• 64 US Bank Branches File To Shut Down In A Single Week; Are You Affected?
    November 27, 2023
    By Naveen Athrappully

    Big banks such as PNC Bank and JPMorgan Chase have filed to close several branch offices in multiple states amid a troubling pattern of rising branch shutdowns in recent years.

    Between Nov. 12 and 18, several banks filed to close branch locations, with PNC Bank with the most filings, according to data from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Pittsburgh-based PNC Bank filed for 19 branch closures—five in Pennsylvania, four in Illinois, three in Texas, two each in Alabama and New Jersey, and one each in Indiana, Ohio, and Florida.

    JPMorgan Chase followed closely with 18 filings—three in Ohio, two each in Connecticut and South Carolina, and one each in 11 states, including New York, Illinois, Florida, and Massachusetts.

    Citizens Bank came in third with eight branch closure filings—six in New York, and one each in Massachusetts and Delaware. Minneapolis-based U.S. Bank filed for seven closures—three in Tennessee and one each in Missouri, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Illinois.

    Bank of America made five filings—two in New York and one each in Texas, Massachusetts, and California.

    Citibank filed for two branch closures, and Sterling, Bremer, First National Bank of Hughes Springs, Windsor FS&LA, and Aroostook County FS&LA made one filing each.

    Altogether, banks filed to shut down 64 branches.

    The recent closures are part of a long-term branch shutdown trend that has been ongoing over the past several years. A report from the National Community Reinvestment Coalition shows that between 2017 and 2021, 9 percent of all bank branches shut down. The closure rate doubled during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    According to data from S&P, there were 3,012 branch closures last year and 958 branch openings, leading to a net closure of 2,054 branches. This was the third consecutive year that net closings exceeded 2,000.

    One major factor that led to a surge in branch closures is the rise of digital banking, a trend that accelerated during the pandemic when people were stuck at their homes.

    A survey by the American Banking Association (ABA) conducted in September showed that 8 in 10 Americans used a mobile device to manage their bank accounts at least once in the previous month.

    Activist Post is Google-Free — We Need Your Support
    Contribute Just $1 Per Month at Patreon or SubscribeStar

    “Digital banking tools have made it more convenient and more secure than ever for consumers to manage their finances,” Brooke Ybarra, ABA’s senior vice president of innovation strategy, said, according to a Nov. 3 statement.

    Cost Saving, Negative Effects

    Going digital rather than expanding physical branch locations is also part of a cost-saving strategy for banking institutions. Opening a new site costs millions of dollars and several hundreds of thousands in annual recurring costs.

    Most of the operations done via a physical bank can now be done online. Digital transactions are cheaper than the costs incurred in transacting via bank tellers.

    On the flip side, the shutdown of bank branches can negatively affect customers, especially in small towns. Due to such closures, many towns have become “bank deserts,” where the nearest bank is more than 10 miles away.

    “When bank branches close, there are several adverse effects on the surrounding community. Small business lending and activity in the area declines. More people use alternative financial services that open them to unregulated and predatory financial practices. An important commercial tenant and employer are lost,” the National Community Reinvestment Coalition report said.

    “While consumers have embraced mobile and internet banking to one degree or another, they clarify that branches matter to them as well, and without branches nearby, they are more likely to be un- or under-banked.”

    A recent survey by Daily Mail found that 51 percent of Americans were either “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” about the closure of bank branches.

    PNC Bank Closure

    PNC Bank registered the largest number of closure filings amid its heightened focus on cost-saving measures. During its second-quarter earnings call, CEO William S. Demchak said the bank is “going to have to take a hard look” at where it can “generate savings … without cutting the potential for growth.”

    At the time, Chief Financial Officer Robert Q. Reilly revealed that the institution was boosting the target of an expense reduction program by $50 million to $450 million. For next year, PNC Bank is targeting $725 million in expense cuts.

    PNC is the sixth-largest U.S. bank. The 19 branches that will be shut down are:

    202 N. Walnut St., Bath, Pennsylvania
    301 W. Trenton Ave., Morrisville, Pennsylvania
    14 N. Main St., Plains, Pennsylvania
    1969 E. 3rd St., Williamsport, Pennsylvania
    2 N. Mill St., New Castle, Pennsylvania
    321 Bel Air Blvd., Mobile, Alabama
    2811 Eastern Blvd., Montgomery, Alabama
    5650 S. Brainard Avenue, Countryside, Illinois
    2217 W. Market St., Bloomington, Illinois
    1949 E. Sangamon Ave., Springfield, Illinois
    505 West Liberty Street, Wauconda, Illinois
    8733 U.S. Highway 31 South, Indianapolis, Indiana
    528 Station Ave., Hadden Heights, New Jersey
    410 Main St., Orange, New Jersey
    115 E. Van Buren Ave., Harlingen, Texas
    407 S. Commerce St., Harlingen, Texas
    801 W. Kearney St., Mesquite, Texas
    1040 Mt. Vernon Ave., Columbus, Ohio
    1140 N. Main St., Gainesville, Florida
    In June, PNC shut 47 branches, followed by 29 closures in August. A spokesperson told The U.S. Sun at the time that the bank intends to shut down 147 locations as it focuses more on online banking. The closures were expected to make 60 percent of PNC’s banking business exclusively online.

    A spokesperson from the bank told the Philadelphia Business Journal that the 19 bank closures will take place on Feb. 16.

    Last month, the bank reported a drop in third-quarter profits and declared cutting roughly 4 percent of its workforce. The layoffs, which began on Oct. 6, will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter. The job cuts are expected to bring down the bank’s yearly personnel expenses by roughly $325 million or 5 percent.


    Above Phone De-Googled Private Communications: SHOP
    The bank also forecasts that its net interest income—the difference between the interest it receives on loans and the interest it pays on deposits—will shrink by 1 to 2 percent from current levels in quarter four. During the third quarter, net interest income had declined by 3 percent.

    “They (PNC Bank) recognize that there is definitely a headwind to the growth and their net interest income, mainly due to the higher deposit rates and higher funding costs,” Timothy Coffey, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott, told Reuters.

    “And so they’re trying to alleviate some of that headwind by doing what they can to cut their own non-interest expenses as a way to maintain their earnings.”

    Source: The Epoch Times via ZeroHedge

    Naveen Athrappully is a news reporter covering business and world events at The Epoch Times.

    Image: Pixabay

    Or support us at SubscribeStar
    Donate cryptocurrency HERE

    Subscribe to Activist Post for truth, peace, and freedom news. Follow us on SoMee, Telegram, HIVE, Minds, MeWe, Twitter – X, Gab, and What Really Happened.

    Provide, Protect and Profit from what’s coming! Get a free issue of Counter Markets today.

    https://www.activistpost.com/2023/11/64-us-bank-branches-file-to-shut-down-in-a-single-week-are-you-affected.html
    64 US Bank Branches File To Shut Down In A Single Week; Are You Affected? November 27, 2023 By Naveen Athrappully Big banks such as PNC Bank and JPMorgan Chase have filed to close several branch offices in multiple states amid a troubling pattern of rising branch shutdowns in recent years. Between Nov. 12 and 18, several banks filed to close branch locations, with PNC Bank with the most filings, according to data from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Pittsburgh-based PNC Bank filed for 19 branch closures—five in Pennsylvania, four in Illinois, three in Texas, two each in Alabama and New Jersey, and one each in Indiana, Ohio, and Florida. JPMorgan Chase followed closely with 18 filings—three in Ohio, two each in Connecticut and South Carolina, and one each in 11 states, including New York, Illinois, Florida, and Massachusetts. Citizens Bank came in third with eight branch closure filings—six in New York, and one each in Massachusetts and Delaware. Minneapolis-based U.S. Bank filed for seven closures—three in Tennessee and one each in Missouri, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Illinois. Bank of America made five filings—two in New York and one each in Texas, Massachusetts, and California. Citibank filed for two branch closures, and Sterling, Bremer, First National Bank of Hughes Springs, Windsor FS&LA, and Aroostook County FS&LA made one filing each. Altogether, banks filed to shut down 64 branches. The recent closures are part of a long-term branch shutdown trend that has been ongoing over the past several years. A report from the National Community Reinvestment Coalition shows that between 2017 and 2021, 9 percent of all bank branches shut down. The closure rate doubled during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to data from S&P, there were 3,012 branch closures last year and 958 branch openings, leading to a net closure of 2,054 branches. This was the third consecutive year that net closings exceeded 2,000. One major factor that led to a surge in branch closures is the rise of digital banking, a trend that accelerated during the pandemic when people were stuck at their homes. A survey by the American Banking Association (ABA) conducted in September showed that 8 in 10 Americans used a mobile device to manage their bank accounts at least once in the previous month. Activist Post is Google-Free — We Need Your Support Contribute Just $1 Per Month at Patreon or SubscribeStar “Digital banking tools have made it more convenient and more secure than ever for consumers to manage their finances,” Brooke Ybarra, ABA’s senior vice president of innovation strategy, said, according to a Nov. 3 statement. Cost Saving, Negative Effects Going digital rather than expanding physical branch locations is also part of a cost-saving strategy for banking institutions. Opening a new site costs millions of dollars and several hundreds of thousands in annual recurring costs. Most of the operations done via a physical bank can now be done online. Digital transactions are cheaper than the costs incurred in transacting via bank tellers. On the flip side, the shutdown of bank branches can negatively affect customers, especially in small towns. Due to such closures, many towns have become “bank deserts,” where the nearest bank is more than 10 miles away. “When bank branches close, there are several adverse effects on the surrounding community. Small business lending and activity in the area declines. More people use alternative financial services that open them to unregulated and predatory financial practices. An important commercial tenant and employer are lost,” the National Community Reinvestment Coalition report said. “While consumers have embraced mobile and internet banking to one degree or another, they clarify that branches matter to them as well, and without branches nearby, they are more likely to be un- or under-banked.” A recent survey by Daily Mail found that 51 percent of Americans were either “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” about the closure of bank branches. PNC Bank Closure PNC Bank registered the largest number of closure filings amid its heightened focus on cost-saving measures. During its second-quarter earnings call, CEO William S. Demchak said the bank is “going to have to take a hard look” at where it can “generate savings … without cutting the potential for growth.” At the time, Chief Financial Officer Robert Q. Reilly revealed that the institution was boosting the target of an expense reduction program by $50 million to $450 million. For next year, PNC Bank is targeting $725 million in expense cuts. PNC is the sixth-largest U.S. bank. The 19 branches that will be shut down are: 202 N. Walnut St., Bath, Pennsylvania 301 W. Trenton Ave., Morrisville, Pennsylvania 14 N. Main St., Plains, Pennsylvania 1969 E. 3rd St., Williamsport, Pennsylvania 2 N. Mill St., New Castle, Pennsylvania 321 Bel Air Blvd., Mobile, Alabama 2811 Eastern Blvd., Montgomery, Alabama 5650 S. Brainard Avenue, Countryside, Illinois 2217 W. Market St., Bloomington, Illinois 1949 E. Sangamon Ave., Springfield, Illinois 505 West Liberty Street, Wauconda, Illinois 8733 U.S. Highway 31 South, Indianapolis, Indiana 528 Station Ave., Hadden Heights, New Jersey 410 Main St., Orange, New Jersey 115 E. Van Buren Ave., Harlingen, Texas 407 S. Commerce St., Harlingen, Texas 801 W. Kearney St., Mesquite, Texas 1040 Mt. Vernon Ave., Columbus, Ohio 1140 N. Main St., Gainesville, Florida In June, PNC shut 47 branches, followed by 29 closures in August. A spokesperson told The U.S. Sun at the time that the bank intends to shut down 147 locations as it focuses more on online banking. The closures were expected to make 60 percent of PNC’s banking business exclusively online. A spokesperson from the bank told the Philadelphia Business Journal that the 19 bank closures will take place on Feb. 16. Last month, the bank reported a drop in third-quarter profits and declared cutting roughly 4 percent of its workforce. The layoffs, which began on Oct. 6, will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter. The job cuts are expected to bring down the bank’s yearly personnel expenses by roughly $325 million or 5 percent. Above Phone De-Googled Private Communications: SHOP The bank also forecasts that its net interest income—the difference between the interest it receives on loans and the interest it pays on deposits—will shrink by 1 to 2 percent from current levels in quarter four. During the third quarter, net interest income had declined by 3 percent. “They (PNC Bank) recognize that there is definitely a headwind to the growth and their net interest income, mainly due to the higher deposit rates and higher funding costs,” Timothy Coffey, an analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott, told Reuters. “And so they’re trying to alleviate some of that headwind by doing what they can to cut their own non-interest expenses as a way to maintain their earnings.” Source: The Epoch Times via ZeroHedge Naveen Athrappully is a news reporter covering business and world events at The Epoch Times. Image: Pixabay Or support us at SubscribeStar Donate cryptocurrency HERE Subscribe to Activist Post for truth, peace, and freedom news. Follow us on SoMee, Telegram, HIVE, Minds, MeWe, Twitter – X, Gab, and What Really Happened. Provide, Protect and Profit from what’s coming! Get a free issue of Counter Markets today. https://www.activistpost.com/2023/11/64-us-bank-branches-file-to-shut-down-in-a-single-week-are-you-affected.html
    WWW.ACTIVISTPOST.COM
    64 US Bank Branches File To Shut Down In A Single Week; Are You Affected? - Activist Post
    Multiple states continue a troubling pattern of rising branch shutdowns in recent years.
    0 Comments 0 Shares 631 Views
  • Embrace the digital marketplace with us! Whether you're buying or selling, our platform is the ultimate gateway to top-notch opportunities in the digital business landscape. Dive into innovation, elevate your strategies, and thrive in the world of online commerce! #DigitalBusiness #InnovationHub
    https://sites.google.com/view/webwizardrywisdom/home
    🌟 Embrace the digital marketplace with us! πŸ’Ό Whether you're buying or selling, our platform is the ultimate gateway to top-notch opportunities in the digital business landscape. Dive into innovation, elevate your strategies, and thrive in the world of online commerce! πŸ’»βœ¨ #DigitalBusiness #InnovationHub https://sites.google.com/view/webwizardrywisdom/home
    WebWizardryWisdom
    re you ready to take the next step in selling your Technology, Internet, or Digital Business? Look no further – Website Closers is the industry leader, backed by a team of highly trained and skilled intermediaries with extensive experience in various Digital Business Models. Why Choose Website
    0 Comments 1 Shares 149 Views
  • Step into the World of Design Marvels! Furniture Fairs: Your Gateway to Inspiration, Innovation, and Elegance! Discover the Fusion of Art and Functionality at its Finest! Dive into the Latest Trends, Craftsmanship, and Futuristic Designs! Join Us in Unveiling Tomorrow's Furnishing Wonders Today! #FurnitureFairs #DesignInnovation #InteriorInspiration





    🌟 Step into the World of Design Marvels! πŸ›‹οΈβœ¨ Furniture Fairs: Your Gateway to Inspiration, Innovation, and Elegance! Discover the Fusion of Art and Functionality at its Finest! Dive into the Latest Trends, Craftsmanship, and Futuristic Designs! Join Us in Unveiling Tomorrow's Furnishing Wonders Today! 🌐🎨 #FurnitureFairs #DesignInnovation #InteriorInspiration
    0 Comments 1 Shares 157 Views
  • Dear Valued SoMee.Social and SoMee AI Community,

    As Thanksgiving approaches, I want to take a moment to express my deepest gratitude to each and every one of you. Your unwavering support and belief in our vision continue to be the driving force behind everything we do.

    This year, like any other, has had its share of challenges. We've seen some FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) within our community, but it's important to remember that together, we are resilient. Our strength lies in our unity and shared belief in the transformative power of social media and AI technology.

    I am incredibly thankful for this community's spirit, your constructive feedback, and your enduring commitment. It's your engagement and trust that fuel our continuous growth and innovation. As we celebrate this Thanksgiving, let's reflect on our journey, the hurdles we've overcome, and the exciting path that lies ahead.

    Let's continue to stand strong together, fostering a community that's not just about technology, but also about people, connections, and shared experiences. Here's to a future that we are building together – one that's inclusive, empowering, and groundbreaking.

    Wishing you and your loved ones a Happy Thanksgiving filled with joy, peace, and prosperity.

    Warm regards,

    Christopher Kramer
    CEO, SoMee.Social and SoMee AI
    Dear Valued SoMee.Social and SoMee AI Community, As Thanksgiving approaches, I want to take a moment to express my deepest gratitude to each and every one of you. Your unwavering support and belief in our vision continue to be the driving force behind everything we do. This year, like any other, has had its share of challenges. We've seen some FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) within our community, but it's important to remember that together, we are resilient. Our strength lies in our unity and shared belief in the transformative power of social media and AI technology. I am incredibly thankful for this community's spirit, your constructive feedback, and your enduring commitment. It's your engagement and trust that fuel our continuous growth and innovation. As we celebrate this Thanksgiving, let's reflect on our journey, the hurdles we've overcome, and the exciting path that lies ahead. Let's continue to stand strong together, fostering a community that's not just about technology, but also about people, connections, and shared experiences. Here's to a future that we are building together – one that's inclusive, empowering, and groundbreaking. Wishing you and your loved ones a Happy Thanksgiving filled with joy, peace, and prosperity. Warm regards, Christopher Kramer CEO, SoMee.Social and SoMee AI
    Like
    Love
    11
    3 Comments 0 Shares 1483 Views
  • Elevate Your Space with Sleek Messina Gloss Doors - Shop Now

    Discover the perfect blend of modern style and functionality with Messina Gloss Doors. Transform your living spaces with these high-quality, glossy finish doors that add a touch of sophistication. Explore a variety of designs and sizes to suit your aesthetic preferences. Upgrade your home effortlessly with Messina Gloss Doors – where elegance meets innovation.

    https://kitchenexperts.co.uk/product/messina-gloss-doors-2/
    Elevate Your Space with Sleek Messina Gloss Doors - Shop Now Discover the perfect blend of modern style and functionality with Messina Gloss Doors. Transform your living spaces with these high-quality, glossy finish doors that add a touch of sophistication. Explore a variety of designs and sizes to suit your aesthetic preferences. Upgrade your home effortlessly with Messina Gloss Doors – where elegance meets innovation. https://kitchenexperts.co.uk/product/messina-gloss-doors-2/
    0 Comments 0 Shares 511 Views
  • Have you ever thought about turning a small investment into $500, $1K, or even more overnight? Well, guess what? You can, and the opportunity is right here, right now!

    If you’re wondering where to put your energy, getting into the law niche is a smart move for your online adventure. It’s a niche with lots of demand, which is awesome for your online business.

    But starting something new can be a bit overwhelming, especially if you’re not sure where to begin.

    That’s where Attorney Marketing Suite Vol.1 comes in as your savior. Think of it like a secret weapon to guide you through all the marketing stuff in this niche.

    Attorney Marketing Suite Vol.1 gives you a simpler and more successful marketing journey, even if you’re just starting and don’t know all the details yet.

    Don’t miss this chance to embark on an exciting journey with Bongoinfo, as I have prepared a wide range of handy bonuses + extra resources for you at the end of the post as well. Let’s get started!

    Read Details Here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/attorney-marketing-suite-vol1-review-bongoinfo-pqj7c

    #LegalMarketingSuccess #AttorneyMarketingSuite #LegalIndustryRevolution #DigitalMarketingforLawyers #LawFirmBoost #LegalVisibility #MarketingMagic #ClientGettingStrategies #LegalNicheDominance #WebAgencyFortune #DawnVuCreators #LawFirmOnlinePresence #SocialMediaForAttorneys #SEOforLawyers #LegalMarketingMaterials #LawyerWebDesign #BankruptcyAttorney #FamilyLawMarketing #AttorneyVideos #MarketingSuiteSuccess #LegalServicesElevated #DFYMarketing #LegalContentStrategies #LawFirmGrowth #ClientEngagementTips #ProfitableLegalMarketing #AttorneyBusinessSuccess #WebAgencyFortuneProducts #LegalMarketingAgency #DigitalMarketingMastery #WebMagic #BoostYourTraffic #SEOforSuccess #SearchEngineMagic #GoogenieLaunch #SEORevolution #DigitalDreams #WishGrantedSEO #AffiliateMagic #SEOTools #GoogenieContest #WinWithGoogenie #SaturdayMagicLaunch #innovation #management #digitalmarketing #technology #creativity #futurism #startups #marketing #socialmedia #socialnetworking #motivation #personaldevelopment #jobinterviews #sustainability #personalbranding #education #productivity #travel #sales #socialentrepreneurship #fundraising #law #strategy #culture #fashion #business #networking #hiring #health #inspiration
    Have you ever thought about turning a small investment into $500, $1K, or even more overnight? Well, guess what? You can, and the opportunity is right here, right now! If you’re wondering where to put your energy, getting into the law niche is a smart move for your online adventure. It’s a niche with lots of demand, which is awesome for your online business. But starting something new can be a bit overwhelming, especially if you’re not sure where to begin. That’s where Attorney Marketing Suite Vol.1 comes in as your savior. Think of it like a secret weapon to guide you through all the marketing stuff in this niche. Attorney Marketing Suite Vol.1 gives you a simpler and more successful marketing journey, even if you’re just starting and don’t know all the details yet. Don’t miss this chance to embark on an exciting journey with Bongoinfo, as I have prepared a wide range of handy bonuses + extra resources for you at the end of the post as well. Let’s get started! Read Details Here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/attorney-marketing-suite-vol1-review-bongoinfo-pqj7c #LegalMarketingSuccess #AttorneyMarketingSuite #LegalIndustryRevolution #DigitalMarketingforLawyers #LawFirmBoost #LegalVisibility #MarketingMagic #ClientGettingStrategies #LegalNicheDominance #WebAgencyFortune #DawnVuCreators #LawFirmOnlinePresence #SocialMediaForAttorneys #SEOforLawyers #LegalMarketingMaterials #LawyerWebDesign #BankruptcyAttorney #FamilyLawMarketing #AttorneyVideos #MarketingSuiteSuccess #LegalServicesElevated #DFYMarketing #LegalContentStrategies #LawFirmGrowth #ClientEngagementTips #ProfitableLegalMarketing #AttorneyBusinessSuccess #WebAgencyFortuneProducts #LegalMarketingAgency #DigitalMarketingMastery #WebMagic #BoostYourTraffic #SEOforSuccess #SearchEngineMagic #GoogenieLaunch #SEORevolution #DigitalDreams #WishGrantedSEO #AffiliateMagic #SEOTools #GoogenieContest #WinWithGoogenie #SaturdayMagicLaunch #innovation #management #digitalmarketing #technology #creativity #futurism #startups #marketing #socialmedia #socialnetworking #motivation #personaldevelopment #jobinterviews #sustainability #personalbranding #education #productivity #travel #sales #socialentrepreneurship #fundraising #law #strategy #culture #fashion #business #networking #hiring #health #inspiration
    WWW.LINKEDIN.COM
    Attorney Marketing Suite Vol.1 Review
    Unlock unparalleled success in legal marketing with the all-encompassing Attorney Marketing Suite Vol.1.
    0 Comments 0 Shares 4983 Views
  • Project Serenity
    **I. Introduction**

    A. **Brief Overview of Project Serenity:**
    Project Serenity is a visionary initiative aimed at navigating the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrencies. With a focus on strategic investments and market insights, the project seeks to optimize returns in the ever-evolving world of digital assets.

    B. **Importance of Identifying Top Ranked Cryptocurrency:**
    Recognizing the top-ranked cryptocurrency is pivotal for Project Serenity's success. The selected digital asset will serve as a cornerstone in the portfolio, providing stability, growth potential, and alignment with the overarching goals of the project.

    **II. Criteria for Ranking**

    A. **Market Capitalization:**
    Evaluating the market capitalization will offer insights into the overall value and perceived significance of a cryptocurrency within the broader market.

    B. **Price Performance:**
    Monitoring the historical and current price performance provides a crucial gauge of market sentiment, investor confidence, and potential returns.

    C. **Technological Innovation:**
    Assessing the technological innovation behind a cryptocurrency is essential. Advancements in blockchain technology and unique features contribute to sustained relevance and adoption.

    D. **Community Support:**
    The strength of community support reflects the level of engagement, trust, and advocacy surrounding a cryptocurrency. A robust community enhances the likelihood of sustained success.

    E. **Regulatory Environment:**
    Understanding the regulatory landscape is paramount. Compliance and adaptability to regulatory changes play a pivotal role in the long-term viability of a cryptocurrency within Project Serenity.

    **III. Historical Performance**

    A. **Overview of Historical Trends:**
    Examining historical trends provides valuable context for understanding how cryptocurrencies have evolved, helping Project Serenity make informed decisions.

    B. **Previous Top-Ranked Cryptocurrencies:**
    Analyzing past top-ranked cryptocurrencies offers insights into their trajectories, successes, and challenges, informing the selection criteria for Project Serenity.

    C. **Factors Influencing Changes in Rankings:**
    Identifying the factors that have historically influenced changes in cryptocurrency rankings is crucial for anticipating market dynamics and making proactive adjustments within Project Serenity's strategy.
    Project Serenity **I. Introduction** A. **Brief Overview of Project Serenity:** Project Serenity is a visionary initiative aimed at navigating the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrencies. With a focus on strategic investments and market insights, the project seeks to optimize returns in the ever-evolving world of digital assets. B. **Importance of Identifying Top Ranked Cryptocurrency:** Recognizing the top-ranked cryptocurrency is pivotal for Project Serenity's success. The selected digital asset will serve as a cornerstone in the portfolio, providing stability, growth potential, and alignment with the overarching goals of the project. **II. Criteria for Ranking** A. **Market Capitalization:** Evaluating the market capitalization will offer insights into the overall value and perceived significance of a cryptocurrency within the broader market. B. **Price Performance:** Monitoring the historical and current price performance provides a crucial gauge of market sentiment, investor confidence, and potential returns. C. **Technological Innovation:** Assessing the technological innovation behind a cryptocurrency is essential. Advancements in blockchain technology and unique features contribute to sustained relevance and adoption. D. **Community Support:** The strength of community support reflects the level of engagement, trust, and advocacy surrounding a cryptocurrency. A robust community enhances the likelihood of sustained success. E. **Regulatory Environment:** Understanding the regulatory landscape is paramount. Compliance and adaptability to regulatory changes play a pivotal role in the long-term viability of a cryptocurrency within Project Serenity. **III. Historical Performance** A. **Overview of Historical Trends:** Examining historical trends provides valuable context for understanding how cryptocurrencies have evolved, helping Project Serenity make informed decisions. B. **Previous Top-Ranked Cryptocurrencies:** Analyzing past top-ranked cryptocurrencies offers insights into their trajectories, successes, and challenges, informing the selection criteria for Project Serenity. C. **Factors Influencing Changes in Rankings:** Identifying the factors that have historically influenced changes in cryptocurrency rankings is crucial for anticipating market dynamics and making proactive adjustments within Project Serenity's strategy.
    0 Comments 0 Shares 2703 Views
  • Certainly, but keep in mind that the details would be fictional as of my last update in January 2022. Here's a generalized outline for "Project Serenity's Top Ranked Crypto":

    I. Introduction
    A. Brief Overview of Project Serenity
    B. Importance of Identifying Top Ranked Cryptocurrency

    II. Criteria for Ranking
    A. Market Capitalization
    B. Price Performance
    C. Technological Innovation
    D. Community Support
    E. Regulatory Environment

    III. Historical Performance
    A. Overview of Historical Trends
    B. Previous Top-Ranked Cryptocurrencies
    C. Factors Influencing Changes in Rankings

    IV. Current Top-Ranked Cryptocurrency
    A. Detailed Analysis of the Current Leader
    B. Factors Contributing to Its Top Position

    V. Future Trends and Projections
    A. Emerging Cryptocurrencies
    B. Potential Disruptors and Innovations
    C. Market Dynamics and Influencing Factors

    VI. Risks and Challenges
    A. Market Volatility
    B. Regulatory Risks
    C. Technological Challenges

    VII. Project Serenity's Strategy
    A. Alignment with Top-Ranked Cryptocurrency
    B. Mitigation Strategies for Risks
    C. Potential Collaborations or Investments

    VIII. Conclusion
    A. Summary of Findings
    B. Recommendations for Project Serenity's Approach

    Remember, this is a fictional outline, and you may need to adapt it based on the specific goals and context of your Project Serenity. Click here to get it
    https://www.digistore24.com/redir/307348/Abrar769/
    Certainly, but keep in mind that the details would be fictional as of my last update in January 2022. Here's a generalized outline for "Project Serenity's Top Ranked Crypto": I. Introduction A. Brief Overview of Project Serenity B. Importance of Identifying Top Ranked Cryptocurrency II. Criteria for Ranking A. Market Capitalization B. Price Performance C. Technological Innovation D. Community Support E. Regulatory Environment III. Historical Performance A. Overview of Historical Trends B. Previous Top-Ranked Cryptocurrencies C. Factors Influencing Changes in Rankings IV. Current Top-Ranked Cryptocurrency A. Detailed Analysis of the Current Leader B. Factors Contributing to Its Top Position V. Future Trends and Projections A. Emerging Cryptocurrencies B. Potential Disruptors and Innovations C. Market Dynamics and Influencing Factors VI. Risks and Challenges A. Market Volatility B. Regulatory Risks C. Technological Challenges VII. Project Serenity's Strategy A. Alignment with Top-Ranked Cryptocurrency B. Mitigation Strategies for Risks C. Potential Collaborations or Investments VIII. Conclusion A. Summary of Findings B. Recommendations for Project Serenity's Approach Remember, this is a fictional outline, and you may need to adapt it based on the specific goals and context of your Project Serenity. Click here to get it https://www.digistore24.com/redir/307348/Abrar769/
    0 Comments 0 Shares 1954 Views
  • Exciting news! You have a chance to win the iPhone 14 giveaway! Get ready to experience cutting-edge technology with the latest iPhone.Don't miss your chance to own the incredible iPhone 14 – a device that redefines innovation! Good luck!Enter to win>>> https://tinyurl.com/Giveaw4yiphone14

    #Giveaway #iPhone14 #TechRevolution
    #iPhone15promax #iPhone15 #fyptrending
    #Trending
    #meditantespodcast
    #bulliondefi
    #meditação
    #meditantes
    #podcast
    πŸ“± Exciting news! 🌟 You have a chance to win the iPhone 14 giveaway! πŸŽ‰ Get ready to experience cutting-edge technology with the latest iPhone.πŸ†Don't miss your chance to own the incredible iPhone 14 – a device that redefines innovation! Good luck!πŸ€Enter to win>>> https://tinyurl.com/Giveaw4yiphone14 πŸ‘ˆ #Giveaway #iPhone14 #TechRevolution #iPhone15promax #iPhone15 #fyptrending #Trending #meditantespodcast #bulliondefi #meditação #meditantes #podcast
    Like
    Love
    3
    1 Comments 0 Shares 1948 Views
  • Dubai’s Fresh Market opens first-ever display of Israeli produce including fruit and vegetables
    Staff Report
    Published: November 14, 2020 14:47
    The fresh products from Israel to the UAE market has a significant advantage

    Follow us

    israeli produce-1605350830691
    Shlomi Fogel, Chairman of Carmel Agrexco and Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Group Chairman and CEO of DP World, at the opening of the first-ever stall for the Israeli agriculture products in Dubai.
    Dubai: The Fresh Market in Dubai’s Ras Al Khor area run by Dubai Municipality opened the first-ever display of Israeli produce on Saturday.

    Located on Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed road, near Dragon Mart, the Fresh Market has played a key role in raising Dubai’s position as a regional hub for the trading and sale of local and imported produce.

    Read More

    UAE, Israel sign treaty on mutual entry visa exemption
    UAE underscores need to leverage Israel peace accord to break deadlock in Middle East peace process
    The event was also attended by Shlomi Fogel, Chairman of Carmel Agrexco, one of Israel’s largest exporters of agricultural produce. “We are excited to be part of the growing ties between Israel and the UAE. Together with our colleagues in Dubai, we are beginning to see the ‘fruits of peace’ today.

    “The export of fresh agricultural products from Israel to the UAE market has a significant advantage because of the geographical closeness and the speed with which the products can be transported directly to markets in the UAE and beyond. Within few hours of picking, the fresh produce can reach points of sale. It’s a fact that Israeli agriculture is highly advanced and we are confident that everyone will enjoy our produce,” Fogel said.



    Who attended


    According to Dubai Media office press release on Saturday, the opening event was attended by Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Group Chairman and CEO of DP World; Essa Abdul Rahman Al Hashemi, Head at the Food Security Office, the Prime Minister’s Office; Mohammed Al Dhanhani, Director of Agricultural Development and Health at the Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (MOCCAE); Adel Sayed Al Hashemi, Director of the Dubai Zone at MOCCAE; Mohammed Al Muallem, CEO & Managing Director, DP World — UAE Region; Ahmed Mahboob Musabih, Director General of Dubai Customs; Khalid Mohammed Sharif Al Awadhi, CEO of Dubai Municipality’s Health, Safety and Environment Sector, and other UAE officials.

    Reciprocal initiatives


    The UAE and Israel have agreed to undertake reciprocal initiatives to establish diplomatic and business links, promote investment and tourism and launch direct flights connecting the two countries. The introduction of Israeli produce adds to Dubai’s drive to diversify the sources of imported produce in the UAE.

    Fogel added that Carmel Agrexco intends to invest in agricultural farms in the UAE, incorporating the latest innovations in agro-technology.


    https://gulfnews.com/uae/dubais-fresh-market-opens-first-ever-display-of-israeli-produce-including-fruit-and-vegetables-1.75275398
    Dubai’s Fresh Market opens first-ever display of Israeli produce including fruit and vegetables Staff Report Published: November 14, 2020 14:47 The fresh products from Israel to the UAE market has a significant advantage Follow us israeli produce-1605350830691 Shlomi Fogel, Chairman of Carmel Agrexco and Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Group Chairman and CEO of DP World, at the opening of the first-ever stall for the Israeli agriculture products in Dubai. Dubai: The Fresh Market in Dubai’s Ras Al Khor area run by Dubai Municipality opened the first-ever display of Israeli produce on Saturday. Located on Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed road, near Dragon Mart, the Fresh Market has played a key role in raising Dubai’s position as a regional hub for the trading and sale of local and imported produce. Read More UAE, Israel sign treaty on mutual entry visa exemption UAE underscores need to leverage Israel peace accord to break deadlock in Middle East peace process The event was also attended by Shlomi Fogel, Chairman of Carmel Agrexco, one of Israel’s largest exporters of agricultural produce. “We are excited to be part of the growing ties between Israel and the UAE. Together with our colleagues in Dubai, we are beginning to see the ‘fruits of peace’ today. “The export of fresh agricultural products from Israel to the UAE market has a significant advantage because of the geographical closeness and the speed with which the products can be transported directly to markets in the UAE and beyond. Within few hours of picking, the fresh produce can reach points of sale. It’s a fact that Israeli agriculture is highly advanced and we are confident that everyone will enjoy our produce,” Fogel said. Who attended According to Dubai Media office press release on Saturday, the opening event was attended by Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Group Chairman and CEO of DP World; Essa Abdul Rahman Al Hashemi, Head at the Food Security Office, the Prime Minister’s Office; Mohammed Al Dhanhani, Director of Agricultural Development and Health at the Ministry of Climate Change and Environment (MOCCAE); Adel Sayed Al Hashemi, Director of the Dubai Zone at MOCCAE; Mohammed Al Muallem, CEO & Managing Director, DP World — UAE Region; Ahmed Mahboob Musabih, Director General of Dubai Customs; Khalid Mohammed Sharif Al Awadhi, CEO of Dubai Municipality’s Health, Safety and Environment Sector, and other UAE officials. Reciprocal initiatives The UAE and Israel have agreed to undertake reciprocal initiatives to establish diplomatic and business links, promote investment and tourism and launch direct flights connecting the two countries. The introduction of Israeli produce adds to Dubai’s drive to diversify the sources of imported produce in the UAE. Fogel added that Carmel Agrexco intends to invest in agricultural farms in the UAE, incorporating the latest innovations in agro-technology. https://gulfnews.com/uae/dubais-fresh-market-opens-first-ever-display-of-israeli-produce-including-fruit-and-vegetables-1.75275398
    GULFNEWS.COM
    Dubai’s Fresh Market opens first-ever display of Israeli produce including fruit and vegetables
    The fresh products from Israel to the UAE market has a significant advantage
    0 Comments 0 Shares 2225 Views
  • SALUTE TO AMERICA 250
    As we approach the monumental milestone of America's 250th birthday, let's embark on a journey of reflection, celebration, and unity! Join us in honoring the rich tapestry of our nation's history and the incredible journey that has shaped the Land of the Free.
    RINGING IN HISTORY: From the signing of the Declaration of Independence to the present day, each moment has woven a unique thread into the fabric of America. Together, let's salute the resilience, innovation, and the spirit of freedom that define us.
    IGNITING PATRIOTIC SPARKS: It's time to ignite the patriotic sparks within! Share your favorite American memories, traditions, or what makes you proud to be a part of this great nation. Use #SaluteToAmerica250 to connect and inspire others with your stories!
    CAPTURING AMERICA'S BEAUTY: America is not just a country; it's a breathtaking canvas of diverse landscapes and cultures. Share your snapshots of America's beauty, from sea to shining sea. Let's create a virtual gallery that reflects the heartbeat of our nation.
    UNITED WE STAND: In the true spirit of unity, let's bridge gaps and build connections. Reach out to someone with a different perspective, engage in meaningful conversations, and celebrate the diversity that makes America extraordinary.
    SOUNDTRACK TO THE STARS AND STRIPES: What's your ultimate playlist for this historic celebration? Share your favorite patriotic tunes, and let's create a playlist that resonates with the rhythm of America's journey.
    FUTURE FORWARD: As we commemorate our past, let's also look towards the future. What are your hopes and dreams for America's next 250 years? Share your visions for a brighter, more inclusive tomorrow.
    Together, let's make #SaluteToAmerica250 a vibrant tapestry of stories, memories, and aspirations. Whether you're a history buff, a proud patriot, or someone just discovering the beauty of the red, white, and blue, your voice matters. Let the celebration begin! #LandOfTheFree #HomeOfTheBrave
    Ready to Salute? Click here to join the celebration!:-https://sites.google.com/view/celebrateamerica250th/home
    πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έβœ¨ SALUTE TO AMERICA 250 βœ¨πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ As we approach the monumental milestone of America's 250th birthday, let's embark on a journey of reflection, celebration, and unity! πŸŽ‰βœ¨ Join us in honoring the rich tapestry of our nation's history and the incredible journey that has shaped the Land of the Free. πŸ”” RINGING IN HISTORY: From the signing of the Declaration of Independence to the present day, each moment has woven a unique thread into the fabric of America. Together, let's salute the resilience, innovation, and the spirit of freedom that define us. πŸŽ† IGNITING PATRIOTIC SPARKS: It's time to ignite the patriotic sparks within! Share your favorite American memories, traditions, or what makes you proud to be a part of this great nation. Use #SaluteToAmerica250 to connect and inspire others with your stories! πŸ“Έ CAPTURING AMERICA'S BEAUTY: America is not just a country; it's a breathtaking canvas of diverse landscapes and cultures. Share your snapshots of America's beauty, from sea to shining sea. Let's create a virtual gallery that reflects the heartbeat of our nation. 🀝 UNITED WE STAND: In the true spirit of unity, let's bridge gaps and build connections. Reach out to someone with a different perspective, engage in meaningful conversations, and celebrate the diversity that makes America extraordinary. 🎢 SOUNDTRACK TO THE STARS AND STRIPES: What's your ultimate playlist for this historic celebration? Share your favorite patriotic tunes, and let's create a playlist that resonates with the rhythm of America's journey. πŸŽ‡ FUTURE FORWARD: As we commemorate our past, let's also look towards the future. What are your hopes and dreams for America's next 250 years? Share your visions for a brighter, more inclusive tomorrow. Together, let's make #SaluteToAmerica250 a vibrant tapestry of stories, memories, and aspirations. Whether you're a history buff, a proud patriot, or someone just discovering the beauty of the red, white, and blue, your voice matters. Let the celebration begin! πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έβœ¨ #LandOfTheFree #HomeOfTheBrave Ready to Salute? Click here to join the celebration!:-https://sites.google.com/view/celebrateamerica250th/home
    0 Comments 0 Shares 2328 Views
  • SALUTE TO AMERICA 250
    As we approach the monumental milestone of America's 250th birthday, let's embark on a journey of reflection, celebration, and unity! Join us in honoring the rich tapestry of our nation's history and the incredible journey that has shaped the Land of the Free.

    RINGING IN HISTORY: From the signing of the Declaration of Independence to the present day, each moment has woven a unique thread into the fabric of America. Together, let's salute the resilience, innovation, and the spirit of freedom that define us.

    IGNITING PATRIOTIC SPARKS: It's time to ignite the patriotic sparks within! Share your favorite American memories, traditions, or what makes you proud to be a part of this great nation. Use #SaluteToAmerica250 to connect and inspire others with your stories!

    CAPTURING AMERICA'S BEAUTY: America is not just a country; it's a breathtaking canvas of diverse landscapes and cultures. Share your snapshots of America's beauty, from sea to shining sea. Let's create a virtual gallery that reflects the heartbeat of our nation.

    UNITED WE STAND: In the true spirit of unity, let's bridge gaps and build connections. Reach out to someone with a different perspective, engage in meaningful conversations, and celebrate the diversity that makes America extraordinary.

    SOUNDTRACK TO THE STARS AND STRIPES: What's your ultimate playlist for this historic celebration? Share your favorite patriotic tunes, and let's create a playlist that resonates with the rhythm of America's journey.

    FUTURE FORWARD: As we commemorate our past, let's also look towards the future. What are your hopes and dreams for America's next 250 years? Share your visions for a brighter, more inclusive tomorrow.

    Together, let's make #SaluteToAmerica250 a vibrant tapestry of stories, memories, and aspirations. Whether you're a history buff, a proud patriot, or someone just discovering the beauty of the red, white, and blue, your voice matters. Let the celebration begin! #LandOfTheFree #HomeOfTheBrave
    Ready to Salute? Click here to join the celebration!:-https://sites.google.com/view/celebrateamerica250th/home
    πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έβœ¨ SALUTE TO AMERICA 250 βœ¨πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ As we approach the monumental milestone of America's 250th birthday, let's embark on a journey of reflection, celebration, and unity! πŸŽ‰βœ¨ Join us in honoring the rich tapestry of our nation's history and the incredible journey that has shaped the Land of the Free. πŸ”” RINGING IN HISTORY: From the signing of the Declaration of Independence to the present day, each moment has woven a unique thread into the fabric of America. Together, let's salute the resilience, innovation, and the spirit of freedom that define us. πŸŽ† IGNITING PATRIOTIC SPARKS: It's time to ignite the patriotic sparks within! Share your favorite American memories, traditions, or what makes you proud to be a part of this great nation. Use #SaluteToAmerica250 to connect and inspire others with your stories! πŸ“Έ CAPTURING AMERICA'S BEAUTY: America is not just a country; it's a breathtaking canvas of diverse landscapes and cultures. Share your snapshots of America's beauty, from sea to shining sea. Let's create a virtual gallery that reflects the heartbeat of our nation. 🀝 UNITED WE STAND: In the true spirit of unity, let's bridge gaps and build connections. Reach out to someone with a different perspective, engage in meaningful conversations, and celebrate the diversity that makes America extraordinary. 🎢 SOUNDTRACK TO THE STARS AND STRIPES: What's your ultimate playlist for this historic celebration? Share your favorite patriotic tunes, and let's create a playlist that resonates with the rhythm of America's journey. πŸŽ‡ FUTURE FORWARD: As we commemorate our past, let's also look towards the future. What are your hopes and dreams for America's next 250 years? Share your visions for a brighter, more inclusive tomorrow. Together, let's make #SaluteToAmerica250 a vibrant tapestry of stories, memories, and aspirations. Whether you're a history buff, a proud patriot, or someone just discovering the beauty of the red, white, and blue, your voice matters. Let the celebration begin! πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έβœ¨ #LandOfTheFree #HomeOfTheBrave Ready to Salute? Click here to join the celebration!:-https://sites.google.com/view/celebrateamerica250th/home
    0 Comments 0 Shares 2228 Views
  • SALUTE TO AMERICA 250
    As we approach the monumental milestone of America's 250th birthday, let's embark on a journey of reflection, celebration, and unity! Join us in honoring the rich tapestry of our nation's history and the incredible journey that has shaped the Land of the Free.

    RINGING IN HISTORY: From the signing of the Declaration of Independence to the present day, each moment has woven a unique thread into the fabric of America. Together, let's salute the resilience, innovation, and the spirit of freedom that define us.

    IGNITING PATRIOTIC SPARKS: It's time to ignite the patriotic sparks within! Share your favorite American memories, traditions, or what makes you proud to be a part of this great nation. Use #SaluteToAmerica250 to connect and inspire others with your stories!

    CAPTURING AMERICA'S BEAUTY: America is not just a country; it's a breathtaking canvas of diverse landscapes and cultures. Share your snapshots of America's beauty, from sea to shining sea. Let's create a virtual gallery that reflects the heartbeat of our nation.

    UNITED WE STAND: In the true spirit of unity, let's bridge gaps and build connections. Reach out to someone with a different perspective, engage in meaningful conversations, and celebrate the diversity that makes America extraordinary.

    SOUNDTRACK TO THE STARS AND STRIPES: What's your ultimate playlist for this historic celebration? Share your favorite patriotic tunes, and let's create a playlist that resonates with the rhythm of America's journey.

    FUTURE FORWARD: As we commemorate our past, let's also look towards the future. What are your hopes and dreams for America's next 250 years? Share your visions for a brighter, more inclusive tomorrow.

    Together, let's make #SaluteToAmerica250 a vibrant tapestry of stories, memories, and aspirations. Whether you're a history buff, a proud patriot, or someone just discovering the beauty of the red, white, and blue, your voice matters. Let the celebration begin! #LandOfTheFree #HomeOfTheBrave
    Ready to Salute? Click here to join the celebration!:-https://sites.google.com/view/celebrateamerica250th/home
    πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έβœ¨ SALUTE TO AMERICA 250 βœ¨πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ As we approach the monumental milestone of America's 250th birthday, let's embark on a journey of reflection, celebration, and unity! πŸŽ‰βœ¨ Join us in honoring the rich tapestry of our nation's history and the incredible journey that has shaped the Land of the Free. πŸ”” RINGING IN HISTORY: From the signing of the Declaration of Independence to the present day, each moment has woven a unique thread into the fabric of America. Together, let's salute the resilience, innovation, and the spirit of freedom that define us. πŸŽ† IGNITING PATRIOTIC SPARKS: It's time to ignite the patriotic sparks within! Share your favorite American memories, traditions, or what makes you proud to be a part of this great nation. Use #SaluteToAmerica250 to connect and inspire others with your stories! πŸ“Έ CAPTURING AMERICA'S BEAUTY: America is not just a country; it's a breathtaking canvas of diverse landscapes and cultures. Share your snapshots of America's beauty, from sea to shining sea. Let's create a virtual gallery that reflects the heartbeat of our nation. 🀝 UNITED WE STAND: In the true spirit of unity, let's bridge gaps and build connections. Reach out to someone with a different perspective, engage in meaningful conversations, and celebrate the diversity that makes America extraordinary. 🎢 SOUNDTRACK TO THE STARS AND STRIPES: What's your ultimate playlist for this historic celebration? Share your favorite patriotic tunes, and let's create a playlist that resonates with the rhythm of America's journey. πŸŽ‡ FUTURE FORWARD: As we commemorate our past, let's also look towards the future. What are your hopes and dreams for America's next 250 years? Share your visions for a brighter, more inclusive tomorrow. Together, let's make #SaluteToAmerica250 a vibrant tapestry of stories, memories, and aspirations. Whether you're a history buff, a proud patriot, or someone just discovering the beauty of the red, white, and blue, your voice matters. Let the celebration begin! πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έβœ¨ #LandOfTheFree #HomeOfTheBrave Ready to Salute? Click here to join the celebration!:-https://sites.google.com/view/celebrateamerica250th/home
    0 Comments 0 Shares 2195 Views
  • SALUTE TO AMERICA 250
    As we approach the monumental milestone of America's 250th birthday, let's embark on a journey of reflection, celebration, and unity! Join us in honoring the rich tapestry of our nation's history and the incredible journey that has shaped the Land of the Free.

    RINGING IN HISTORY: From the signing of the Declaration of Independence to the present day, each moment has woven a unique thread into the fabric of America. Together, let's salute the resilience, innovation, and the spirit of freedom that define us.

    IGNITING PATRIOTIC SPARKS: It's time to ignite the patriotic sparks within! Share your favorite American memories, traditions, or what makes you proud to be a part of this great nation. Use #SaluteToAmerica250 to connect and inspire others with your stories!

    CAPTURING AMERICA'S BEAUTY: America is not just a country; it's a breathtaking canvas of diverse landscapes and cultures. Share your snapshots of America's beauty, from sea to shining sea. Let's create a virtual gallery that reflects the heartbeat of our nation.

    UNITED WE STAND: In the true spirit of unity, let's bridge gaps and build connections. Reach out to someone with a different perspective, engage in meaningful conversations, and celebrate the diversity that makes America extraordinary.

    SOUNDTRACK TO THE STARS AND STRIPES: What's your ultimate playlist for this historic celebration? Share your favorite patriotic tunes, and let's create a playlist that resonates with the rhythm of America's journey.

    FUTURE FORWARD: As we commemorate our past, let's also look towards the future. What are your hopes and dreams for America's next 250 years? Share your visions for a brighter, more inclusive tomorrow.

    Together, let's make #SaluteToAmerica250 a vibrant tapestry of stories, memories, and aspirations. Whether you're a history buff, a proud patriot, or someone just discovering the beauty of the red, white, and blue, your voice matters. Let the celebration begin! #LandOfTheFree #HomeOfTheBrave
    Ready to Salute? Click here to join the celebration!:-https://sites.google.com/view/celebrateamerica250th/home
    πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έβœ¨ SALUTE TO AMERICA 250 βœ¨πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ As we approach the monumental milestone of America's 250th birthday, let's embark on a journey of reflection, celebration, and unity! πŸŽ‰βœ¨ Join us in honoring the rich tapestry of our nation's history and the incredible journey that has shaped the Land of the Free. πŸ”” RINGING IN HISTORY: From the signing of the Declaration of Independence to the present day, each moment has woven a unique thread into the fabric of America. Together, let's salute the resilience, innovation, and the spirit of freedom that define us. πŸŽ† IGNITING PATRIOTIC SPARKS: It's time to ignite the patriotic sparks within! Share your favorite American memories, traditions, or what makes you proud to be a part of this great nation. Use #SaluteToAmerica250 to connect and inspire others with your stories! πŸ“Έ CAPTURING AMERICA'S BEAUTY: America is not just a country; it's a breathtaking canvas of diverse landscapes and cultures. Share your snapshots of America's beauty, from sea to shining sea. Let's create a virtual gallery that reflects the heartbeat of our nation. 🀝 UNITED WE STAND: In the true spirit of unity, let's bridge gaps and build connections. Reach out to someone with a different perspective, engage in meaningful conversations, and celebrate the diversity that makes America extraordinary. 🎢 SOUNDTRACK TO THE STARS AND STRIPES: What's your ultimate playlist for this historic celebration? Share your favorite patriotic tunes, and let's create a playlist that resonates with the rhythm of America's journey. πŸŽ‡ FUTURE FORWARD: As we commemorate our past, let's also look towards the future. What are your hopes and dreams for America's next 250 years? Share your visions for a brighter, more inclusive tomorrow. Together, let's make #SaluteToAmerica250 a vibrant tapestry of stories, memories, and aspirations. Whether you're a history buff, a proud patriot, or someone just discovering the beauty of the red, white, and blue, your voice matters. Let the celebration begin! πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έβœ¨ #LandOfTheFree #HomeOfTheBrave Ready to Salute? Click here to join the celebration!:-https://sites.google.com/view/celebrateamerica250th/home
    0 Comments 0 Shares 2107 Views
  • The Age of Megathreats
    Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022
    op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images
    NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be.

    Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.”

    Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies.

    Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries.

    Goodbye to All That

    Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII.

    There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb.


    Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini.

    Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More.

    For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15.

    Subscribe Now

    With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea.

    Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any.

    Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy.

    There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia.

    Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.”

    But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate.

    Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind.

    Hard Choices, Hard Landings

    The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks.

    While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession).

    What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant).

    History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies.

    Sticky Stagflation

    In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral.

    Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction.

    This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth.

    Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc.

    Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade.

    On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable.

    The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods.

    Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise.

    The Worst of All Possible Economies

    When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing.

    Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis.

    While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent.

    The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture.

    Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate.

    With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates.

    How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates.

    For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage.

    The Moment of Truth

    In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one).

    And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters.

    How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust.

    In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix.

    Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse.

    Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.
    The Age of Megathreats Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022 op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be. Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.” Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies. Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries. Goodbye to All That Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII. There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb. Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini. Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More. For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15. Subscribe Now With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea. Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any. Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy. There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia. Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.” But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate. Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind. Hard Choices, Hard Landings The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks. While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession). What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant). History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies. Sticky Stagflation In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral. Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction. This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth. Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc. Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade. On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable. The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods. Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise. The Worst of All Possible Economies When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing. Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis. While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent. The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture. Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate. With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates. How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates. For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage. The Moment of Truth In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one). And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters. How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust. In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix. Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse. Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.
    0 Comments 0 Shares 10285 Views
More Results