vote him in!” he added. Sunak on Saturday condemned the “violent, wholly unacceptable” scenes by far-right groups who tried to ambush a pro-Palestine rally in central London, saying that the “despicable actions of a minority of people undermine those who have chosen to express their views peacefully.” He also slammed the pro-Palestine protesters by calling them “Hamas sympathisers”. On Oct 19, Sunak went on a two-day visit to Israel and the region to demonstrate British backing for the Israeli government, call for de-escalation of the conflict and press for humanitarian aid to be allowed into Gaza. He met the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu where Sunak announced that he was proud to stand with the Israeli leader in “Israel’s darkest hour.” Sunak added that Britain “will stand with you in solidarity, we will stand with your people and we also want you to win”. https://www.sinardaily.my/article/212656/world/britons-sign-petition-demanding-arrest-of-pm-rishi-sunak-for-support-of-israeli-war-crimes
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    Britons sign petition demanding arrest of PM Rishi Sunak for support of Israeli war crimes
    SHAH ALAM - Echoing global concern over the ongoing crisis in Palestine, an online petition was launched on Nov 1, demanding the immediate arrest of United Kingdom Prime Minister...
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  • MASSIVE MARKET

    The world is moving faster than ever: From Covid (2020-22), to the Russia-Ukraine war (2022), ChatGPT (2023), out-of-control inflation (2023), to the next big event (2024 and beyond).

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    MASSIVE MARKET The world is moving faster than ever: From Covid (2020-22), to the Russia-Ukraine war (2022), ChatGPT (2023), out-of-control inflation (2023), to the next big event (2024 and beyond). People and businesses are under greater pressure than ever to adapt to emerging trends. But that is only possible by being informed about upcoming trends. That's why companies and governments across all industries are investing in trend intelligence services like the Quantumrun Foresight Platform. https://www.digistore24.com/redir/508567/Gagiya/
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    Track industry trends. Improve strategic planning. Brainstorm future-ready product …
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  • The Age of Megathreats
    Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022
    op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images
    NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be.

    Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.”

    Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies.

    Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries.

    Goodbye to All That

    Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII.

    There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb.


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    With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea.

    Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any.

    Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy.

    There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia.

    Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.”

    But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate.

    Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind.

    Hard Choices, Hard Landings

    The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks.

    While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession).

    What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant).

    History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies.

    Sticky Stagflation

    In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral.

    Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction.

    This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth.

    Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc.

    Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade.

    On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable.

    The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods.

    Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise.

    The Worst of All Possible Economies

    When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing.

    Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis.

    While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent.

    The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture.

    Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate.

    With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates.

    How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates.

    For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage.

    The Moment of Truth

    In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one).

    And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters.

    How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust.

    In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix.

    Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse.

    Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.
    The Age of Megathreats Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022 op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be. Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.” Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies. Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries. Goodbye to All That Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII. There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb. Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini. Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More. For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15. Subscribe Now With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea. Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any. Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy. There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia. Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.” But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate. Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind. Hard Choices, Hard Landings The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks. While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession). What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant). History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies. Sticky Stagflation In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral. Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction. This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth. Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc. Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade. On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable. The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods. Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise. The Worst of All Possible Economies When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing. Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis. While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent. The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture. Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate. With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates. How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates. For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage. The Moment of Truth In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one). And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters. How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust. In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix. Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse. Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.
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  • The Age of Megathreats
    Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022
    op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images
    NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be.

    Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.”

    Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies.

    Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries.

    Goodbye to All That

    Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII.

    There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb.


    Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini.

    Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More.

    For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15.

    Subscribe Now

    With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea.

    Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any.

    Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy.

    There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia.

    Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.”

    But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate.

    Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind.

    Hard Choices, Hard Landings

    The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks.

    While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession).

    What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant).

    History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies.

    Sticky Stagflation

    In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral.

    Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction.

    This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth.

    Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc.

    Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade.

    On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable.

    The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods.

    Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise.

    The Worst of All Possible Economies

    When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing.

    Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis.

    While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent.

    The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture.

    Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate.

    With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates.

    How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates.

    For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage.

    The Moment of Truth

    In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one).

    And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters.

    How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust.

    In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix.

    Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse.

    Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.
    The Age of Megathreats Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022 op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be. Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.” Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies. Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries. Goodbye to All That Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII. There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb. Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini. Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More. For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15. Subscribe Now With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea. Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any. Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy. There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia. Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.” But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate. Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind. Hard Choices, Hard Landings The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks. While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession). What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant). History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies. Sticky Stagflation In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral. Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction. This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth. Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc. Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade. On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable. The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods. Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise. The Worst of All Possible Economies When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing. Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis. While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent. The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture. Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate. With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates. How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates. For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage. The Moment of Truth In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one). And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters. How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust. In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix. Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse. Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.
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