Local Law 97 applies to most buildings over 25,000 square feet, which covers a significant portion of the city’s real estate. The law sets forth a carbon emission limit based on occupancy classifications with higher fines imposed on properties exceeding their specific carbon intensity thresholds. Click here to read more: https://themediumblog.com/emissions-or-fines-understanding-why-local-law-97-matters/

Bill Rice Jr.'s Newsletter substack, worth the read, once again, enlightening and Bill writes with a unique style, i know him, support him: "I’m caught in ‘The Twilight Zone’, Which isn’t in some far Bill Rice Jr.'s Newsletter substack, worth the read, once again, enlightening and Bill writes with a unique style, i know him, support him: "I’m caught in ‘The Twilight Zone’, Which isn’t in some far away galaxy or a hidden dimension of time. It's right here ... right now." Dr. Paul Alexander Bill Rice Jr.'s Newsletter Bill Rice Jr.'s Newsletter I’m caught in ‘The Twilight Zone’ Since it’s one of the best TV shows ever, I’ve recently been binge-watching old episodes of “The Twilight Zone.” I don’t know if I recommend this form of entertainment because I now feel like I’m a character inside a “Twilight Zone” storyline. It’s like I’m living in a dream and my dream includes its own dreams… Read more 2 months ago · 110 likes · 147 comments · Bill Rice, Jr. ‘Since it’s one of the best TV shows ever, I’ve recently been binge-watching old episodes of “The Twilight Zone.” I don’t know if I recommend this form of entertainment because I now feel like I’m a character inside a “Twilight Zone” storyline. It’s like I’m living in a dream and my dream includes its own dreams, which may or may not even be a dream. As everyone who’s watched a few episodes of Rod Serling’s classic TV series knows, many characters in “The Twilight Zone” are living through some nightmare existence that slowly dawns on them. The horror comes from the characters’ knowledge that they might be the only person who sees that something Big and terrifying has changed in the world. I can’t say we’re all living in a real-world “Twilight Zone” episode … because most people on the planet still think everything is the same or as normal as ever. It’s only a certain percentage of (unlucky) citizens who “get” what’s happening. If everyone thought the same things and viewed the world exactly the same way, our story would lack the requisite “dramatic tension.” For drama to exist, someone has to know something’s not right here. In many “Twilight Zone” episodes, when a character tries to scream this out, he’s met with blank or sad stares and is told he’s the crazy and dangerous person. A central part of the horror comes from the fact the organizations and intelligent people who are supposed to know what’s happening either don’t know this … or they are actually responsible for our new “Twilight Zone” rules and order. (What is the “Twilight Zone?” Short answer: Our “New Normal.”) The main characters in our dramas are really looking for proof they’re not insane, that some “adult in the room” has also picked up on what’s happening and will ultimately save the world. But our dreams - which have now become reality - shows this isn’t going to occur either. The alleged “truth-seekers” either can’t see the truths or these people and organizations now exist to conceal these truths, which would mean they are all a part of some massive insanity-producing conspiracy. The layers of horror only multiply when our protagonists realize that it’s not just, say, Covid lies that are being promulgated. The thought quickly occurs to anyone stuck in “The Twilight Zone” that a litany of truth-concealing conspiracies must have been occurring all along and are still occurring. The real jolt of horror comes from the realization that, moving forward, this is probably the way things are always going to be. This would be a captivating ‘Twilight Zone’ episode … A riveting episode of “The Twilight Zone” might depict, say, a U.S. president who has obvious dementia, which gets worse every day he serves in the White House. The episode could chronicle awkward episodes from this patient’s every-day life that make it clear he’s suffering from serious cognitive issues. But the real horror wouldn’t come from these events. Instead, they would come as the script’s author increasingly reveals all of the officials and journalists who know this is happening to the leader of the free world … and none of them care. Indeed, their daily activities increasingly consist of covering-up this reality from the public. The horror comes from the fact the audience sees the massive number of people are who are determined to hide these truths from the public. That is, viewers learn this is no small conspiracy. It’s a massive conspiracy. And if these trust-worthy leaders and officials are pulling off this conspiracy, they must be involved in many larger and even more scandalous conspiracies. How would Rod Serling have treated Covid-19? It would be interesting to see how Rod Serling and his team of writers might have treated Covid-19 in a series of “Twilight Zone” episodes. Traditional Hollywood would show us that a deadly virus had assaulted the world and government scientists fought the virus and saved most people. But this would be fiction. The more original and provocative story might be the true story. The world’s alleged leaders “protected” the world from a virus that wasn’t even that deadly and all the horror came from the draconian responses to the non-threat. The protagonists of this story would be the people who figured this out. Modern-day “Twilight Zone” episodes would show how these people were vilified and punished for not going along with the official story-line. Or made to feel crazy and worthy of commitment. Viewers would learn that every important organization that is supposed to reveal the truth is, in fact, completely captured. The investigative journalists are captured, as are all the brilliant people at all the colleges … all the politicians and most of the doctors, plus the prestigious scientific organizations and the great companies of the world, etc. They were - and still are - all in on it. The horror of our real “Twilight Zone” episode is that some people can now so easily see how “The Twilight Zone” became possible. All it takes is for every important organization to become completely captured. The few people who, for some reason, weren’t captured - who didn’t drink the Kool-Aid - are the people who are left living through a real episode of “The Twilight Zone.” Share Stephen King doesn’t understand the real horror story of Covid After Rod Serling, the master of horror became prolific author Stephen King. Perhaps King’s most memorable novel is The Stand, which tells the story of how a super flu kills 99 percent of the world population. That flu was created by mad scientists, who allowed this virus to escape onto the world. The irony is that King is in the group of influencers who bought the official narrative that the super flu of Covid-19 was naturally-occurring and that the public should have been locked down for years to protect them from this non-deadly virus. On top of that, according to King, the public should have lined up to get an experimental mRNA shots produced by the Military Industrial Complex and Big Pharma. That is, even Stephen King never realized who the real villains might be in the Covid story. In the authorized story, the villains were the citizens who didn’t believe Anthony Fauci, the people who didn’t want to take these shots or who were not afraid to leave their house. Still, King told his millions of fans: Be very afraid … do what Anthony Fauci says … or you too might die. As it turns out, the “good guys” were the government and the mega companies …. and the Fourth Estate published only the truth. The real Twilight Zone was not in a galaxy far, far away … I say Stephen King is no Rod Serling. For my part, I think Serling would have gotten what happened and why … and what the truly terrifying story was. I’ve now watched dozens of old “Twilight Zone” episodes. I’m struck by how prescient many of these storylines were. What scares me is that “The Twilight Zone” isn’t some place far out in space or some alternative dimension of reality. It’s right here on earth … right now. We’re all living in it, if only 15 percent of the population realizes this. All it takes is every important organization and leader to become captured, which wasn’t really that hard to achieve. For almost four years I feel like I’ve been living in a “Twilight Zone” episode. I’ve even written columns about this, basically screaming: “Someone help me! Something is wrong here!” But sending out a message-in-a-bottle on Substack hasn’t worked for me. I’m still in this dream. I haven’t woke up yet. Truth be told, I don’t know how this story’s going to end. Rod Serling didn’t tell us how to get out of The Twilight Zone.’ https://palexander.substack.com/p/bill-rice-jrs-newsletter-substack Join 👇🏻 https://t.me/DrPaulAlexander

‘Too big to fail’ was bad enough for the banks. Now we have ‘too many to fail.’ Last Updated: Feb. 13, 2024 at 1:20 p.m. ET People line up outside of the shuttered Silicon Valley Bank headquarters on March 10, 2023, in Santa Clara, Calif. Getty Images Almost a year after the mini banking crisis in the United States, it is worth revisiting the episode. Was it just a tempest in a teacup? Was there really a systemic threat, or was it just a problem with a few banks? Should the interventions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury worry or comfort us? Recall that three mid-size U.S. banks suddenly failed around March 2023. The most prominent was Silicon Valley Bank, which became the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history, after Washington Mutual in 2008. Roughly 90% of the deposits at SVB were uninsured, and uninsured deposits are prone to runs. Making matters worse, SVB had invested significant sums in long-term bonds, the market value of which fell as interest rates rose. When SVB sold some of these holdings to raise funds, the unrealized losses embedded in its bond portfolio started coming to light. A failed equity offering then triggered a classic bank run. It is convenient to think that these issues were confined to just a few rogue banks. But the problem was systemic. When the Fed engages in quantitative easing (QE), it buys bonds from financial institutions. Typically, those sellers then deposit the money in their bank, and this results in a large increase in uninsured deposits in the banking system. On the banks’ asset side, there is a corresponding increase in central-bank reserves. This is stable, since reserves are the most liquid asset on the planet and can be used to satisfy any impatient depositors who come for their money. Unfortunately, a number of smaller banks (with less than $50 billion in assets) moved away from this stable position as QE continued. Historically, smaller U.S. banks financed themselves conservatively, with uninsured demandable deposits accounting for only around 10% of their liabilities. Yet by the time the Fed was done with its pandemic-era QE, these banks’ uninsured demandable deposits exceeded 30% of liabilities. Though that level was still far below SVB’s, these institutions clearly had drunk from the same firehose. Smaller banks were also more conservative about liquidity in the past. At the outset of QE in late 2008, banks with less than $50 billion in assets had reserves (and other assets that could be used to borrow reserves) that exceeded the uninsured demandable deposits they had issued. By early 2023, however, they had issued runnable claims (in aggregate) that were one and a half times the size of their liquid assets. Instead of holding liquid reserves, their assets were now more weighted toward long-term securities and term lending, including a significant share of commercial real-estate (CRE) loans. Advertisement Thus, as the Fed raised interest rates, the economic value of these banks’ assets fell sharply. Some of the fall was hidden by accounting sleight of hand, but SVB’s sudden demise caused investors to scrutinize banks’ balance sheets more carefully. What they saw did not instill confidence. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index duly fell by over 25%, and deposits started flowing out of a large number of banks, many of which lacked the liquidity to accommodate the sudden outflows. The risk of contagious runs across smaller banks was real, as was the possibly of the problem spreading more widely. The Treasury essentially took bank runs off the table, while the Fed provided banks the funds to accommodate the continuing — though no longer panicked — depositor outflows. Importantly, as private money flowed to large banks, very little flowed to small- and medium-size institutions. That is why the authorities had to come to the rescue. Soon after SVB’s demise, the Treasury signaled that no uninsured depositor in small banks would suffer losses in any further bank collapses. The Fed opened a generous new facility that lent money for up to one year to banks against the par, or face value, of the securities they held on their balance sheets, without adjusting for the erosion in the value of these securities from higher interest rates. And the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBanks) — effectively an arm of the U.S. government — increased its lending to stressed banks, with total advances to the banking system having already tripled between March 2022 and March 2023 amid the Fed’s policy tightening. Borrowing by small- and medium-size banks from these official sources skyrocketed. The Treasury essentially took bank runs off the table, while the Fed provided banks the funds to accommodate the continuing — though no longer panicked — depositor outflows. A potential banking crisis was converted into a slow-burning problem for banks as they recognized and absorbed the losses on their balance sheets. Just recently, New York Community Bancorp NYCB, -5.17%, which bought parts of one of the banks that failed in 2023, reminded us that this process is still underway when it announced large losses. With the Russell microcap index of small companies significantly underperforming the S&P 100 index OEX of the largest companies since March 2023, it appears that smaller banks’ troubles have weighed on their traditional clients: small- and medium-size companies. Where does that leave us? Although the situation could have been much worse if the Treasury and the Fed had not stepped in, the seeming ease with which the panic was arrested allowed public attention to move on. Apart from die-hard libertarians, no one seems to care much about the extent of the intervention that was needed to rescue the smaller banks, nor has there been any broad inquiry into the circumstances that led to the vulnerabilities. As a result, several questions remain unanswered. To what extent were the seeds of the 2023 banking stress sown by the pandemic-induced monetary stimulus and lax supervision of what banks did with the money? Did advances by the FHLBanks delay failed banks’ efforts to raise capital? Are banks that relied on official backstops after SVB’s failure keeping afloat distressed CRE borrowers, and therefore merely postponing an eventual reckoning? It is not good for capitalism when those who knowingly take risks — bankers and uninsured depositors, in this case — pay no price when a risk materializes. Despite sweeping banking reforms over the past 15 years, the authorities have once again shown that they are willing to bail out market players if enough of them have taken the same risk. “Too big to fail” was bad enough, but now we have “too many to fail.” The mini-crisis of March 2023 was much more than a footnote in banking history. We cannot afford to bury it. Raghuram G. Rajan, a former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, is professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and the author, most recently, of Monetary Policy and Its Unintended Consequences (The MIT Press, 2023). Viral V. Acharya, a former deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India, is professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. This commentary was published with the permission of Project Syndicate — The Danger of Forgetting the 2023 Banking Crisis. More: Regional-bank bondholders seem unworried by New York Community Bank’s problems Also read: Recession in 2024? A quarter of economists think it will happen. 😎🇺🇸🦅 PAR-TY… 🎉. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/too-big-to-fail-was-bad-enough-for-the-banks-now-we-have-too-many-to-fail-d89dcdda

The Glenville State University Tuba and Euphonium Ensemble presented American Chaos ’24 West Virginia Style - The Holler Goes to The Hill, a musical play with songs arranged by Ryan Deems, at The U.S. Army Band 2024 Tuba-Euphonium Workshop. #GlenvilleState #PioneerNation #GoPioneers #TheHollerGoesToTheHill #Euphonium #Tuba #TEW2024 #TEW #Music

Look what they did to Reiner Fuellmich! He’s a political prisoner in Nazi Germany! Update: Reiner Füellmich Speaks Out. His Personal Statement & Press Release From The Defence. Update: Reiner Füellmich Speaks Out. His Personal Statement & Press Release From The Defence. Patricia HarrityDecember 27, 2023 Dr Reiner Füellmich has been imprisoned for almost 11 weeks now. He has written his own personal account, part one of which was read aloud on Bittel TV and translated. He had said “It isn’t over.” The corona pandemic was only the test run to find out what people will go along with when we put them into panic through psycho-terror. We must look behind the panic propaganda, so we can see the truth.” He added “Without justice there is no peace and no returning to a humane world. That also holds for my case.” The English translation of part one can be found here. The official translation for parts 2 and 3 from the Reiner Füellmich team were received by Elsa Scheider from the Truth Summit last week and have been republished below for our readers who have shown a concern and interest in Reiner’s situation Source . This is followed by the press release from the defense team published on 23rd December. “The Truth” – Personal Statement by Dr. Reiner Füellmich’ Part 2: The beginning of the Corona Committee Dear friends, activists, and fellow human beings interested in the truth. This is the 2nd part of my “Personal Statement” to make the events of the last weeks, months and years transparent for all of you. How did it come about that serious allegations of embezzlement were made against me publicly and in a criminal complaint by four former comrades-in-arms in the Corona Committee? Who were the people I trusted when I worked with the Corona Committee? How did it come about that I am now sitting in a high-security prison in Germany – and completely innocent? Above all, I have to reproach myself, because my professional gut feeling clearly betrayed me (or I didn’t listen closely enough), and I simply didn’t attend enough to details in the daily TO-DOs, otherwise I would have noticed the planned coup much earlier. But first things first: My wife Inka and I lived with our dogs on our ranch in Northern California until the beginning of June 2020 and I did my legal work mainly from there. When the plandemic started in 2020, we were both immediately convinced – that something was amiss here. I quickly packed my bags, because I wanted to help shed light on the plandemic in Germany. After all, I had 30 years of experience as a litigator and spent many years studying medical and pharmaceutical law at the University of Göttingen. In addition, I had many contacts from my work in medical law. Dr. WW, whom I trusted at the time, put me in touch with Ms. VF. At the first face-to-face meeting in Berlin, I was bothered by some of her behavior, but I decided to take off my critical glasses, ignore my gut feeling and trust a friend. We agreed to establish the Corona Committee because it was clear in June 2020 that the German Bundestag, which was actually responsible for this, would not start its own investigation, for reasons that were not yet apparent to me at the time. The Corona Committee was to clarify these key questions immediately: 1. How dangerous is the supposedly novel corona virus really? 2. How reliable and suitable is the PCR test for detecting corona infections? 3. How harmful are the Corona measures, i.e. the lockdowns, the mask requirement, social distancing and the threat of so-called vaccinations? Scientists, doctors, economists, lawyers, politicians, etc. should help support us in clarifying the questions. Two German scientists, a professor of finance and an expert in immunology and vaccinations were already part of our circle. Unfortunately, they did not agree with the contracts of VF drawn up by her notary and therefore they left us. I recall that one of them also distrusted VF from the start. We needed replacements quickly. Two years earlier, while working for the anti-corruption NGO Transparency International, I had met law professor Martin Schwab and had been friends with him ever since. He, in turn, had introduced me to two lawyers from Hamburg whom he had promoted. Trusting in Prof. Schwab’s expertise, I asked the two of them if they wanted to move up as a replacement for the scientists in the Corona Committee. Today I know that this was the beginning of the end. Both quickly showed that money meant more to them than clarification and enlightenment. The Corona Committee quickly met with completely unexpected success. Since we conducted the expert surveys in German and English via video-stream, our Friday broadcasts quickly became popular worldwide. Many people had been convinced that we would later use the findings from these interviews as evidence in international damages proceedings such as in class action. We were in the right place at the right time with our work. I was and still am convinced of that. Internally, unfortunately, things looked different. I quickly noticed that VF and the others showed little interest in our work in contrast to myself, who concentrated almost completely on this work. In addition to the interviews in the committee, I gave five international interviews at that time, and thereby, endeavored to provide information about our work worldwide and not just in Germany. After I had learned from critical experts that a PCR test could under no circumstances detect an infection, and it had been deliberately abused here, I published a 50-minute video in German and English in September 2020. There I explained that the Corona measures, which had already led to more and more victims and damage at that time, could be qualified as crimes against humanity, and that it would be best to clarify them legally with the means of Anglo-American law. To my surprise, the video was viewed millions of times before it was suddenly deleted by YouTube/Google. On the basis of this video, the American colleague Robert F. Kennedy jr., whom I first met in Berlin in August 2020, founded the “PCR Test working group” on his platform CHD, with the help of its president Mary Holland. I also belong to this group. Since October 2020, respected scientists, doctors, lawyers, etc. have been meeting there every week to discuss all aspects related to the plandemic. At the same time, I regularly summarized our long interviews at the Corona Committee on Sundays on Roger Bittel’s platform “Bittel.TV”. The enormous popularity of the Corona Committee led to a large number of inquiries as early as August 2020. In particular, small and medium-sized enterprises wanted to know how they could get compensation for the damage suffered as a result of the lockdowns. And fellow lawyers from all over the world wanted to be connected with the experts. At that time, many lawyers still believed that a judicial hearing of evidence with our PCR test experts would quickly bring down the entire panic, based on deception and manipulation. This led to the collection of funds (700 € per person) for a possible class action. The funds are all there, but have been fraudulently diverted to another account. I will report on this in detail elsewhere. Due to my almost 30 years of litigation experience, I was rather sceptical that a solid legal approach would quickly succeed in Germany and also in the rest of the world. Therefore, I advised to conduct damages litigation in an Anglo-American country, where there is the possibility of class actions and a real right of evidence and punitive damages for intentional damages. My international colleagues are working flat out on this. The issue of class action lawsuits is as present as ever and we are convinced that it will ultimately bring success. Part 3 – The end of the Corona Committee – Unfortunate circumstances or a long-planned coup? Dear friends, activists and fellow human beings interested in the truth, in the 3rd part of my personal statement, it will quickly become apparent to you that I was more and more a lone fighter in matters of the Corona Committee and that my co-partners pulled a common string to get rid of me and also to ruin me privately. I share responsibility here. As a human being, but even more so as a lawyer, I should have seen the events coming and prevented them. Back to my account. So, while I was on my way, also with international lawyers, for the CA and putting all my energy into it, strangely enough, the other members didn’t seem to be so aware of the importance of the Corona Committee‘s work. None of them attended the strategy meetings. None of them made any effort to publicize the work of the Committee, especially beyond the borders of Germany. From the end of 2020 onwards, JH and AF in particular were only interested in how they could earn as much money as possible with Corona mandates with their newly founded office community. When, at the end of 2021 / beginning of 2022, together with the group of international lawyers, I conducted the Model Grand Jury investigations with the help of our experts to show that, and how, a legal clarification of the plandemic could work, these lawyers no longer played a role at all. However, the Model Grand Jury Investigation became a success that attracted worldwide attention. The work of the Corona Committee was now so popular that by the end of 2020 we had already received a lot of donations. However, we only needed part of this to pay for our technology, IT, translators and expenses for my office, etc. There was a large amount of money in our donation account. This money was not safe from our point of view. A blocking or seizure of the accounts would have rendered us immediately incapacitated. Therefore, VF and I decided to leave only the amounts directly required for the work of the Corona Committee in the donation account and to keep the funds that were not needed at first safe from possible access. The State Office for Criminal Investigation in Lower Saxony, as I know today, had asked the public prosecutor’s office to investigate VF, RF, AF and JH and a colleague who had temporarily managed the donation account because of suspicious money laundering reports from the banks, which had repeatedly terminated our donation account. These investigations were later discontinued. To make sure that we would not be vulnerable because of the securing of the money, we concluded loan agreements, which were also openly shown in the annual financial statements. Of course, there would have been no point in transferring the loans from one disclosed account to another open account. So we decided to invest them in my German property (as an equivalent value) and in gold as a safe store of value. The house had a value of €1,345,000. We wanted to sell it anyway and look for a new place to live in Germany. Therefore, the money I took out on a loan basis was safe, as I believed at the time. But things turned out differently. I will report on that. In addition, I invested 1.1 million EUR in donations in gold. This was also openly disclosed in the annual financial statements. VF also entered into a contract with Corona Committee to obtain a loan. This withdrawal also served to secure our money. The loan went over € 100,000 which is also reported in the annual financial statements. In July / August 2021, JH and AF suddenly contacted us again to get information about the donations. I suspected that their legal efforts had been unsuccessful. In the meantime, I had learned that they had no structure in their office and, in particular, had not even been able to hire at least one secretary. I hadn’t checked this at the beginning of our collaboration, a mistake on my part in hindsight. Since JH and AF had effectively left the work of the Corona Committee and also because they had recently been working closely with a person who, as I know today, infiltrated the political party “dieBasis” together with a Freemason, we initially refused to provide this information. But in order not to waste energy on avoidable arguments, we finally handed in an overview of income and expenditures. It quickly became clear that they wanted to “hijack” the Corona Committee and at least eliminate me from it. When the attempt failed, JH proposed in a written settlement that he and AF would leave the company if we pay them half of the donations to an account of their mentor, Prof. Dr. Martin Schwab. Of course, VF and I rejected this and asked JH and AF not to show up in the committee anymore. We didn’t hear from them for about a year. At the end of 2021, with my consent and with the help of their notary, VF created a new company for the operation of the Corona Committee. VF and I held a 50 percent stake in this company. This new Corona Committee has its own account, so it no longer has to rely on lawyers’ escrow accounts. All the rights of the old company were also transferred to this new company. I agreed to the contracts submitted to me by VF. At the beginning of 2022, working with VF had become increasingly difficult. That’s why I accepted the offer to participate in the Crimes Against Humanity Tour in the US. This meant that I would spend almost three and a half months traveling through nine U.S. cities and giving lectures with two well-known U.S. scientists, Dr. Judy Mikovits and the economist and expert on technology and transhumanism, Patrick Wood. However, from there I continued all the activities related to the Corona Committee: I continued the interviews via Zoom, gave an average of five interviews per week, participated in the conferences of the PCR Test Working Group and summarised the meetings of the Committee every weekend on Bittel.TV. In addition, I worked with international colleagues to initiate legal proceedings with the aim of large-scale damages lawsuits. At the time, I was on the verge of burnout… After my return from the U.S., I realized that VF’s chaotic incompetence and indifference to our guests, which I had grudgingly accepted until then, had increased even more. That’s why I confronted her in July 2022. I informed her that I would be going back to our ranch in California with my wife and dogs, also to be closer to the relevant legal action, but that I would continue the committee work as usual. Also, I desperately wanted more input from her! Immediately afterwards, as I know today, VF got in touch with JH and AF again, as well as their law firm colleague MT. In August 2022, there was a meeting and a discussion. Following this meeting, the joint public defamation campaign against me started on 9-2-.2022 and criminal charges were filed against me on the same day. I didn’t know anything about that at the time. Due to the coincidence of the date of the “dismissal” and the criminal complaint, it is clear to me today that “the other side” was never interested in resolving the disputes. A week before 9-2-.2022, VF had informed me that there would be no Corona committee broadcast on that day because our TV manager’s wife was going to have her second child. A lie, as I later realized. But I believed that lie and did not appear, VF and WW had – as VF puts it – “a clear shot“ at me. VF appeared in front of the Corona Committee’s camera dramatically dressed in black. She declared, without informing me as her partner, that I was no longer allowed to appear at the Corona Committee. So she decided unilaterally and completely arbitrarily that I was no longer allowed to be present in the Corona Committee that I had shaped until then, in whose company I owned 50 percent then as now! In order to justify her illegal and unlawful actions, she and WW, also in front of the camera, stated that I was to be accused of financial irregularities and that I was otherwise “a loudmouth”. WW was particularly fond of this label. I didn’t want to unnecessarily burden the Corona Committee and its worldwide reputation with internal problems. A vain hope. A short time later, VF, WW, JH, AF and VF’s partner at the time appeared in front of the camera for an hour-long Reiner Fuellmich tribunal. This campaign eventually culminated in several increasingly insane videos from VF claiming that “the children of the committee staff must be starving“ because of me. Apparently completely unhinged, she finally called for a “hunt for me” and crowned this call with a “Halali”, a German hunting call that signals the end of a hunt. Not only I, but also the viewers were shocked, as could be seen from the comments in the chat. The content of the 30-page criminal complaint, which JH also filed on behalf of AF and MT, reads even crazier. JH, AF and MT knew in 2020 that € 700,000 had been secured by me by loan agreement and secured with my property. They also knew that the sale of my house has been planned for a long time and was imminent. Our property was sold on 03/10/2022 for € 1,345,000.00 in our absence through a notary. As mentioned, we have never seen any of this money to this day! How this coup took place, I will explain in the next part. And it gets even worse: After receiving the criminal complaint, I should have been heard, in accordance with the principle audiatur et altera pars. But I was denied this. Today I know the reasons: JH claimed to the prosecution that I was threatening him “with a Winchester”. And because that didn’t seem dangerous enough, he went on to claim that I, as a member of the party “dieBasis”, would radicalize other members and call for violence against him. In addition, I was an anti-Semite and he would feel threatened because of his ethnic origin. Because of these completely fictitious threat scenarios, my wife and I were denied the right to a fair clarification of the situation by the authorities for more than a year. Apparently, the public prosecutor’s office felt pressured by these threat scenarios. JH even told the authorities that the other two plaintiffs would withdraw the criminal complaint if the prosecution granted me a fair hearing. Literally, he writes: “… if Fuellmich or any of the other defendants were given the opportunity to comment before criminal proceedings were initiated, the witnesses (i.e. VF, JH, AF and MT) would refrain from filing the criminal complaint for fear of threats, violence and defamation.” Subsequently, my wife’s private account was seized. When our lawyers asked for my wife to be heard, they were told that they would not receive any information because she was also under investigation. A European arrest warrant was then issued for me on 3-15-2023, of course without me being granted the right to be heard. In the meantime, my wife and I had left for a trip to Peru regarding the class action lawsuit. On the way back we wanted to visit friends in Mexico and fly back to Germany from there. There, we received information from our hometown that the authorities were allegedly looking for me. Unfortunately, the colleagues from my law firm did not receive any information from the authorities about the situation. So we couldn’t really assess the new scenario back home, so we stayed in Mexico for the time being. As a counterpart to the Corona Committee, I now had my own label “ICIC”, with which, as before in the Committee, I interviewed international experts on global crimes against humanity. A small working group from the former Corona Committee had followed me and so we were able to quickly get back to work. Nevertheless, in October 2023, everything plunged into complete chaos again. It ended with the execution of the above-mentioned European arrest warrant against me in Frankfurt, after I had previously been deported from a non-European country (Mexico) under police protection. – A thriller that, as I know today, was anything but a coincidence. I’ll tell you about that in the next episode. As a result, I’ve been sitting in prison for weeks now. The real perpetrators are still free. They also possess the class action lawsuit money and the money from my private home. I can prove that. All documents are safely stored with my legal team. How the “agitators” brought all this to a “successful” conclusion for them, I will report on in the next episode. Source Reiner Füellmich: Press Release From The Defence. Originally published by Elsa at Truth Summit on 23rd December 2023. One could say that the truth is boring – meaning, Reiner said basically the same thing a few days after VF spoke against him as he is saying now, and as is stated in the press release from the defense. There are a couple of further details. They add a tiny bit, but nothing is changed. So here is the press release. On November 17, 2023 the Göttingen public prosecutor’s office brought charges against Dr. Reiner Füellmich on the basis of a criminal complaint filed by former shareholders without the defense having prior access to all volumes of the investigation file or the opportunity to comment. An interrogation of the accused pursuant to Section 163a of the German Code of Criminal Procedure (StPO) was also not conducted before the indictment was filed. Likewise, the witnesses named predominantly in the indictment were not questioned. On the one hand, the sum of €700,000 is at issue, which is already the subject of the arrest warrant. However, the basis for the payment of the €700,000 were two loan agreements also signed by Viviane Fischer (one dated November 6, 2020 for €200,000 and one dated May 14, 2021 for €500,000). The public prosecutor’s office incorrectly assumed at the time of the indictment that both loan agreements involved inadmissible self-dealing. However, according to the complete founding minutes of July 9, 2020 all four shareholders were appointed as managing directors with sole power of representation, so that Viviane Fischer was able to effectively represent the Corona-Committee-Entrepreneurial-company-in-formation alone in both loan agreements. At the time, rumors were circulating about the seizure of accounts at MWGFD; in fact, accounts were seized from the prominent member Prof. Dr. Hockertz, as well as subsequently from other doctors who were prosecuted under criminal law on the subject of the corona measures, and finally, as the most prominent example, from Michael Ballweg, who was also remanded in custody for 9 months. The donations should therefore be invested in sustainable stores of value, such as gold or real estate. The Corona Committee bought around 1 million worth of gold, which is still stored securely at Degussa. Reiner Füellmich’s property was intended as the equivalent value for the loan amount of € 700,000. At the time of the sale on October 3, 2022, the property was unencumbered and the € 700,000 was to be repaid to the Corona Committee from the purchase price of € 1,345,000. However, this was prevented until today by the entry of a land charge on November 18, 2022, i.e. one and a half months later – in our opinion unlawful – and the payment of an amount of € 1,158,250 in favor of the complainant Marcel Templin. This matter must be clarified, also by the public prosecutor’s office. It is irrelevant whether amounts were spent on redesigning the garden of the property, as this directly benefited the increase in value and thus the achievement of a higher purchase price. The indictment also alleges payments made by the Corona Committee to Reiner Füellmich’s law firm in the amount of €25,000 per month plus VAT in the period from January 1, 2021 to July 31, 2022. According to the indictment, these funds were used up for wage and salary payments and social security contributions for the employees of his law firm. The public prosecutor’s office fails to recognize that the employees of Füellmich’s law firm provided a service in return for these monthly payments to the Corona Committee. For two years, they were almost exclusively occupied with answering inquiries to the Corona Committee. Over 300,000 emails were answered, hundreds to thousands of telephone calls were made and thousands of letters were answered. Due to the sheer volume of emails, a new IT system also had to be purchased. This work, which was absolutely essential for the Committee’s continued existence, was not carried out at the Committee’s headquarters in Berlin. Communication with the supporters of the Corona Committee included initial legal advice for those seeking help, the acquisition of interview partners, the selection of scientists and other experts, who ultimately had their say at the weekly meetings. If this communication had not taken place, the Corona Committee could have ceased its work shortly after it was set up. The services provided by the employees of the Füellmich law firm were therefore part of the committee’s corporate purpose. The witnesses named by the public prosecutor in the indictment for this set of crimes were not heard before the indictment was filed, which is unusual. Source Truth Summit Elsa from the Truth Summit adds – PS. To donate for legal and other expenses, here is the link: https://www.givesendgo.com/GBBX2 https://expose-news.com/2023/12/27/update-reiner-fuellmich-speaks-out-his-personal-statement-press-release-from-the-defence/

"Rich Dad Poor Dad" is a personal finance and self-help book written by Robert T. Kiyosaki. The book was first published in 1997 and has since become a bestseller. The author shares his life experiences and lessons learned from two father figures: his biological father (referred to as "Poor Dad") and the father of his childhood best friend (referred to as "Rich Dad"). Here's a summary of the key concepts: Wealth Mindset: Kiyosaki emphasizes the importance of cultivating a mindset geared towards wealth and financial independence. He argues that traditional education often neglects teaching crucial financial skills. Assets vs. Liabilities: The author introduces the concept of assets and liabilities. He suggests that the key to building wealth is to acquire income-generating assets and minimize liabilities. Assets put money in your pocket, while liabilities take money out. Importance of Financial Education: Kiyosaki criticizes the lack of financial education in traditional schooling. He encourages people to seek knowledge about money, investing, and business independently, as this education is essential for building wealth. The Rat Race: The book discusses the "rat race," where individuals work hard to earn money but struggle financially due to poor financial planning and high expenses. Kiyosaki suggests breaking free from the cycle by investing wisely and creating passive income streams. Entrepreneurship: Kiyosaki advocates for entrepreneurship and building businesses as a means to achieve financial success. He believes that having control over one's financial destiny is crucial. Making Money Work for You: The author emphasizes the importance of making money work for you through investments. He discusses various investment options, such as real estate and stocks, and stresses the need to understand these markets. Risk-Taking: Kiyosaki encourages readers to take calculated risks and learn from their mistakes. He believes that overcoming the fear of failure is essential for financial success. Financial Independence: The ultimate goal, according to Kiyosaki, is achieving financial independence, where passive income exceeds expenses. This allows individuals to have more control over their time and pursue their passions. "Rich Dad Poor Dad" has inspired many readers to rethink their approach to money and investments, promoting a more proactive and entrepreneurial mindset. While some critics challenge the specifics of Kiyosaki's advice, the book remains popular for its motivational and thought-provoking content.

https://nypost.com/2023/12/22/real-estate/nikki-haley-bought-this-sc-home-after-joining-boeing-board/

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Charming Apartment Overlooking the Sea and Sohail Castle This apartment offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, covering approximately 90m2. South-facing, it boasts direct sea and castle views from its glazed terrace, featuring fully sliding glass doors. This unique feature allows for transforming the space into an almost open terrace, perfect for enjoying the splendid outdoor views. Both bedrooms are furnished with double beds. The American-style kitchen is fully equipped with appliances such as an oven, microwave, and refrigerator, in addition to cutlery and accessories. It operates on gas, but also has an electric hob. The main bathroom includes a bathtub, and the master bedroom offers spacious living with direct access to the terrace, as does the living room. The apartment comes with WiFi and potential access to a parking space, subject to prior inquiry. Residents can also enjoy a community swimming pool and landscaped gardens. Located just a 10-minute walk from the Myramar Shopping Centre, the apartment is conveniently near public transport, local businesses, and is just 100 meters from the beach. https://www.bluehorse.es/gb/apartment-in-fuengirola-zona-sohail-with-swimming-pool-gb1125983.html #Fuengirola #CostaDelSol #SpainRealEstate #BeachfrontLiving #SpanishHomes #MediterraneanLifestyle #PropertyForSaleSpain #LuxuryHomesSpain #SeaViewProperty #SpanishCoast #InvestInSpain #HolidayHomeSpain #SunAndSea #SpanishLiving #RealEstateSpain

Can You Feel The Earth Shaking? Normals Are Stepping Up All Over the World. Everything is Shifting. The Evidence follows: elizabeth nickson Did you hear the roar on the streets when Milei won Argentina? It built and built, and then everyone was out on the streets shouting, from windows, inside shops, houses. It is the future, all over the world. The Netherlands on Friday. Same same. Universal rejoicing. Absurdistan does a solid line in doom, but our firmly held first principle is that every single one of us should be two or three times as rich, with massively increased scope and ability to do the things we want to do. Defeating the criminal cartel that runs Big Pharma, Big Ag, Big Government, Big Tech and Big Charity will light up the galaxy if not the universe. And….this. Especially this: Unlike almost everyone in the media, Absurdistan knows regulation is the principal reason we are hornswoggled serfs. Even Trump’s team was surprised at the economic boom that came from his mild de-regulation; they thought tax relief was the key. It was important, none of us should be paying more than 25% in taxes, if that, but the regulation! You have no earthly idea how fiendish it has become until you start a business or require permission to create anything in the material world. Few journalists ever do that, the most they do is join a bank in “communications”, design an app or website, do PR, or ‘consult’. They are virtually, to a man or woman, children in the real world. So no one reports on the most brutal crippler of every man, woman and child on earth. Equally, virtually no writer I read has any grasp on the ingenuity, the creativity, the strength of the ordinary man. They all seem to think we need guidance from them, which is laughable. They have screwed up everything so utterly, we teeter daily on the edge of fiscal catastrophe . Bloomberg reports on Milei victory When Vivek Ramaswamy proposed instantly firing 50% of federal bureaucrats on Day One, I stood on my office chair and cheered. When Javier Milei tore strips of paper representing government ministries off the whiteboard, I had to go out and run around the house a few times. sheer heaven Africa is not limited by anything but confiscatory corrupt government, as asserted by Magatte Wade in her new book. Wade should be running things in Africa, which is polluted by commies, plutocrats, crooked multinationals, ravening bureaucrats, corrupt politicians and the brutalist green movement. The Chinese would stun the world if they could get rid of the vicious predatory communist regime that enslaves every man, woman and child. And not in the sense that they are “taking over”. The mop-up will take decades. But unpicking the bad regs and shooing the bad legislators off to permanent exile, prosecuting the army of government thieves, and creating a multi-polar world, will be more absorbing than our endless self-cherishing, self-indulgence. Have we not all shopped enough? We have powerful enemies, but they are fully aware of how destructive they have been, their guilt written on their exhausted pouchy faces. Trump is a symptom, not a cause People fighting the Borg wish for leaders but this is not a movement that requires leadership by anyone but each and every one of us. Trump is a symptom, not a cause. This is multi-headed, like Medusa, representing tens, hundreds of millions of individuals saying NO. Real politicians like Mike Johnson, Geert Wilders, Pierre Poilievre, Javier Milei, and Danielle Smith are listening to us and stepping up. I annoy even myself when I repeat this, but I come from a family that has been in ‘the New World’ since 1630: Puritans, Revolutionaries, infrastructure builders, town fathers and mothers. I own ten thousand pages of their records and can tell you at concrete level assurance, that one of cities they founded, Vancouver, would not be riven by Asian criminal cartels washing most of the drug money in North America through our real estate and casinos, if my great aunt and uncle were alive. They, that generation and those before, didn’t run their cities via government, they ran it through civil society, their churches and charities and cultural clubs and they told government what to do. What they decided upon, collectively, became law. Law wasn’t made by witless, inexperienced, childless men and women who move from college straight to government, it was made by those who engaged with life fully. On their block, in their neighborhood, in their city. They knew where every sparrow fell. And, by the way, my family married into Indian bands and were officers on the Underground Railroad. Everything academia and publishing tells you about the founding is arrant propaganda meant to strip you of self-respect and power. Boomers, Gen X, Millennials, threw away engagement and our current enslavement, our stasis, our stuck-ness, is the result. Not really our fault. We were brainwashed and mind controlled by military level psy-ops, run out of the CIA, the Tavistock Clinic and the cursed Club of Rome. Reclaiming that power is our responsibility going forward. It is the future. No one gets to go back to sleep. I wrote about our collective brainwashing extensively in August. Here is one piece: They Break Every Family, Every Town, Every Country They Break Every Family, Every Town, Every Country This is the second in an August series about the Head of the Snake, an examination of the cabal that is behind the Great Reset, the Covid and Global Warming hoaxes, and every profit-bonanza war of the last thirty, if not 500 years, but especially Ukraine. They call themselves by a proliferation of names: the Olympians, the Elect, Bilderbergers, the 300, demi-gods, the Black Nobility, other silly secret names that must not be spoken. They are secret because their intent is evil. They practice the occult – foolish and irresponsible – they are “Masons” of the crazy branch, a cult that operates entirely in the dark and entirely for themselves. They are as power-hungry as Hillary Clinton and far more corrupt than she or Biden or his dreadful son. They have been around for a thousand years, laughably tracing their bloodlines back to Sumer and the Pharaohs and they think that is important. In fact, who they are is Hunter Biden, he is their id, the visual manifestation of their disgusting de… Read full story Herewith a roundup of our recent victories in no particular order of importance. Many (not all) are courtesy of kevinfernandes82 on Instagram, who does yeoman work aggregating daily the many wins by populists across the world; I heartily recommend a follow to fight off despair. I am only describing the wins of the past ten days, and I edited out dozens. Each win represents hundreds to thousands to millions of people who stood up and took back their power. Politics Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom won a groundbreaking victory this week. Libertarian Javier Milei won in Argentina, promising to strip government of many ministries. All of Spain on the streets calling for end to Socialism. Retired Generals call for coup to get rid of socialist Prime Minister . Danielle Smith declares that the Trudeau Liberals are a lawless government and it’s time to assert the constitution Bloc Quebecois calls for abolition of Governor General’s office as expenses soar 11%. This office is King Charles’s grift and a mechanism of British Round Table control. Crown land is our land, not his. The restaurant that kicked out GOP Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders because she worked for Trump closes its doors. CEO of DeSantis super PAC resigns. The Conservative Party of Canada has not polled this high since the 1950’s. It outpolls the Liberals and NDP among under 30’s. Rudy Giuliani states that Zelensky has photographs of Hunter Biden that could bring down the Democratic Party and has been using them to blackmail Biden. A Republican has just beat a Democrat in the Mayoral race in Charleston, South Carolina for the first time since 1877. Farmers in France spray government buildings with cow manure to protest increases in charges and taxes. Former Black Voices for Trump wins against left-wing Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, as a Fulton County judge rejects a bid to lock him up over his social media posts 4th Circuit Court of Appeals struck down part of Maryland’s laws regulating handguns. Putin blames the U.N.: “Due to the sabotage of U.N. decisions which clearly provide for the creation and peaceful coexistence of two independent and sovereign states, more than one generation of Palestinians has been brought up in an atmosphere of injustice.” Italian court convicts 207 people in Mafia maxi-trial. U.S. Speaker Mike Johnson releases 40,000 hours of security footage of January 6th. Trump has considerably more support among young voters than Joe Biden according to a new NBC poll. Ex-Massachusetts senator facing 28 federal charges in connection with COVID fraud investigation. Asian-American residents of Brighton Park Chicago are furious about illegal migrants coming to their neighbourhood. 87% voted for Biden. One hundred police called out after protest surrounds Trudeau at restaurant. “You have blood on your hands”, call protestors referring to the vaccine mandates. German constitutional court strikes down plan of left-green-liberal government: rules they may not use 60B euros intended for Covid, for climate and energy measures. The Crown dropped charges against a pizza parlour owner for not closing down his restaurant during covid. The hearing lasted ten minutes and the verdict greeted with cheers. The Irish riot after an Algerian migrant injures three children. WEFer immigration policy is on the chopping block in every country. The Grotesque Sexualization of the Culture is Winding Down Biden Pentagon official overseeing the department managing elementary schools has been arrested in a human trafficking sting in Georgia. Prime Minister-Elect Javier Miles and Sound of Freedom Producer Eduardo Verastegui just signed and agreement to end all human trafficking operations in Argentina. Andrew Cuomo sued for sexual harassment by former executive assistant. GOP donor Harlan Crow’s brother is accused of financing a 100-person sex trafficking ring. Bad Boy Label President sued for sexual assault, negligence. TikTok, X and Meta CEOs to face Congressional Hearing Over Child Sexual Exploitation. Cuba Gooding Jr hit with two civil suits related to NYC sexual assaults American Idol coach, and Interscope Records founder, Jimmy Iovine sued over sexual misconduct and abuse. NYC Mayor Eric Adams accused of sexual assault in 1993 in new legal filing Jeremy Fox sued for sexual assault in NYC restaurant. Axl Rose sued over sexual assault by former Penthouse model. Julia Ormond sues Harvey Weinstein, CAA and Disney for sexual battery and enabling sexual assault. Model claims photographer Terry Richardson raped her, sold it as art. Jeffrey Epstein’s multimillionaire friend accused of sexually harassing stepdaughter. The ex-mayor of College Park, Maryland has been sentenced to 30 years in prison for possession and distribution of child sexual abuse material. Democrat, White House guest pled guilty to 100 counts. Authorities allege Binance allowed bad actors to freely transact on the platform, enabling everything from child sex abuse to terrorist financing. Binance CEO steps down, Binance pays $4.3B in fines. A federal judge in California certified a class action lawsuit against Pornhub/MindGeek/Aylo on behalf of tens of thousands of child victims abused for profit. “I’m at a loss”. Trudeau governments experts upset by foot-dragging over online harms law. Trudeau is widely believed to participate in violent sexual activities. P Diddy settles with Cassie over abuse and trafficking, but not before his reputation is destroyed. Two more women charge choking and rape. Saskatchewan Party MLA charged with soliciting sexual services kicked out of government caucus. Stacey Abram’s brother-in-law arrested for attacking 16-year-old, human trafficking in Tampa. Peter Nygard convicted on four counts of sexual assault. World Health Organization paid sexual abuse victims in the Congo $250US each. John Podesta’s friend, who debunked Pizzagate, arrested for raping toddlers. Media/culture CBC admits to making multiple censorship appeals to social media platforms, so many that they say they ‘couldn’t really analyze each one correctly’. Big Box stores ditching self-checkout citing theft and customer preference. Conservatives reject Canada-Ukraine trade bill. The International Cricket Council bans transgender women from women’s cricket. Bell Media tells CRTC its priorities are backwards during Online Streaming Act hearing. Javier Milei announces the closure of the Ministry of Women, Gender and Equality in 21 days. The Director of the University of Alberta’s sexual violence center has been removed from her position after she endorsed an open letter that denied allegations of rape and sexual violence by Hamas terrorists during the October massacre. Elon Musk is donating all X Corp revenue from advertising and subscriptions associated with the war in Gaza to hospitals in Israel and the Red Cross/Crescent in Gaza. Morning Joe admits Ukraine has lost the war against Russia. Fauci admits Covid vaccine causes myocarditis in young men. China welcomes Arab and Muslim foreign ministers for talks on ending war in Gaza. X surpasses Instagram and Facebook by a significant margin in driving traffic through Google. Elon Musk and X file lawsuit against Media Matters. Penalties both civil and criminal. Ken Paxton of Texas opens investigation into Media Matters for fraud. Truth Social filed defamation lawsuit against twenty media companies. Canadians have stopped caring about climate change. Texas Attorney General Paxton has sued Pfizer. Marjorie Taylor Greene questions whether Nancy Pelosi orchestrated January 6th. Trump releases doctor letter touting health and weight loss on Biden’s birthday. The Iowa Board of Regents has voted to abolish DEI in all State Universities. Rumble under ‘major DDoS attack after CEO pledged to join Elon Musk to fight woke censorship. An official UK inquiry panel reports that Boris Johnson was bamboozled by Covid data. Sam Altman of OpenAI fired. Reinstated and two women board members let go. Sam Bankman Fried convicted. Faces decades in prison. Italy bans production and sale of lab grown meat. Trans Activist company behind Miss Universe has filed for bankruptcy. A female boxer in Canada withdrew from a championship match after learning she was set to fight a trans-identified male. Financial As I reported here last week, Net-Zero and ESG are on their deathbed in every country but the most insane. CNBC fires staff dedicated to covering climate change. 19 Republican Attorneys General are going after the big banks for closing accounts and discriminating against customers over political/religious beliefs Trudeau’s billion-dollar Green Slush Fund’s head resigns, after it is discovered she funnelled $200K to her own company. Hong Kong bankers have lots of free time and anxiety as global dealmaking sinks. Bank of Canada’s Macklem says interest rates may be high enough to tame inflation. Bank of Canada reports that Canadians don’t need digital currency and don’t want it. SEC Commissioner says “there’s no reason for us to stand in the way of a Spot Bitcoin ETF. Russia, the most sanctioned country in the world will end the year with a $75 Billion profit. The US, the most indebted country in the world, will end 2023 with a lost of $@ Trillion. Luxury houses tied to China’s Evergrande chairman seized by creditor. Chairman placed under police surveillance. Argentine stock market up 20% after Milei’s election South Africa to chair BRICS extraordinary joint meeting on the situation in Gaza. Mortgage rates decline for the first time in two years. Inflation declines in Canada, the U.S. and the U.K. to lowest in two years. Dutch Central Bank has prepared for a new Gold Standard. Republicans building case against Antony Fauci. New emails show Fauci adviser suggesting he destroyed records. Jim Jordan issues subpoena to Bank of America for sharing customer’s private financial information with the FBI. Australian clamps down on migrants with criminal convictions. BLM activist Jayden X found guilty on all seven counts for his actions on January 6th. Decline in local U.S. news outlets is accelerating. Canada Media Fund admits subsidizing newspapers and news channels didn’t stop decline. Ghost busses uncovered filled with FBI agents dressed as Trump supporters on January 6th. Pfizer stock hits three year low, down 50% from 2021. Disney loses $40B from DeSantis pulling special treatment. Voter Fraud A federal judge in Georgia has ordered a trial for the case against Dominion machines. Trump declares he will bring everything to light, including the 2020 election fraud, concluding we need same day voting and paper ballots. Kim Phuong Taylor found guilty of 51 counts related to voter fraud in the election of her husband, Jeremy Taylor Fulton County, Georgia acknowledges that 3,600 ballots from the 2020 election audit were duplicated. Discrepancy turned over the the GA Attorney General for investigation. Obama-appointed federal judge just ruled against voting machines in Georgia. Maricopa County Elections Department has admitted they improperly certified the voting machines that failed on Election Day. Sixty percent of the machines failed. Trump: “We have so much evidence of election fraud, and I look forward to introducing it in my trials.” Colorado judge keeps Trump on 2024 primary ballot as latest 14th Amendment case falters. South Carolina implements Voter ID. Meta allows ads saying 2020 election was rigged on Facebook and Instagram. Stacey Abrams’ voting organization, overseen by Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock (who stole his seat), is facing serious allegations of financial fraud. Arizona Governor Katies Hobbs’ Election Task Force concluded that then-Secretary of State Hobbs engaged in election interference in 2022 by preventing Arizonans from voting while running her own election for governor. Wisconsin legislature has passed two constitutional amendment proposals that seek to prohibit noncitizen voting and the use of private money (ZuckBucks) to conduct elections. ZuckerBucks banned in 32 states. All this in fewer than ten days. The future should be blinding you right about now. \ Much of the mainstream news/propaganda is designed to oppress, depress and disempower you. Even independent journalism falls into despair all too often. I fight that with every fibre of my ability. I disagree. I do not think we are lost. I don’t think there is a new dark age ahead. I think quite the opposite. Again, I am grateful for all the subscriptions, paid and otherwise last week. “Put a chick in it” was enormously popular. When you like, subscribe and pay, I know where to go next with my writing. Thank you especially for the founding memberships and the people who send money via PayPal, and $20 bills from Thailand - you make a huge difference. Again, I keep my prices low so if you are not rich, you can afford to support me and others. If you are rich, consider a founding membership…cheaper in the long run! https://elizabethnickson.substack.com/p/can-you-feel-the-earth-shaking?utm_medium=ios

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The Age of Megathreats Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022 op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be. Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.” Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies. Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries. Goodbye to All That Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII. There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb. Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini. Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More. For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15. Subscribe Now With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea. Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any. Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy. There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia. Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.” But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate. Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind. Hard Choices, Hard Landings The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks. While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession). What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant). History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies. Sticky Stagflation In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral. Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction. This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth. Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc. Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade. On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable. The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods. Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise. The Worst of All Possible Economies When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing. Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis. While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent. The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture. Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate. With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates. How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates. For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage. The Moment of Truth In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one). And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters. How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust. In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix. Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse. Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.

The Age of Megathreats Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022 op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be. Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.” Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies. Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries. Goodbye to All That Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII. There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb. Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini. Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More. For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15. Subscribe Now With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea. Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any. Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy. There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia. Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.” But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate. Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind. Hard Choices, Hard Landings The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks. While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession). What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant). History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies. Sticky Stagflation In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral. Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction. This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth. Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc. Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade. On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable. The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods. Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise. The Worst of All Possible Economies When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing. Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis. While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent. The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture. Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate. With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates. How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates. For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage. The Moment of Truth In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one). And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters. How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust. In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix. Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse. Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.

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High interest rates and chaos in the real estate industry are combining to put an enormous amount of pressure on our largest financial institutions.