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  • From Zero To Off-Grid Hero...............
    Get The System We Used To Find Land And Build An Off-Grid Homestead, Retreat & Farm That Earns Nearly Passive Income... Starting With No Money.
    + See How This Has Worked For Other People Too
    (Bonus ending soon)

    This is for you if you want to get land, start a homestead, have rental income, a retreat centre, regenerative farm, or community and live in alignment with nature.

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    https://www.digistore24.com/redir/510033/Abrar769/
    We bought 160 acres and our own mountain and did exactly that. Even though we started out broke.

    I recorded a virtual training that shows you how we (and many others) have done it.

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    This training will increase to $197. Get it for...
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    How to raise money to buy land: rent-to-own, investors (and how to keep buy-back rights and control), crowdfunding, and using the land to cover it's own cost.

    And how to find land for $1 down and low monthly payments. See client stories below!

    How to use the government mapping systems to find land with no-zoning that you can do almost whatever you want on.

    Unlimited structures and people, no by-laws, don't need a license to make money on it, etc.

    The tool we use to generate six figures per year on our land. How to take all your ideas and measure which one will work best.

    What we do for income and how we nearly automate it so we can spend time on things we enjoy.

    How to get expert help (for free) you create your vision in areas that you don't know how.

    And how to find people to help take the workload off you so you can spend time doing what you enjoy.

    How to make sure your property has good water. What equipment to use (or to avoid) for generating your own power.

    What structures to get first, how to fund them even if you're starting from nothing.

    How to design your land using permaculture methods so you do things right the first time and don't break the budget.

    Keeping your land protected from wildfires and operating efficiently.
    Our Clients Stories...
    These folks raised funds within 90 days after working with us to get their dream properties.

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    They bought 123 acres.

    Ruth was generating cash flow from her land within 30 days after taking the program so it can pay for itself!

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    This program changes lives.

    https://www.digistore24.com/redir/510033/Abrar769/
    Marie Bought 6 Acres In South Carolina. She Has Yurts, A Tipi, Gardens And Animals In Only 11 Months.
    Partnered with someone to get the land
    ​After homeschooling 6 kids she's passionate about education
    ​Runs her outdoor Waldorf-inspired kids academy
    Owner financing 12 more acres next door to host retreats

    Jonathon Started From Zero. He Raised $3.2 Million, Bought 55 Acres & Built A Community In Costa Rica.
    Landed in Costa Rica with nothing, no idea what he was going to do
    Got 5 acres with an owner financing deal
    Raised $3.2 million through selling the casitas (small homes) in his community
    ​Building 25 casitas, has a greenhouse, a pool, community and retreat space
    ​Bought 50 acres next door to expand

    Cole, 22 Years Old, Went From Landscaping To Buying 14 Off Grid Properties In Texas, Tennessee, And West Virginia Using None Of His Own Money
    Graduated high school, worked in construction and started a landscaping business
    ​Tried wholesaling properties in the city, it didn't work well
    Switched to rural land and found owner financing deals
    Bought 14 rural properties in the last 12 months

    FJ And His Family Started From Scratch. They Partnered With Someone & Bought 40 Acres In Pennsylvania. They're Building A Homestead, Retreat Centre & Farm.
    Got $400,000 off the property
    Got $200,000 worth of machinery for free
    Property is almost turn-key to generate enough income to cover all the bills
    ​Nearby farm offered to build FJ’s farm out for free on his property funded by state money

    Carson, From Canada, Posted In 2 Facebook Groups Using Our Methods & Got 10 Land Offers & 1 Investment Offer In 24 Hours
    Didn't know where to start
    ​Got 25% of the way through the course, followed the directions, wrote his vision, and posted it in 2 FB groups
    ​Thousands of comments and likes and 10 land offers
    He was sitting down for breakfast with someone who wanted to invest in his vision the next morning

    Get The Workshop: From No Money To Buying Land & Nearly Passive Income

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    Only $17 Today
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    Click Here To Get The Workshop + Your Free Gift Before It Ends
    *Yes, this works in the US, Canada, Australia, Europe, Costa Rica, Mexico, & more
    Meet Jaymie & Shelby
    These two Indigenous brothers (Grassy Narrows First Nation) saw a society that lacks real community and leads to poor mental health; food that's actually synthetic crap; and weather events like wildfires and floods happening more and more often.
    https://www.digistore24.com/redir/510033/Abrar769/
    Not to mention politics or what you see on the news...

    For the sake of their physical and mental health, the health of their families, and our environment, they decided to build their 160 acre off grid sanctuary.

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    Their journey started after going bankrupt during the p*nd*mic.

    Starting with no money and a pile of debt, they found creative ways to raise funds and get help.

    Jaymie with his 4-legged friend and protector, Jaxson, on their 160 acre sanctuary during a workshop.
    Now they're on their way to creating a homestead, permaculture farm, retreat centre, and community that will be one of the top demonstration sites on the planet.

    The original plan was to retire in the forest but people kept asking for help.

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    They have since served over 4500 people in over 21 countries and they're only getting started.

    Shelby building a shower tower out of logs fresh from the chainsaw mill at one of the hydrotherapy spa areas on their land.
    Get The Workshop: From No Money To Buying Land & Nearly Passive Income

    This will increase to $197. Save $180.
    Only $17 Today
    2 Hour Workshop With Actionable Info (All Value, No Time Wasting)
    Instant Access + Unlimited Access
    Community Access (Private Group Of Likeminded People Doing This Right Now)
    ​The Strategy Handbook eBook - The strategies we used to buy land and build an off-grid homestead that makes $30k per month - starting with nothing
    Click Here To Get The Workshop + Your Free Gift Before It Endshttps://www.digistore24.com/redir/510033/Abrar769/
    *Yes, this works in the US, Canada, Australia, Europe, Costa Rica, Mexico, & more
    REFUND POLICY: You may request a refund within 60 days if you are not satisfied with the course content.

    Any queries can be sent to [email protected].

    CURRENCY: Sales are in USD. We are currently in Canada but we are an international business with clients in over 22 countries, we have international teammates all over the world, and are expanding to additional physical locations abroad, so it only makes sense to operate in USD as a central currency.
    Click here to promolink
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    From Zero To Off-Grid Hero............... Get The System We Used To Find Land And Build An Off-Grid Homestead, Retreat & Farm That Earns Nearly Passive Income... Starting With No Money. + See How This Has Worked For Other People Too (Bonus ending soon) This is for you if you want to get land, start a homestead, have rental income, a retreat centre, regenerative farm, or community and live in alignment with nature. The world needs more of this! https://www.digistore24.com/redir/510033/Abrar769/ We bought 160 acres and our own mountain and did exactly that. Even though we started out broke. I recorded a virtual training that shows you how we (and many others) have done it. It covers raising money, finding land, generating an income, making it passive, finding people to help you... Water, power, structures... what to buy, what NOT to, and how to save money. Ready to make this actually happen? ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Over 4500 people helped, in 21 countries Get The Workshop: From No Money To Buying Land & Nearly Passive Income https://www.digistore24.com/redir/510033/Abrar769/ This training will increase to $197. Get it for... Only $17 Today You get unlimited access + our Strategy eBook You Get The Exact Things Working For Us & 4500+ People Around The World Doing This Right Now How to raise money to buy land: rent-to-own, investors (and how to keep buy-back rights and control), crowdfunding, and using the land to cover it's own cost. And how to find land for $1 down and low monthly payments. See client stories below! How to use the government mapping systems to find land with no-zoning that you can do almost whatever you want on. Unlimited structures and people, no by-laws, don't need a license to make money on it, etc. The tool we use to generate six figures per year on our land. How to take all your ideas and measure which one will work best. What we do for income and how we nearly automate it so we can spend time on things we enjoy. How to get expert help (for free) you create your vision in areas that you don't know how. And how to find people to help take the workload off you so you can spend time doing what you enjoy. How to make sure your property has good water. What equipment to use (or to avoid) for generating your own power. What structures to get first, how to fund them even if you're starting from nothing. How to design your land using permaculture methods so you do things right the first time and don't break the budget. Keeping your land protected from wildfires and operating efficiently. Our Clients Stories... These folks raised funds within 90 days after working with us to get their dream properties. https://www.digistore24.com/redir/510033/Abrar769/ They bought 123 acres. Ruth was generating cash flow from her land within 30 days after taking the program so it can pay for itself! Andrew, Trisha, and Chai are blown away and truly impressed. This program changes lives. https://www.digistore24.com/redir/510033/Abrar769/ Marie Bought 6 Acres In South Carolina. She Has Yurts, A Tipi, Gardens And Animals In Only 11 Months. Partnered with someone to get the land ​After homeschooling 6 kids she's passionate about education ​Runs her outdoor Waldorf-inspired kids academy Owner financing 12 more acres next door to host retreats Jonathon Started From Zero. He Raised $3.2 Million, Bought 55 Acres & Built A Community In Costa Rica. Landed in Costa Rica with nothing, no idea what he was going to do Got 5 acres with an owner financing deal Raised $3.2 million through selling the casitas (small homes) in his community ​Building 25 casitas, has a greenhouse, a pool, community and retreat space ​Bought 50 acres next door to expand Cole, 22 Years Old, Went From Landscaping To Buying 14 Off Grid Properties In Texas, Tennessee, And West Virginia Using None Of His Own Money Graduated high school, worked in construction and started a landscaping business ​Tried wholesaling properties in the city, it didn't work well Switched to rural land and found owner financing deals Bought 14 rural properties in the last 12 months FJ And His Family Started From Scratch. They Partnered With Someone & Bought 40 Acres In Pennsylvania. They're Building A Homestead, Retreat Centre & Farm. Got $400,000 off the property Got $200,000 worth of machinery for free Property is almost turn-key to generate enough income to cover all the bills ​Nearby farm offered to build FJ’s farm out for free on his property funded by state money Carson, From Canada, Posted In 2 Facebook Groups Using Our Methods & Got 10 Land Offers & 1 Investment Offer In 24 Hours Didn't know where to start ​Got 25% of the way through the course, followed the directions, wrote his vision, and posted it in 2 FB groups ​Thousands of comments and likes and 10 land offers He was sitting down for breakfast with someone who wanted to invest in his vision the next morning Get The Workshop: From No Money To Buying Land & Nearly Passive Income This will increase to $197. Save $180. Only $17 Today 2 Hour Workshop With Actionable Info (All Value, No Time Wasting) Instant Access + Unlimited Access Community Access (Private Group Of Likeminded People Doing This Right Now) ​The Strategy Handbook eBook - The strategies we used to buy land and build an off-grid homestead that makes $30k per month - starting with nothing Click Here To Get The Workshop + Your Free Gift Before It Ends *Yes, this works in the US, Canada, Australia, Europe, Costa Rica, Mexico, & more Meet Jaymie & Shelby These two Indigenous brothers (Grassy Narrows First Nation) saw a society that lacks real community and leads to poor mental health; food that's actually synthetic crap; and weather events like wildfires and floods happening more and more often. https://www.digistore24.com/redir/510033/Abrar769/ Not to mention politics or what you see on the news... For the sake of their physical and mental health, the health of their families, and our environment, they decided to build their 160 acre off grid sanctuary. To inspire and provide a beautiful new way of living for future generations. Their journey started after going bankrupt during the p*nd*mic. Starting with no money and a pile of debt, they found creative ways to raise funds and get help. Jaymie with his 4-legged friend and protector, Jaxson, on their 160 acre sanctuary during a workshop. Now they're on their way to creating a homestead, permaculture farm, retreat centre, and community that will be one of the top demonstration sites on the planet. The original plan was to retire in the forest but people kept asking for help. Jaymie and Shelby believe in serving others and making the world a better place. As Jaymie put it... "People aren't asking for 5 fancy cars and huge houses... just a piece of land to live well. That's not too much to ask. Actually, that's what everyone deserves. I'm grateful our journey has lead us to filling this gap in society." They have since served over 4500 people in over 21 countries and they're only getting started. Shelby building a shower tower out of logs fresh from the chainsaw mill at one of the hydrotherapy spa areas on their land. Get The Workshop: From No Money To Buying Land & Nearly Passive Income This will increase to $197. Save $180. Only $17 Today 2 Hour Workshop With Actionable Info (All Value, No Time Wasting) Instant Access + Unlimited Access Community Access (Private Group Of Likeminded People Doing This Right Now) ​The Strategy Handbook eBook - The strategies we used to buy land and build an off-grid homestead that makes $30k per month - starting with nothing Click Here To Get The Workshop + Your Free Gift Before It Endshttps://www.digistore24.com/redir/510033/Abrar769/ *Yes, this works in the US, Canada, Australia, Europe, Costa Rica, Mexico, & more REFUND POLICY: You may request a refund within 60 days if you are not satisfied with the course content. Any queries can be sent to [email protected]. CURRENCY: Sales are in USD. We are currently in Canada but we are an international business with clients in over 22 countries, we have international teammates all over the world, and are expanding to additional physical locations abroad, so it only makes sense to operate in USD as a central currency. Click here to promolink 👇 Live The Off-Grid Dream 2023, https://www.digistore24.com/redir/510033/Abrar769/
    1 Comments 0 Shares 5796 Views

  • Sisconline

    YOUTUBE CHANNEL INCOME

    Learn The Top Secrets Used To Make Millions From Youtube


    70% OFF valid until 6th March 2023


    Before price $56

    Buy now for $16 & Save $40

    Resell for $45 - $75




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    Ending Soon


    With over a billion unique YouTube visitors per month, YouTube is one of the most visited and largest websites in the world. Also, it's one of the easiest platforms to get a great amount of money for your pocket.

    YouTube megastars like Ryan Higa, Ray William Johnson, and Bethany Mota have amassed billions of views simply through vlogging. This has almost certainly raked in seven figures or more in revenue while leading to untold opportunities outside of YouTube.

    And then there are the channels that house much more substance while remaining impressively popular. Take Creative Live, the Ask Gary Vee Show, and Big Think.

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    Table of contents

    About YouTube

    The Technical Guide to setting up a YouTube Channel – Step by Step

    Tips on Starting a New and Successful YouTube Channel

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    How can Beauty Vloggers grow their YouTube Channel?

    Tips to create a Gaming Channel on YouTube

    How to Guest Vlog on YouTube and Get More Channel Views

    Advanced Tactics for Promoting Your YouTube Channel and Increasing Subscribers

    Best Tips on Profitable YouTube Advertising & Promotion

    How to drive sales using YouTube Cards?

    YouTube SEO Tips

    YouTube Analytics

    How to make YouTube a part of Successful B2B Marketing Funnel?

    Tools and Apps to grow your YouTube Channel

    YouTube Marketing Trends

    Case studies


    The Video should become a critical piece of the marketing puzzle because of how much video content your audience is consuming. But, with many other companies knowing this, it’s becoming harder and harder to stand out amongst your competition. This is why advertising spends does need to be allocated to services like YouTube in order to gain visibility from your target audience. Although similar to paid search spend, the world of YouTube advertising can seem a bit overwhelming and complicated to navigate at first. Below are six tips to help you spend your YouTube ad budget in a smart way to actually gain attention from the people that matter the most, your future customers.
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    300 hours of YouTube video are uploaded every minute—if you want to get noticed, you have to get serious about promoting your channel. It’s not rocket science, but it’s not going to happen on its own. Let’s take a deeper dive into 9 best practices and how they can help you grow your numbers.


    With such a huge number of views everyday YouTube is one site where you would definitely want to run an ad campaign. You have multiple options available when it comes to the kind of advertising campaign you want to run. You can use one of the several marketing programs or you can use the video target tool to place your ads.


    Included inside this exceptional bundle :

    eBook

    Mind Map

    Cheat Sheet

    Top Resource Report


    Learn from a to z about how to make money from your youtube channel.

    This is the complete guide about Youtube.




    100% RESELLABLE




    Click the button below and Invest in this eBook




    File Size: 5.8 MB





    Product Terms



    [YES] Can be sold



    [YES] Can be used for personal use



    [YES] Can be packaged with other products



    [YES] Can be added to paid membership websites



    [YES] Can put your name on the sales letter



    [YES] Can be offered as a bonus



    [YES] Can be used to build a list





    [NO] Can modify/change the sales letter



    [NO] Can modify/change the main product



    [NO] Can modify/change the graphics and ecover



    [NO] Can print/publish offline



    [NO] Can be given away for free



    [NO] Can be added to free membership websites



    [NO] Can convey and sell Personal Use Rights



    [NO] Can convey and sell Resale Rights



    [NO] Can convey and sell Master Resale Rights



    [NO] Can convey and sell Private Label Rights


    60 DAY MONEY BACK GUARANTEED
    You can test drive this product for a full 60 days after your purchase to check out this product to see if it is for you.



    Read it. Absorb. Apply it to your life. Observe the results.



    If for any reason at all, you're not satisfied with this product whatsoever, just send us an email saying the reason why you want the money back, and I'll refund your purchase in 3 to 5 Business days if only you haven't resold the book. You have to delete the copy off your hard drive.


    YOU CANNOT LOSE.

    https://www.digistore24.com/redir/408365/Abrar769/




    ©2021 Copyright Runolfsson LLC

    https://www.digistore24.com/redir/408365/Abrar769/



    Legal notice


    Legal & Disclaimers

    This site is not a part of the Youtube website. Additionally,

    This site is NOT endorsed by Youtube in any way.

    https://www.digistore24.com/redir/408365/Abrar769/

    *Earnings and income representations made by Sisconline, and their advertisers/sponsors are aspirational statements only of your earnings potential. These results are not typical and results will vary. The results on this page are OUR results and from years of testing. We can in NO way guarantee you will get similar results. Please understand our results are not typical, I’m not implying you’ll duplicate them (or do anything for that matter). The average person who buys any "how to" information gets little to no results. I’m using these references for example purposes only. Your results will vary and depend on many factors

    Sisconline

    by

    Runolfsson LLC

    ©2021 CopyrightRunolfsson LLC
    https://www.digistore24.com/redir/408365/Abrar769/
    Sisconline YOUTUBE CHANNEL INCOME Learn The Top Secrets Used To Make Millions From Youtube 70% OFF valid until 6th March 2023 Before price $56 Buy now for $16 & Save $40 Resell for $45 - $75 All of our products are 100% Resealable Earn up to $59 Pure Profit from Reselling this Bundle https://www.digistore24.com/redir/408365/Abrar769/ Ending Soon With over a billion unique YouTube visitors per month, YouTube is one of the most visited and largest websites in the world. Also, it's one of the easiest platforms to get a great amount of money for your pocket. YouTube megastars like Ryan Higa, Ray William Johnson, and Bethany Mota have amassed billions of views simply through vlogging. This has almost certainly raked in seven figures or more in revenue while leading to untold opportunities outside of YouTube. And then there are the channels that house much more substance while remaining impressively popular. Take Creative Live, the Ask Gary Vee Show, and Big Think. These channels may all be entirely different, but share the common factor of regularly being watched by huge numbers of people. This is because they’ve stuck to at least some of the key ingredients that you are about to learn from this bundle. Table of contents About YouTube The Technical Guide to setting up a YouTube Channel – Step by Step Tips on Starting a New and Successful YouTube Channel How to monetize your YouTube Channel Tips to Promote Merchandise on Your YouTube Channel How can Beauty Vloggers grow their YouTube Channel? Tips to create a Gaming Channel on YouTube How to Guest Vlog on YouTube and Get More Channel Views Advanced Tactics for Promoting Your YouTube Channel and Increasing Subscribers Best Tips on Profitable YouTube Advertising & Promotion How to drive sales using YouTube Cards? YouTube SEO Tips YouTube Analytics How to make YouTube a part of Successful B2B Marketing Funnel? Tools and Apps to grow your YouTube Channel YouTube Marketing Trends Case studies The Video should become a critical piece of the marketing puzzle because of how much video content your audience is consuming. But, with many other companies knowing this, it’s becoming harder and harder to stand out amongst your competition. This is why advertising spends does need to be allocated to services like YouTube in order to gain visibility from your target audience. Although similar to paid search spend, the world of YouTube advertising can seem a bit overwhelming and complicated to navigate at first. Below are six tips to help you spend your YouTube ad budget in a smart way to actually gain attention from the people that matter the most, your future customers. https://www.digistore24.com/redir/408365/Abrar769/ 300 hours of YouTube video are uploaded every minute—if you want to get noticed, you have to get serious about promoting your channel. It’s not rocket science, but it’s not going to happen on its own. Let’s take a deeper dive into 9 best practices and how they can help you grow your numbers. With such a huge number of views everyday YouTube is one site where you would definitely want to run an ad campaign. You have multiple options available when it comes to the kind of advertising campaign you want to run. You can use one of the several marketing programs or you can use the video target tool to place your ads. Included inside this exceptional bundle : eBook Mind Map Cheat Sheet Top Resource Report Learn from a to z about how to make money from your youtube channel. This is the complete guide about Youtube. 100% RESELLABLE Click the button below and Invest in this eBook File Size: 5.8 MB ​ ​ Product Terms ​ [YES] Can be sold [YES] Can be used for personal use [YES] Can be packaged with other products [YES] Can be added to paid membership websites [YES] Can put your name on the sales letter [YES] Can be offered as a bonus [YES] Can be used to build a list ​ ​ [NO] Can modify/change the sales letter [NO] Can modify/change the main product [NO] Can modify/change the graphics and ecover [NO] Can print/publish offline [NO] Can be given away for free [NO] Can be added to free membership websites [NO] Can convey and sell Personal Use Rights [NO] Can convey and sell Resale Rights [NO] Can convey and sell Master Resale Rights [NO] Can convey and sell Private Label Rights 60 DAY MONEY BACK GUARANTEED You can test drive this product for a full 60 days after your purchase to check out this product to see if it is for you. Read it. Absorb. Apply it to your life. Observe the results. If for any reason at all, you're not satisfied with this product whatsoever, just send us an email saying the reason why you want the money back, and I'll refund your purchase in 3 to 5 Business days if only you haven't resold the book. You have to delete the copy off your hard drive. YOU CANNOT LOSE. https://www.digistore24.com/redir/408365/Abrar769/ ©2021 Copyright Runolfsson LLC ​https://www.digistore24.com/redir/408365/Abrar769/ ​ Legal notice Legal & Disclaimers This site is not a part of the Youtube website. Additionally, This site is NOT endorsed by Youtube in any way. ​https://www.digistore24.com/redir/408365/Abrar769/ *Earnings and income representations made by Sisconline, and their advertisers/sponsors are aspirational statements only of your earnings potential. These results are not typical and results will vary. The results on this page are OUR results and from years of testing. We can in NO way guarantee you will get similar results. Please understand our results are not typical, I’m not implying you’ll duplicate them (or do anything for that matter). The average person who buys any "how to" information gets little to no results. I’m using these references for example purposes only. Your results will vary and depend on many factors Sisconline by Runolfsson LLC ©2021 CopyrightRunolfsson LLC https://www.digistore24.com/redir/408365/Abrar769/
    WWW.DIGISTORE24.COM
    Sisconline
    YouTube Channel Income Learn The Top Secrets Used To Make Millions From Youtube
    0 Comments 0 Shares 4085 Views
  • TikTok Marketing - 90% COMMISSIONS ECURE ORDER
    TikTok Marketing
    Are You Ready To Leverage The TikTok Platform For Profits?

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    You will learn how to use the TikTok platform to market your business successfully.
    You will learn that a number of businesses and organizations have already leveraged the TikTok platform to get the word out.
    You will be able to engage with your audience on TikTok.
    You will learn how to create viral videos and grow your TikTok account.
    You will know how the platform works and how the users interact with each other.
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    Creating Content For TikTok
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    TikTok Use Cases To Inspire You
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    You want to know how the platform works and how the users interact with each other.
    You want to generate more engagement to your audience on TikTok.
    You want to create successful marketing campaigns.
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    PS I've compiled some of the most frequently asked questions about the guide that will show you how to plan for success!

    Frequently Asked Questions
    Q&A What's this all about?

    This is a guide that will show you how to leverage The TikTok Platform for Profits!

    Q&A Who is this for?

    If you answer YES to any of the below, you need this


    You want to learn how to use the TikTok platform to market your business successfully.
    You want to learn how create creative videos that get the users involved in their brand in a fun way.
    You want to know how the platform works and how the users interact with each other.
    You want to generate more engagement to your audience on TikTok.
    You want to create successful marketing campaigns.
    Q&A How long until I see results?

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    Q&A Is there a guarantee?

    You bet. You get a full 60 days to make sure this is for you. If for any reason, or no reason at all, you're not 100% satisfied, simply send me an email, and I'll refund every penny of your tiny investment

    No questions asked!

    $14.95
    Buy Button
    TikTok Marketing Guide is in PDF format . You can download it immediately after the payment.

    Privacy Policy | Disclaimer | Terms and Conditions | Support

    These earnings are not representative for the average participants. The average participant will earn significantly less or no money at all through this product or service.
    2023 © . (United States) Inc. and/or its licensors. Review legal terms of use here and privacy policy here. Contact us here.
    https://www.digistore24.com/redir/482390/Abrar769/
    TikTok Marketing - 90% COMMISSIONS ECURE ORDER TikTok Marketing Are You Ready To Leverage The TikTok Platform For Profits? It's About Time For You To Learn TikTok Marketing! Promolink 👇 https://www.digistore24.com/redir/482390/Abrar769/ You need to make a good start with TikTok if you want to be successful with it. In March 2019 there had been over 1 billion installs of TikTok. There are over 500 million active users of TikTok and 26.5 million of these are from the United States. Dear Friend, https://www.digistore24.com/redir/482390/Abrar769/ The TikTok social media platform has seen explosive growth over the last two years. It now has 500 million users that are desperate for fun and exciting content and this is a massive opportunity for you to promote your business. 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IF YOU ANSWER YES TO ANY OF THE BELOW, YOU NEED THIS Thinking You want to learn how to use the TikTok platform to market your business successfully. You want to learn how create creative videos that get the users involved in their brand in a fun way. You want to know how the platform works and how the users interact with each other. You want to generate more engagement to your audience on TikTok. You want to create successful marketing campaigns. Does This Sound Like Exactly What You Need? But maybe your question is: How Much? If you were going to hire an expert on this, to show you how it's done, you could easily find yourself investing hundreds of dollars for this sort of coaching. In fact, many people invest hundreds and thousands of dollars to get into coaching programs or attend workshops... 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Chapter 1: What Is YouTube All About? 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I can keep telling you just how great my guide is, but you really need to go through it and see for yourself what it's all about to know if it's for you That's why I'm going to give you a FULL 60 days to decide if this is for you If for any reason, or no reason at all, you're not 100% satisfied with what's inside, simply send me an email, and and I'll refund every penny of your tiny investment No questions asked! Click The Button Below Now To Get INSTANT ACCESS $14.95 https://www.digistore24.com/redir/482390/Abrar769/ TikTok Marketing Guide is in PDF format . You can download it immediately after the payment. Thank you so much for taking the time to take a look at this extremely limited offer that has the potential to help you profit from TikTok! I'll see you on the inside! Bruce Johnson PS I've compiled some of the most frequently asked questions about the guide that will show you how to plan for success! Frequently Asked Questions Q&A What's this all about? This is a guide that will show you how to leverage The TikTok Platform for Profits! Q&A Who is this for? If you answer YES to any of the below, you need this You want to learn how to use the TikTok platform to market your business successfully. You want to learn how create creative videos that get the users involved in their brand in a fun way. You want to know how the platform works and how the users interact with each other. You want to generate more engagement to your audience on TikTok. You want to create successful marketing campaigns. Q&A How long until I see results? You can begin seeing results extremely quickly. Within days and sometimes even within hours of getting started. The more you make this a part of your daily life, the better the results you'll get. Q&A How do I get INSTANT ACCESS? Click the button below now Q&A Do I need to buy anything other than this guide? That's the great thing about this. All you need to learn about profiting from TikTok, is in this step-by-step guide. Q&A How is this guide delivered? You'll get instant access to a PDF version of this guide along with download links for the rest of the bonuses. There's no waiting. You can get started RIGHT NOW. Q&A How much? If you were going to hire an expert on this, to show you how it's done, you could easily find yourself investing hundreds of dollars for this sort of coaching. But, you won't have to invest anywhere near that today. Q&A Is there a guarantee? You bet. You get a full 60 days to make sure this is for you. If for any reason, or no reason at all, you're not 100% satisfied, simply send me an email, and I'll refund every penny of your tiny investment No questions asked! $14.95 Buy Button TikTok Marketing Guide is in PDF format . You can download it immediately after the payment. Privacy Policy | Disclaimer | Terms and Conditions | Support These earnings are not representative for the average participants. The average participant will earn significantly less or no money at all through this product or service. 2023 © . (United States) Inc. and/or its licensors. Review legal terms of use here and privacy policy here. Contact us here. https://www.digistore24.com/redir/482390/Abrar769/
    0 Comments 0 Shares 6112 Views
  • The Immune System and Vaccines are Complicated ⋆ Brownstone Institute
    The Immune System and Vaccines are Complicated
    SHARE | PRINT | EMAIL
    Vaccines are a complicated area, which is because the immune system is immensely complicated. Targeted vaccines have ancillary effects, and it is not possible to predict what they are.

    Professor Peter Aaby’s group has done ground-breaking research on the effects of vaccines in randomized trials and in field studies. His team discovered that all live, attenuated vaccines decrease total mortality whereas some non-live vaccines increase total mortality. There are also gender differences, and the sequence of vaccinations is important. It is best to end with a live vaccine.

    My rule of thumb is that if a vaccine is part of the official vaccination program in some countries and not in others of similar standing, it is not important to get vaccinated. An example is the rotavirus vaccine against diarrhoea, which is not on the childhood program in Denmark even though we had a strong lobby group promoting it.

    The Measles Vaccines
    The measles vaccines are a good example that live, attenuated vaccines decrease total mortality much more than what is possible based on their targeted effect, in this case on preventing measles. In a randomised trial in Bissau, for example, children vaccinated against measles at age 6 months had 70 percent lower mortality than unvaccinated children, and this reduction was not due to prevention of measles infection. The WHO has estimated that there were 128,000 measles deaths globally in 2021, mostly among unvaccinated or under-vaccinated children under the age of 5 years.

    If we do not vaccinate our children against measles, it will lead to many deaths and cases of severe brain damage that could have been avoided. We have a joint responsibility towards each other to ensure we get vaccinated because herd immunity is important. Measles is highly contagious, and to prevent the occurrence of measles epidemics, vaccinating about 95 percent of the population is necessary.

    Annual Influenza Jabs are not Needed
    People all over the world, particularly the elderly, are being nudged by the authorities to get an annual vaccination against influenza, but it is not at all obvious that this is a good idea. In fact, there are several reasons to be skeptical.

    First, the preventive effect is small. Twenty-nine people would need to be vaccinated to avoid one case of influenza-like illness and 71 people to avoid one case of influenza, and the vaccination does not reduce hospital admissions or days off work.

    Second, as the virus mutates quite rapidly, the effect obtained by vaccination will likely be smaller than in the randomized trials.

    Third, the vaccine has negative effects on the immune system. Canadian researchers showed in four different studies that people who received a seasonal influenza vaccine in 2008 had an increased risk of getting infected with another strain in 2009.

    Fourth, all vaccines cause harms, which can potentially be serious. Pandemrix, one of the influenza vaccines used during the 2009-2010 pandemic, caused narcolepsy in children and adolescents with a certain tissue type. Up to several years after vaccination of children and adolescents, people may suddenly start falling asleep while engaging in their normal activities, and there is no cure.

    Fifth, we should always consider the likelihood of getting infected without vaccination. Influenza pandemics are uncommon and rarely involve large portions of the population. In any given year, the likelihood of acquiring influenza if unvaccinated is therefore very small. I never had an influenza vaccination, and my wife, a professor in clinical microbiology, never had one, and together, we have perhaps had influenza twice for 135 years. But we don’t know. When people say they have influenza, it usually just means an influenza-like illness of which there are many, which vaccination does not protect against.

    Some fundamentalists, particularly in the United States and Australia, have mandated influenza vaccination of healthcare workers to protect patients. This violation of informed consent is deeply troubling and unethical. Moreover, a large review about vaccination of healthcare workers caring for elderly people did not find an effect on laboratory-proven influenza, lower respiratory tract infection, hospitalisation, death due to lower respiratory tract illness, or all-cause mortality.

    A researcher mentioned that, “to focus exclusively on the risk posed by unvaccinated workers – treating them as outcasts or, worse, terminating their employment – while overlooking the risk posed by vaccinated workers, potentially jeopardizes patients.” Indeed. Vaccination may provide staff with a false sense of security that might reduce their level of handwashing and potentially increase, rather than decrease, the risk of infecting patients.

    HPV Vaccines: Not a Simple Issue
    When the HPV vaccines were suspected of causing serious neurological harms – postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS), complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS), and chronic fatigue syndrome – the European Drug Agency cleared the vaccines. However, they did not investigate the issues themselves but let the manufacturers do it for them.

    My research group examined the clinical study reports submitted to the European Medicines Agency and found a significant increase in serious neurological harms. This was surprising because almost everyone in the control groups had been treated with a hepatitis vaccine or a strongly immunogenic adjuvant, which might also cause harms, making it difficult to detect the harms of the HPV vaccines.

    The Cochrane review of the HPV vaccines was incomplete and ignored important evidence of bias. The authors overlooked several adverse events and failed to mention that some of the included trials did not report serious adverse events for the whole trial period. For example, three Gardasil trials with a total of 21,441 girls or women with up to four years follow-up only reported serious adverse events occurring within 14 days post-vaccination even though it takes years in many patients before serious neurological harms get diagnosed.

    The Cochrane authors found more deaths in the HPV vaccine groups than in the comparator groups, and the death rate was significantly increased in women above age 25, risk ratio 2.36 (95 percent confidence interval 1.10 to 5.03). They considered this a chance occurrence since there was no pattern in the causes of death or in the time between vaccine administration and death.

    However, deaths are often miscoded. For example, traumatic head injury and drowning in a bathtub have been described, and this could have been caused by a syncope or near syncope, which is a recognized vaccine harm that can occur at any time. The serious neurological harms seem to be caused by an autoimmune reaction.

    The drug companies, EMA and Cochrane called the trials placebo-controlled, which they weren’t. I find it shocking that vaccines are not tested against placebo or no treatment because this makes it impossible to ever know with certainty what the rare but serious harms are. There is no good reason why vaccines – which are preventative drugs – are not tested in the same rigorous way as other drugs.

    EMA declared that the adjuvants used in the vaccines to boost the immune response are safe, but the five references provided in support of this view were either non-accessible or irrelevant. Furthermore, nothing is safe if it is active. GlaxoSmithKline has stated that its aluminum-based comparator might cause harms, and the clinical study reports show that this is also the case for Merck’s adjuvant.

    The decision-making is not straightforward. The official propaganda has made women believe that cervical cancer is a major threat to their lives, but this cancer only contributes 0.5 percent of all deaths. Thus, very few women can benefit from the HPV vaccines, and since they do not protect against all HPV types, regular screening is still recommended even for women who are vaccinated. As the precursors to cancer are very slow-growing, women can avoid getting cervical cancer if they go to screening. This is more effective than getting vaccinated, but it comes with a price, e.g. conization for cancer precursors increases the risk of preterm birth.

    COVID-19 Vaccines: A Mess
    The story of the COVID-19 vaccines is officially touted as one of success but what stands out is a story of massive deceit and lack of scientific evidence behind many of the recommendations.

    The randomized trials that led to emergency approval of the vaccines showed that only one of 50 severe cases of COVID-19 occurred in the vaccine groups. This makes it likely that the vaccines have saved lives, and meta-analyses of the trials showed that the adenovirus vector vaccines, but not the mRNA vaccines, decreased total mortality significantly.

    The hype has been extreme, however. Among those that have claimed 100 percent efficacy of the vaccines are the FDA, US presidential advisor Anthony Fauci, the Australian government, Science Magazine, Reuters, CNN, US National Public Radio, The Hill, Sky News, Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Johnson & Johnson. The efficacy is closer to 50 percent and many people, including me, have become infected despite having received two or more doses of the vaccine.

    Officials, including US President Joe Biden, once claimed that the vaccines were 100 percent protective against transmission to other people, but now it is widely acknowledged that there is no evidence that the vaccines can prevent transmission.

    The information on the website of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is particularly misleading. The CDC uses industry jargon when claiming that the vaccines are “safe and effective.” It states that “Adults and children may have some side effects from a COVID-19 vaccine, including pain, redness or swelling at the injection site, tiredness, headache, muscle pain, chills, fever, and nausea. These side effects typically resolve after a few days.  Serious side effects are rare but may occur.”

    The link to serious side effects does not lead to any mention of what those are. But we know that the vaccines kill some people, e.g. because they can cause myocarditis, most commonly in young males, and thromboses.

    The CDC recommends “everyone ages 6 months and older get an updated COVID-19 vaccine to protect against serious illness.” However, children tolerate the infection very well and it is likely harmful to vaccine children against COVID-19. Moreover, boosters may be harmful at any age but this is not popular information either. Facebook censored research and an interview with top vaccine researcher Professor Christine Stabell Benn even though the European Medicines Agency was also worried that COVID-19 vaccine boosters might be “overloading people’s immune systems and leading to fatigue.”

    Facebook also censored research that showed that the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines could weaken the immune response and make cells of the immune system “lazy” when it comes to fighting off viral and bacterial infections. Facebook called this research “false information.”

    The Cochrane Collaboration, which has the logo “Trusted information,” did not provide trusted information. The Cochrane authors used industry jargon in the title of their review, “Efficacy and safety of COVID‐19 vaccines,” even though I convinced Cochrane many years ago that we should talk about benefits and harms of the interventions we study, in agreement with the CONSORT guidelines for good reporting of harms in trials, which I coauthored in 2004.

    The Cochrane authors concluded that there is little or no difference in serious adverse events compared to placebo whereas Peter Doshi and colleagues who reanalysed the pivotal mRNA trials found that one additional serious adverse event occurred for every 800 people vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine. Their article, published four months before the Cochrane review, was not cited in it.

    When I studied the pivotal randomised trials, which were published in the New England Journal of Medicine and in the Lancet, I found that essential data on serious and severe harms were missing (see also my freely available book, The Chinese virus: killed millions and scientific freedom).

    Doshi et al.’s criticism of the Cochrane review, which is published within the review itself, is so substantial that it is fair to call the Cochrane review a politically expedient garbage in, garbage out exercise.

    There can be no doubt that the COVID-19 vaccines are much overused and partly to the wrong people. Now that most of us have had the infection, recommending booster after booster seems to be a particularly bad idea.

    Childhood Vaccines
    The childhood vaccination programs differ a lot from country to country. In the US, 17 vaccines are recommended, in Denmark only 10.

    Since vaccinations can weaken the immune system and since some non-live vaccines increase total mortality, it is reasonable to ask if the many vaccinations in the US could result in net harm.

    It is very important to study this possibility, but I am only aware of two researchers who have done it. They did several studies and found that those nations that require more vaccines for their infants have higher infant mortality, neonatal mortality, and under age five mortality. I find this an alarm signal that should lead to other studies as a matter of urgency.

    Censorship
    Censorship is detrimental for scientific debate and scientific advances, and it is harmful for the patients. But for vaccines, it is all over the place.

    Peter Aaby, one of the world’s top vaccine researchers, lectured about vaccines at the opening symposium for my Institute for Scientific Freedom in March 2019. In early November 2021, YouTube removed the video of his lecture. Everything he said was correct and important for people who want to understand what vaccines do. We appealed this outrageous act of censorship, but to no avail, and I therefore uploaded his lecture on my own website.

    In February 2022, a US lawyer wrote a 3-page letter to Susan Wojcicki, Chief Operating Officer, Legal Support, YouTube, asking her to restore Professor Aaby’s video about the beneficial and harmful effects of vaccines so that a healthy conversation surrounding medical science could continue. The lawyer received an automated message saying that the video had violated YouTube’s Community Guidelines, adding that “If you think a Community Guidelines strike was applied to your account in error, you can appeal it.” The lawyer appealed and received no reply.

    In July 2022, Christine Stabel Benn uploaded a videocast with Peter Aaby on YouTube about his research in Africa, which mainly addressed his discovery of the beneficial non-specific effects of measles vaccines. But Aaby also mentioned his interactions with the WHO related to the introduction of a high-titre measles vaccine, which he and his colleagues’ studies had shown increased mortality in girls.

    Initially, the WHO did not react, but when American colleagues confirmed Aaby’s findings in Haiti, the high-titre vaccine was withdrawn. It has been estimated that this vaccine would have cost around 0.5 million lives per year in Africa alone. It is an important lesson that a highly beneficial vaccine that has saved millions of lives can kill millions if used in too high doses. But YouTube quickly removed the videocast due to “inappropriate content.” Censorship kills. It is as simple as that.

    In September 2022, I was interviewed by enGrama in Spain for an hour about organised crime in psychiatry and the drug industry. I spoke about COVID-19 for 5 minutes, which made YouTube instantly eliminate the whole interview. This was utterly ridiculous. What I said was true, but YouTube even refused to allow the interviewers to download their own video. Later, they succeeded to reproduce it via the YouTube Studio and it is now up again, but without the forbidden 5 minutes. I have described verbatim what they were about.

    I was convinced – and still am – that the pandemic was caused by a laboratory leak in Wuhan and that the virus was manufactured there; that repeated vaccinations could weaken the immune response; and that the vaccines can cause serious harm, even death. All of which is considered taboo by social media.

    In September 2023, I launched an evidence-based podcast channel, Broken Medical Science, in collaboration with documentary filmmaker Janus Bang. To avoid censorship, we have our own server but also publish the episodes on social media. I interviewed Professor Martin Kulldorff, one of the authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, about “The harmful effects of lockdowns, facemask mandates, censorship, and scientific dishonesty,” and Christine Stabell Benn about “Vaccines, a complicated area. Some decrease total mortality, some increase it, and COVID-19 vaccines are overused.”

    Within 7 minutes after we uploaded these episodes on YouTube, they got this label: “COVID-19 vaccine. Learn about vaccine progress from the WHO.” But some of the WHO’s information was questionable, which we addressed in our newsletter:

    What are the benefits of getting vaccinated against COVID-19?

    One should always ask what the benefits and harms are, of any intervention. The vaccines have killed some people because of myocarditis and thromboses.

    Getting vaccinated could save your life. COVID-19 vaccines have saved millions of lives.

    What is the evidence for this? The vaccines are not particularly effective because the virus mutates.

    Consider continuing to practice protective and preventive behaviours such as keeping a distance, wearing a mask in crowded and poorly ventilated spaces.

    The randomized trials have not found any effect of face masks.

    Even if you have had COVID-19, the WHO still recommends that you get vaccinated after infection because vaccination enhances your protection against severe outcomes of future COVID-19 infection, and you may be protected for longer. Furthermore, hybrid immunity resulting from vaccine and infection may provide superior protection against existing variants of concern.

    This has not been documented, and many researchers doubt that it is correct.

    To ensure optimal protection, it is important to receive COVID-19 vaccine doses and boosters recommended to you by your health authority.

    It has not been documented that boosters are beneficial, and the European Medicines Agency has warned that boosters may be harmful, as they may weaken the immune system.

    In both cases, within a couple of hours, YouTube removed the link to the WHO, with no explanation. We speculate that perhaps YouTube is worried about their reputation. I had interviewed two of the most knowledgeable people in the world about vaccines who, to some extent, contradicted the WHO’s recommendations, based on solid science.

    It is time to change the paradigm about vaccines, and to study them more thoroughly – and their combinations – before they are possibly allowed onto the market.

    A Final Word about Censorship
    My deputy director, PhD Maryanne Demasi, and I have been unable to publish our systematic review of serious harms of the COVID-19 vaccines in a medical journal. This is not because I don’t know how to do research and publish it in good journals. I have published over 100 papers in “the big five” (BMJ, Lancet, JAMA, Annals of Internal Medicine and New England Journal of Medicine) and my scientific works have been cited over 190,000 times.


    Published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
    For reprints, please set the canonical link back to the original Brownstone Institute Article and Author.

    Dr. Peter Gøtzsche co-founded the Cochrane Collaboration, once considered the world’s preeminent independent medical research organization. In 2010 Gøtzsche was named Professor of Clinical Research Design and Analysis at the University of Copenhagen. Gøtzsche has published more than 97 papers in the “big five” medical journals (JAMA, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, British Medical Journal, and Annals of Internal Medicine). Gøtzsche has also authored books on medical issues including Deadly Medicines and Organized Crime. Following many years of being an outspoken critic of the corruption of science by pharmaceutical companies, Gøtzsche’s membership on the governing board of Cochrane was terminated by its Board of Trustees in September, 2018. Four board resigned in protest.


    https://brownstone.org/articles/the-immune-system-and-vaccines-are-complicated/
    The Immune System and Vaccines are Complicated ⋆ Brownstone Institute The Immune System and Vaccines are Complicated SHARE | PRINT | EMAIL Vaccines are a complicated area, which is because the immune system is immensely complicated. Targeted vaccines have ancillary effects, and it is not possible to predict what they are. Professor Peter Aaby’s group has done ground-breaking research on the effects of vaccines in randomized trials and in field studies. His team discovered that all live, attenuated vaccines decrease total mortality whereas some non-live vaccines increase total mortality. There are also gender differences, and the sequence of vaccinations is important. It is best to end with a live vaccine. My rule of thumb is that if a vaccine is part of the official vaccination program in some countries and not in others of similar standing, it is not important to get vaccinated. An example is the rotavirus vaccine against diarrhoea, which is not on the childhood program in Denmark even though we had a strong lobby group promoting it. The Measles Vaccines The measles vaccines are a good example that live, attenuated vaccines decrease total mortality much more than what is possible based on their targeted effect, in this case on preventing measles. In a randomised trial in Bissau, for example, children vaccinated against measles at age 6 months had 70 percent lower mortality than unvaccinated children, and this reduction was not due to prevention of measles infection. The WHO has estimated that there were 128,000 measles deaths globally in 2021, mostly among unvaccinated or under-vaccinated children under the age of 5 years. If we do not vaccinate our children against measles, it will lead to many deaths and cases of severe brain damage that could have been avoided. We have a joint responsibility towards each other to ensure we get vaccinated because herd immunity is important. Measles is highly contagious, and to prevent the occurrence of measles epidemics, vaccinating about 95 percent of the population is necessary. Annual Influenza Jabs are not Needed People all over the world, particularly the elderly, are being nudged by the authorities to get an annual vaccination against influenza, but it is not at all obvious that this is a good idea. In fact, there are several reasons to be skeptical. First, the preventive effect is small. Twenty-nine people would need to be vaccinated to avoid one case of influenza-like illness and 71 people to avoid one case of influenza, and the vaccination does not reduce hospital admissions or days off work. Second, as the virus mutates quite rapidly, the effect obtained by vaccination will likely be smaller than in the randomized trials. Third, the vaccine has negative effects on the immune system. Canadian researchers showed in four different studies that people who received a seasonal influenza vaccine in 2008 had an increased risk of getting infected with another strain in 2009. Fourth, all vaccines cause harms, which can potentially be serious. Pandemrix, one of the influenza vaccines used during the 2009-2010 pandemic, caused narcolepsy in children and adolescents with a certain tissue type. Up to several years after vaccination of children and adolescents, people may suddenly start falling asleep while engaging in their normal activities, and there is no cure. Fifth, we should always consider the likelihood of getting infected without vaccination. Influenza pandemics are uncommon and rarely involve large portions of the population. In any given year, the likelihood of acquiring influenza if unvaccinated is therefore very small. I never had an influenza vaccination, and my wife, a professor in clinical microbiology, never had one, and together, we have perhaps had influenza twice for 135 years. But we don’t know. When people say they have influenza, it usually just means an influenza-like illness of which there are many, which vaccination does not protect against. Some fundamentalists, particularly in the United States and Australia, have mandated influenza vaccination of healthcare workers to protect patients. This violation of informed consent is deeply troubling and unethical. Moreover, a large review about vaccination of healthcare workers caring for elderly people did not find an effect on laboratory-proven influenza, lower respiratory tract infection, hospitalisation, death due to lower respiratory tract illness, or all-cause mortality. A researcher mentioned that, “to focus exclusively on the risk posed by unvaccinated workers – treating them as outcasts or, worse, terminating their employment – while overlooking the risk posed by vaccinated workers, potentially jeopardizes patients.” Indeed. Vaccination may provide staff with a false sense of security that might reduce their level of handwashing and potentially increase, rather than decrease, the risk of infecting patients. HPV Vaccines: Not a Simple Issue When the HPV vaccines were suspected of causing serious neurological harms – postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS), complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS), and chronic fatigue syndrome – the European Drug Agency cleared the vaccines. However, they did not investigate the issues themselves but let the manufacturers do it for them. My research group examined the clinical study reports submitted to the European Medicines Agency and found a significant increase in serious neurological harms. This was surprising because almost everyone in the control groups had been treated with a hepatitis vaccine or a strongly immunogenic adjuvant, which might also cause harms, making it difficult to detect the harms of the HPV vaccines. The Cochrane review of the HPV vaccines was incomplete and ignored important evidence of bias. The authors overlooked several adverse events and failed to mention that some of the included trials did not report serious adverse events for the whole trial period. For example, three Gardasil trials with a total of 21,441 girls or women with up to four years follow-up only reported serious adverse events occurring within 14 days post-vaccination even though it takes years in many patients before serious neurological harms get diagnosed. The Cochrane authors found more deaths in the HPV vaccine groups than in the comparator groups, and the death rate was significantly increased in women above age 25, risk ratio 2.36 (95 percent confidence interval 1.10 to 5.03). They considered this a chance occurrence since there was no pattern in the causes of death or in the time between vaccine administration and death. However, deaths are often miscoded. For example, traumatic head injury and drowning in a bathtub have been described, and this could have been caused by a syncope or near syncope, which is a recognized vaccine harm that can occur at any time. The serious neurological harms seem to be caused by an autoimmune reaction. The drug companies, EMA and Cochrane called the trials placebo-controlled, which they weren’t. I find it shocking that vaccines are not tested against placebo or no treatment because this makes it impossible to ever know with certainty what the rare but serious harms are. There is no good reason why vaccines – which are preventative drugs – are not tested in the same rigorous way as other drugs. EMA declared that the adjuvants used in the vaccines to boost the immune response are safe, but the five references provided in support of this view were either non-accessible or irrelevant. Furthermore, nothing is safe if it is active. GlaxoSmithKline has stated that its aluminum-based comparator might cause harms, and the clinical study reports show that this is also the case for Merck’s adjuvant. The decision-making is not straightforward. The official propaganda has made women believe that cervical cancer is a major threat to their lives, but this cancer only contributes 0.5 percent of all deaths. Thus, very few women can benefit from the HPV vaccines, and since they do not protect against all HPV types, regular screening is still recommended even for women who are vaccinated. As the precursors to cancer are very slow-growing, women can avoid getting cervical cancer if they go to screening. This is more effective than getting vaccinated, but it comes with a price, e.g. conization for cancer precursors increases the risk of preterm birth. COVID-19 Vaccines: A Mess The story of the COVID-19 vaccines is officially touted as one of success but what stands out is a story of massive deceit and lack of scientific evidence behind many of the recommendations. The randomized trials that led to emergency approval of the vaccines showed that only one of 50 severe cases of COVID-19 occurred in the vaccine groups. This makes it likely that the vaccines have saved lives, and meta-analyses of the trials showed that the adenovirus vector vaccines, but not the mRNA vaccines, decreased total mortality significantly. The hype has been extreme, however. Among those that have claimed 100 percent efficacy of the vaccines are the FDA, US presidential advisor Anthony Fauci, the Australian government, Science Magazine, Reuters, CNN, US National Public Radio, The Hill, Sky News, Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Johnson & Johnson. The efficacy is closer to 50 percent and many people, including me, have become infected despite having received two or more doses of the vaccine. Officials, including US President Joe Biden, once claimed that the vaccines were 100 percent protective against transmission to other people, but now it is widely acknowledged that there is no evidence that the vaccines can prevent transmission. The information on the website of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is particularly misleading. The CDC uses industry jargon when claiming that the vaccines are “safe and effective.” It states that “Adults and children may have some side effects from a COVID-19 vaccine, including pain, redness or swelling at the injection site, tiredness, headache, muscle pain, chills, fever, and nausea. These side effects typically resolve after a few days.  Serious side effects are rare but may occur.” The link to serious side effects does not lead to any mention of what those are. But we know that the vaccines kill some people, e.g. because they can cause myocarditis, most commonly in young males, and thromboses. The CDC recommends “everyone ages 6 months and older get an updated COVID-19 vaccine to protect against serious illness.” However, children tolerate the infection very well and it is likely harmful to vaccine children against COVID-19. Moreover, boosters may be harmful at any age but this is not popular information either. Facebook censored research and an interview with top vaccine researcher Professor Christine Stabell Benn even though the European Medicines Agency was also worried that COVID-19 vaccine boosters might be “overloading people’s immune systems and leading to fatigue.” Facebook also censored research that showed that the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines could weaken the immune response and make cells of the immune system “lazy” when it comes to fighting off viral and bacterial infections. Facebook called this research “false information.” The Cochrane Collaboration, which has the logo “Trusted information,” did not provide trusted information. The Cochrane authors used industry jargon in the title of their review, “Efficacy and safety of COVID‐19 vaccines,” even though I convinced Cochrane many years ago that we should talk about benefits and harms of the interventions we study, in agreement with the CONSORT guidelines for good reporting of harms in trials, which I coauthored in 2004. The Cochrane authors concluded that there is little or no difference in serious adverse events compared to placebo whereas Peter Doshi and colleagues who reanalysed the pivotal mRNA trials found that one additional serious adverse event occurred for every 800 people vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine. Their article, published four months before the Cochrane review, was not cited in it. When I studied the pivotal randomised trials, which were published in the New England Journal of Medicine and in the Lancet, I found that essential data on serious and severe harms were missing (see also my freely available book, The Chinese virus: killed millions and scientific freedom). Doshi et al.’s criticism of the Cochrane review, which is published within the review itself, is so substantial that it is fair to call the Cochrane review a politically expedient garbage in, garbage out exercise. There can be no doubt that the COVID-19 vaccines are much overused and partly to the wrong people. Now that most of us have had the infection, recommending booster after booster seems to be a particularly bad idea. Childhood Vaccines The childhood vaccination programs differ a lot from country to country. In the US, 17 vaccines are recommended, in Denmark only 10. Since vaccinations can weaken the immune system and since some non-live vaccines increase total mortality, it is reasonable to ask if the many vaccinations in the US could result in net harm. It is very important to study this possibility, but I am only aware of two researchers who have done it. They did several studies and found that those nations that require more vaccines for their infants have higher infant mortality, neonatal mortality, and under age five mortality. I find this an alarm signal that should lead to other studies as a matter of urgency. Censorship Censorship is detrimental for scientific debate and scientific advances, and it is harmful for the patients. But for vaccines, it is all over the place. Peter Aaby, one of the world’s top vaccine researchers, lectured about vaccines at the opening symposium for my Institute for Scientific Freedom in March 2019. In early November 2021, YouTube removed the video of his lecture. Everything he said was correct and important for people who want to understand what vaccines do. We appealed this outrageous act of censorship, but to no avail, and I therefore uploaded his lecture on my own website. In February 2022, a US lawyer wrote a 3-page letter to Susan Wojcicki, Chief Operating Officer, Legal Support, YouTube, asking her to restore Professor Aaby’s video about the beneficial and harmful effects of vaccines so that a healthy conversation surrounding medical science could continue. The lawyer received an automated message saying that the video had violated YouTube’s Community Guidelines, adding that “If you think a Community Guidelines strike was applied to your account in error, you can appeal it.” The lawyer appealed and received no reply. In July 2022, Christine Stabel Benn uploaded a videocast with Peter Aaby on YouTube about his research in Africa, which mainly addressed his discovery of the beneficial non-specific effects of measles vaccines. But Aaby also mentioned his interactions with the WHO related to the introduction of a high-titre measles vaccine, which he and his colleagues’ studies had shown increased mortality in girls. Initially, the WHO did not react, but when American colleagues confirmed Aaby’s findings in Haiti, the high-titre vaccine was withdrawn. It has been estimated that this vaccine would have cost around 0.5 million lives per year in Africa alone. It is an important lesson that a highly beneficial vaccine that has saved millions of lives can kill millions if used in too high doses. But YouTube quickly removed the videocast due to “inappropriate content.” Censorship kills. It is as simple as that. In September 2022, I was interviewed by enGrama in Spain for an hour about organised crime in psychiatry and the drug industry. I spoke about COVID-19 for 5 minutes, which made YouTube instantly eliminate the whole interview. This was utterly ridiculous. What I said was true, but YouTube even refused to allow the interviewers to download their own video. Later, they succeeded to reproduce it via the YouTube Studio and it is now up again, but without the forbidden 5 minutes. I have described verbatim what they were about. I was convinced – and still am – that the pandemic was caused by a laboratory leak in Wuhan and that the virus was manufactured there; that repeated vaccinations could weaken the immune response; and that the vaccines can cause serious harm, even death. All of which is considered taboo by social media. In September 2023, I launched an evidence-based podcast channel, Broken Medical Science, in collaboration with documentary filmmaker Janus Bang. To avoid censorship, we have our own server but also publish the episodes on social media. I interviewed Professor Martin Kulldorff, one of the authors of the Great Barrington Declaration, about “The harmful effects of lockdowns, facemask mandates, censorship, and scientific dishonesty,” and Christine Stabell Benn about “Vaccines, a complicated area. Some decrease total mortality, some increase it, and COVID-19 vaccines are overused.” Within 7 minutes after we uploaded these episodes on YouTube, they got this label: “COVID-19 vaccine. Learn about vaccine progress from the WHO.” But some of the WHO’s information was questionable, which we addressed in our newsletter: What are the benefits of getting vaccinated against COVID-19? One should always ask what the benefits and harms are, of any intervention. The vaccines have killed some people because of myocarditis and thromboses. Getting vaccinated could save your life. COVID-19 vaccines have saved millions of lives. What is the evidence for this? The vaccines are not particularly effective because the virus mutates. Consider continuing to practice protective and preventive behaviours such as keeping a distance, wearing a mask in crowded and poorly ventilated spaces. The randomized trials have not found any effect of face masks. Even if you have had COVID-19, the WHO still recommends that you get vaccinated after infection because vaccination enhances your protection against severe outcomes of future COVID-19 infection, and you may be protected for longer. Furthermore, hybrid immunity resulting from vaccine and infection may provide superior protection against existing variants of concern. This has not been documented, and many researchers doubt that it is correct. To ensure optimal protection, it is important to receive COVID-19 vaccine doses and boosters recommended to you by your health authority. It has not been documented that boosters are beneficial, and the European Medicines Agency has warned that boosters may be harmful, as they may weaken the immune system. In both cases, within a couple of hours, YouTube removed the link to the WHO, with no explanation. We speculate that perhaps YouTube is worried about their reputation. I had interviewed two of the most knowledgeable people in the world about vaccines who, to some extent, contradicted the WHO’s recommendations, based on solid science. It is time to change the paradigm about vaccines, and to study them more thoroughly – and their combinations – before they are possibly allowed onto the market. A Final Word about Censorship My deputy director, PhD Maryanne Demasi, and I have been unable to publish our systematic review of serious harms of the COVID-19 vaccines in a medical journal. This is not because I don’t know how to do research and publish it in good journals. I have published over 100 papers in “the big five” (BMJ, Lancet, JAMA, Annals of Internal Medicine and New England Journal of Medicine) and my scientific works have been cited over 190,000 times. Published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License For reprints, please set the canonical link back to the original Brownstone Institute Article and Author. Dr. Peter Gøtzsche co-founded the Cochrane Collaboration, once considered the world’s preeminent independent medical research organization. In 2010 Gøtzsche was named Professor of Clinical Research Design and Analysis at the University of Copenhagen. Gøtzsche has published more than 97 papers in the “big five” medical journals (JAMA, Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine, British Medical Journal, and Annals of Internal Medicine). Gøtzsche has also authored books on medical issues including Deadly Medicines and Organized Crime. Following many years of being an outspoken critic of the corruption of science by pharmaceutical companies, Gøtzsche’s membership on the governing board of Cochrane was terminated by its Board of Trustees in September, 2018. Four board resigned in protest. https://brownstone.org/articles/the-immune-system-and-vaccines-are-complicated/
    BROWNSTONE.ORG
    The Immune System and Vaccines are Complicated ⋆ Brownstone Institute
    Vaccines are a complicated area, which is because the immune system is immensely complicated. Targeted vaccines have ancillary effects, and it is not possible to predict what they are.
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  • Why So Many Countries Followed China’s Lockdown Example
    Ron Brown
    A novel coronavirus that was 10 times deadlier than the flu had gripped the world in 2019. Without a compass to navigate the Covid-19 pandemic, all lessons learned from previous viral pandemics were thrown out the window. The World Health Organization was adamant, “This is not the flu.” Tony Fauci terrified the US House of Representatives with forecasts of disaster. Global populations were defenseless without a vaccine for the novel coronavirus that no one had ever seen before. The only viable defense at the time was to shut down the world.

    China took the lead in lockdowns. Media exported from China showed people dropping dead in the streets. Caskets were piling up. Doors to buildings were sealed to lock in tenants. Throughout the panic, all reasonable alternative assessments of risks from the viral outbreak were ignored, censored, or rejected.

    Nevertheless, I wondered whether a video of a person falling down in the street was really representative of the entire population. Were caskets piling up largely due to families fearing to claim them because of contamination with the virus? I noticed that the front doors to my local mall in Ontario, Canada had also been sealed, just like in China apartment buildings, but this was only to control access through a single entrance to the building, not to seal in customers.

    My first clue that the emergency response to the outbreak of the coronavirus didn’t seem to make sense was when I heard Fauci tell television audiences that if our response seems to be overreacting, then we are probably doing the right thing. What? Since when is overreacting ever the right thing to do? Do generals win wars by overreacting?

    I looked at the numbers that Fauci had presented to the US House of Representatives concerning case and infection fatalities of the coronavirus. They were backwards! His 10-times deadlier prediction was simply a made-up number! This was in March 2020. By May 2020 it was obvious that people were NOT dying at the inflated rate Fauci had predicted.

    I published a paper on Fauci’s coronavirus mortality overestimations: Public Health Lessons Learned From Biases in Coronavirus Mortality Overestimation. But when I mentioned all this to my friends, they responded that the lower than predicted deaths just proved the lockdowns were working. Fauci was off the hook. Back to China.

    WHO/China Joint Mission on Covid-19

    The answer to why countries followed China’s lockdowns is simple. They were told to do so by the World Health Organization (WHO). Why did the WHO tell them to do that? You might want to ask Dr. Bruce Aylward, the Director of the WHO/China Joint Mission on Covid-19 investigating the coronavirus outbreak.

    Aylward noticed a precipitous drop in novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) in China during February 2020. This was before China adopted WHO’s name of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Upon seeing China’s surveillance data, Aylward announced the spectacular findings to the world and told the world to do what China has done and lock down. But he appeared to make a fundamental epidemiological error by wrongly assuming that the association of China’s lockdowns with lower deaths proved the lockdowns were working (just like my friends had told me).

    Soon after in March 2020, China published its latest case definitions for NCP (Covid-19). In a nutshell, the definitions showed that no one could be declared to have died of the disease unless they had viral pneumonia (a severe acute respiratory illness), and only if no other virus normally associated with viral pneumonia was present, except SARS-CoV-2.

    Coinfections with the coronavirus were not acceptable criteria, and what should have been a broad surveillance case definition with high sensitivity to monitor the spread of the virus within the population narrowed down considerably into an overly specific diagnostic case definition. That pretty much sealed the deal to declare Covid-19 deaths in only single digits for many months during the pandemic throughout China. This super-low outcome impressed Dr. Bruce Aylward enough in February 2020 to implore the world to lock down. Did we ever!

    In the meantime, other countries used case and death definitions that went to the opposite extreme of China’s narrow diagnostic definitions, disseminating overinflated surveillance numbers without adjusting the numbers to remove bias. Even Fauci eventually admitted that reported cases and deaths counted WITH the coronavirus are much higher than cases and deaths counted FROM the coronavirus. Ironically, the WHO had previously published material on the correct use and interpretation of surveillance and diagnostic definitions in infectious disease outbreaks. Aylward didn’t appear to get the memo.

    There is more to the story. Was this even really a novel coronavirus, or just a novel genetic sequence of the coronavirus showing greater detail than previously available? China supposedly received updated genetic sequencing technology in late 2019. They had abandoned surveillance of SARS in 2003 for lack of technology.

    Now they were back in business again by the end of 2019. The team of virologists that reported the genetic sequence of the virus in Wuhan noted that it would be necessary to investigate the epidemiological evidence to guide infection control responses. Who has time for that? Shut it down!

    If the novel coronavirus isn’t really so novel, this would explain why the lockdowns didn’t work. We had already known that lockdowns don’t work in other viral pandemics. Even China eventually gave up its Zero Covid Policy after it was obvious that lockdowns weren’t working. My friends owe me some explanations to justify their lockdown views. Maybe Fauci isn’t off the hook after all.

    For more information on biases in Covid-19 case and death definitions, see my peer-reviewed article with cited references: Biases in COVID-19 Case and Death Definitions: Potential Causes and Consequences.

    Published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
    For reprints, please set the canonical link back to the original Brownstone Institute Article and Author.

    Your financial backing of Brownstone Institute goes to support writers, lawyers, scientists, economists, and other people of courage who have been professionally purged and displaced during the upheaval of our times. You can help get the truth out through their ongoing work.


    https://brownstone.org/articles/why-so-many-countries-followed-chinas-lockdown-example/
    Why So Many Countries Followed China’s Lockdown Example Ron Brown A novel coronavirus that was 10 times deadlier than the flu had gripped the world in 2019. Without a compass to navigate the Covid-19 pandemic, all lessons learned from previous viral pandemics were thrown out the window. The World Health Organization was adamant, “This is not the flu.” Tony Fauci terrified the US House of Representatives with forecasts of disaster. Global populations were defenseless without a vaccine for the novel coronavirus that no one had ever seen before. The only viable defense at the time was to shut down the world. China took the lead in lockdowns. Media exported from China showed people dropping dead in the streets. Caskets were piling up. Doors to buildings were sealed to lock in tenants. Throughout the panic, all reasonable alternative assessments of risks from the viral outbreak were ignored, censored, or rejected. Nevertheless, I wondered whether a video of a person falling down in the street was really representative of the entire population. Were caskets piling up largely due to families fearing to claim them because of contamination with the virus? I noticed that the front doors to my local mall in Ontario, Canada had also been sealed, just like in China apartment buildings, but this was only to control access through a single entrance to the building, not to seal in customers. My first clue that the emergency response to the outbreak of the coronavirus didn’t seem to make sense was when I heard Fauci tell television audiences that if our response seems to be overreacting, then we are probably doing the right thing. What? Since when is overreacting ever the right thing to do? Do generals win wars by overreacting? I looked at the numbers that Fauci had presented to the US House of Representatives concerning case and infection fatalities of the coronavirus. They were backwards! His 10-times deadlier prediction was simply a made-up number! This was in March 2020. By May 2020 it was obvious that people were NOT dying at the inflated rate Fauci had predicted. I published a paper on Fauci’s coronavirus mortality overestimations: Public Health Lessons Learned From Biases in Coronavirus Mortality Overestimation. But when I mentioned all this to my friends, they responded that the lower than predicted deaths just proved the lockdowns were working. Fauci was off the hook. Back to China. WHO/China Joint Mission on Covid-19 The answer to why countries followed China’s lockdowns is simple. They were told to do so by the World Health Organization (WHO). Why did the WHO tell them to do that? You might want to ask Dr. Bruce Aylward, the Director of the WHO/China Joint Mission on Covid-19 investigating the coronavirus outbreak. Aylward noticed a precipitous drop in novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) in China during February 2020. This was before China adopted WHO’s name of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Upon seeing China’s surveillance data, Aylward announced the spectacular findings to the world and told the world to do what China has done and lock down. But he appeared to make a fundamental epidemiological error by wrongly assuming that the association of China’s lockdowns with lower deaths proved the lockdowns were working (just like my friends had told me). Soon after in March 2020, China published its latest case definitions for NCP (Covid-19). In a nutshell, the definitions showed that no one could be declared to have died of the disease unless they had viral pneumonia (a severe acute respiratory illness), and only if no other virus normally associated with viral pneumonia was present, except SARS-CoV-2. Coinfections with the coronavirus were not acceptable criteria, and what should have been a broad surveillance case definition with high sensitivity to monitor the spread of the virus within the population narrowed down considerably into an overly specific diagnostic case definition. That pretty much sealed the deal to declare Covid-19 deaths in only single digits for many months during the pandemic throughout China. This super-low outcome impressed Dr. Bruce Aylward enough in February 2020 to implore the world to lock down. Did we ever! In the meantime, other countries used case and death definitions that went to the opposite extreme of China’s narrow diagnostic definitions, disseminating overinflated surveillance numbers without adjusting the numbers to remove bias. Even Fauci eventually admitted that reported cases and deaths counted WITH the coronavirus are much higher than cases and deaths counted FROM the coronavirus. Ironically, the WHO had previously published material on the correct use and interpretation of surveillance and diagnostic definitions in infectious disease outbreaks. Aylward didn’t appear to get the memo. There is more to the story. Was this even really a novel coronavirus, or just a novel genetic sequence of the coronavirus showing greater detail than previously available? China supposedly received updated genetic sequencing technology in late 2019. They had abandoned surveillance of SARS in 2003 for lack of technology. Now they were back in business again by the end of 2019. The team of virologists that reported the genetic sequence of the virus in Wuhan noted that it would be necessary to investigate the epidemiological evidence to guide infection control responses. Who has time for that? Shut it down! If the novel coronavirus isn’t really so novel, this would explain why the lockdowns didn’t work. We had already known that lockdowns don’t work in other viral pandemics. Even China eventually gave up its Zero Covid Policy after it was obvious that lockdowns weren’t working. My friends owe me some explanations to justify their lockdown views. Maybe Fauci isn’t off the hook after all. For more information on biases in Covid-19 case and death definitions, see my peer-reviewed article with cited references: Biases in COVID-19 Case and Death Definitions: Potential Causes and Consequences. Published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License For reprints, please set the canonical link back to the original Brownstone Institute Article and Author. Your financial backing of Brownstone Institute goes to support writers, lawyers, scientists, economists, and other people of courage who have been professionally purged and displaced during the upheaval of our times. You can help get the truth out through their ongoing work. https://brownstone.org/articles/why-so-many-countries-followed-chinas-lockdown-example/
    BROWNSTONE.ORG
    Why So Many Countries Followed China’s Lockdown Example ⋆ Brownstone Institute
    If the novel coronavirus isn’t really so novel, this would explain why the lockdowns didn’t work. We had already known that lockdowns don’t work in other viral pandemics. Even China eventually gave up its Zero Covid Policy after it was obvious that lockdowns weren’t working.
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  • Crack into Health: The Egg-ceptional Power of Nutrient-Packed Goodness in Your Healthy Diet
    In the pursuit of a wholesome and nourishing diet, one food item stands out as a true powerhouse – the humble egg. Packed with essential nutrients, eggs play a vital role in promoting overall health. In this article, we'll delve into the myriad benefits of incorporating eggs into your daily diet and explore the nutrient-rich goodness that makes them a stellar choice for those committed to well-rounded wellness.

    The Nutrient Punch:

    Eggs are a nutritional marvel, delivering a perfect blend of high-quality proteins, vitamins, and minerals. One large egg contains about 6 grams of protein, making it an excellent source for those looking to build and repair body tissues. What's more, eggs are rich in essential amino acids, the building blocks of protein crucial for optimal health.

    But the nutritional perks of eggs don't stop there. Eggs are a goldmine of vitamins, with significant amounts of vitamin A, vitamin B12, and vitamin D. Vitamin A is essential for maintaining healthy skin and vision, while vitamin B12 is crucial for nerve function and the formation of red blood cells. Vitamin D, often dubbed the "sunshine vitamin," plays a pivotal role in bone health and immune system function.

    Minerals like iron, phosphorus, and selenium further contribute to the nutritional value of eggs. Iron is essential for preventing anemia, phosphorus supports bone health, and selenium acts as a powerful antioxidant, protecting cells from damage.

    The Perfect Egg for a Healthy Diet:

    Not all eggs are created equal, and opting for the right kind can amplify the health benefits. Free-range or pasture-raised eggs, where hens roam outdoors and have a more varied diet, are often considered superior in nutritional content compared to conventionally produced eggs. These eggs typically have higher levels of omega-3 fatty acids, which are beneficial for heart health.

    Egg-citing Ways to Include Eggs in Your Diet:

    Now that we've established the nutritional prowess of eggs, let's explore some creative and delicious ways to incorporate them into your daily meals:

    Breakfast Brilliance: Rise and Shine with Eggs

    Start your day with a protein-packed breakfast by enjoying eggs in various forms – whether it's a classic omelet loaded with colorful vegetables or a simple poached egg served over whole-grain toast.

    Salads with a Sunny Side: Egg-quisite Greens

    Elevate your salads by adding a boiled or poached egg on top. The creamy yolk serves as a delectable dressing, adding both flavor and nutritional value to your greens.

    Egg-straordinary Snacking: Hard-Boiled Delights

    Hard-boiled eggs make for convenient and portable snacks. Simply sprinkle a pinch of salt and pepper for a satisfying midday pick-me-up that won't compromise your health goals.

    Dinner Delights: Eggs in Every Bite

    Incorporate eggs into your dinner routine with dishes like vegetable stir-fry topped with a fried egg or a protein-rich frittata filled with your favorite veggies.

    Conclusion:

    In conclusion, the egg is a nutritional powerhouse that deserves its place in a balanced and healthy diet. Packed with essential nutrients, vitamins, and minerals, eggs contribute to overall well-being and can be enjoyed in a variety of delicious ways. So, crack into the goodness of eggs and embrace a healthier, more vibrant lifestyle today. Your body will thank you for it!

    CLICK HERE-- https://subratajajabar.systeme.io/customketo



    Crack into Health: The Egg-ceptional Power of Nutrient-Packed Goodness in Your Healthy Diet In the pursuit of a wholesome and nourishing diet, one food item stands out as a true powerhouse – the humble egg. Packed with essential nutrients, eggs play a vital role in promoting overall health. In this article, we'll delve into the myriad benefits of incorporating eggs into your daily diet and explore the nutrient-rich goodness that makes them a stellar choice for those committed to well-rounded wellness. The Nutrient Punch: Eggs are a nutritional marvel, delivering a perfect blend of high-quality proteins, vitamins, and minerals. One large egg contains about 6 grams of protein, making it an excellent source for those looking to build and repair body tissues. What's more, eggs are rich in essential amino acids, the building blocks of protein crucial for optimal health. But the nutritional perks of eggs don't stop there. Eggs are a goldmine of vitamins, with significant amounts of vitamin A, vitamin B12, and vitamin D. Vitamin A is essential for maintaining healthy skin and vision, while vitamin B12 is crucial for nerve function and the formation of red blood cells. Vitamin D, often dubbed the "sunshine vitamin," plays a pivotal role in bone health and immune system function. Minerals like iron, phosphorus, and selenium further contribute to the nutritional value of eggs. Iron is essential for preventing anemia, phosphorus supports bone health, and selenium acts as a powerful antioxidant, protecting cells from damage. The Perfect Egg for a Healthy Diet: Not all eggs are created equal, and opting for the right kind can amplify the health benefits. Free-range or pasture-raised eggs, where hens roam outdoors and have a more varied diet, are often considered superior in nutritional content compared to conventionally produced eggs. These eggs typically have higher levels of omega-3 fatty acids, which are beneficial for heart health. Egg-citing Ways to Include Eggs in Your Diet: Now that we've established the nutritional prowess of eggs, let's explore some creative and delicious ways to incorporate them into your daily meals: Breakfast Brilliance: Rise and Shine with Eggs Start your day with a protein-packed breakfast by enjoying eggs in various forms – whether it's a classic omelet loaded with colorful vegetables or a simple poached egg served over whole-grain toast. Salads with a Sunny Side: Egg-quisite Greens Elevate your salads by adding a boiled or poached egg on top. The creamy yolk serves as a delectable dressing, adding both flavor and nutritional value to your greens. Egg-straordinary Snacking: Hard-Boiled Delights Hard-boiled eggs make for convenient and portable snacks. Simply sprinkle a pinch of salt and pepper for a satisfying midday pick-me-up that won't compromise your health goals. Dinner Delights: Eggs in Every Bite Incorporate eggs into your dinner routine with dishes like vegetable stir-fry topped with a fried egg or a protein-rich frittata filled with your favorite veggies. Conclusion: In conclusion, the egg is a nutritional powerhouse that deserves its place in a balanced and healthy diet. Packed with essential nutrients, vitamins, and minerals, eggs contribute to overall well-being and can be enjoyed in a variety of delicious ways. So, crack into the goodness of eggs and embrace a healthier, more vibrant lifestyle today. Your body will thank you for it! CLICK HERE-- https://subratajajabar.systeme.io/customketo
    0 Comments 0 Shares 2641 Views
  • How do I make my content professional in writing (content writing)?

    [Dedicated link to one of the professional writers]
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    How do I make my content professional in writing (content writing)? 👉 [Dedicated link to one of the professional writers] here:https://bit.ly/zgoundi2 👉 [A dedicated link to choose the writer and service yourself] here:https://bit.ly/zgoundi3 Invest in content that shines and engages. Choose quality and professionalism with us! ✨📝 --- #ContentWriting #ContentCreation #Copywriting #CreativeContent #ContentMarketing #WritingCommunity #SEOContent #DigitalContent #FreelanceWriter #WebContent #Blogging #ContentStrategy #QualityContent #Wordsmith #SocialMediaContent #EngagingContent #BloggersLife #ArticleWriting #Storytelling #ContentCreators
    0 Comments 0 Shares 2055 Views 0
  • **Unlock the Best Content Writing Services on Fiverr!**

    **Tailored Content Services Just for You!**

    Are you in search of outstanding and engaging content for your website or blog? Do you want to make your content stand out with quality and resonate with your audience? Look no further – we've got the solution to achieve your goal!

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    Invest in content that shines and engages. Choose quality and professionalism with us!

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    🚀 **Unlock the Best Content Writing Services on Fiverr!** 📝 **Tailored Content Services Just for You!** 🌐 Are you in search of outstanding and engaging content for your website or blog? Do you want to make your content stand out with quality and resonate with your audience? Look no further – we've got the solution to achieve your goal! ✨ **Why Choose Our Fiverr Services?** 1. **Exceptional Quality:** We provide precision-written, high-quality content that meets audience expectations. 2. **Complete Customization:** Understanding the importance of unique content, we offer services tailored to your specific needs. 3. **On-Time Delivery:** We commit to both quality and timelines to ensure customer satisfaction. 4. **Competitive Pricing:** Our services are available at reasonable prices, catering to your budget. 📌 **Examples of Our Services:** - Crafting creative and analytical articles. - Developing effective marketing content. - Writing blog posts to attract more readers. - Creating engaging and effective social media content. 🌈 **Check Out Our Fiverr Services Today!** 👉 [Dedicated link to one of the professional writers] here:https://bit.ly/zgoundi2 👉 [A dedicated link to choose the writer and service yourself] here:https://bit.ly/zgoundi3 Invest in content that shines and engages. Choose quality and professionalism with us! ✨📝 --- #ContentWriting #ContentCreation #Copywriting #CreativeContent #ContentMarketing #WritingCommunity #SEOContent #DigitalContent #FreelanceWriter #WebContent #Blogging #ContentStrategy #QualityContent #Wordsmith #SocialMediaContent #EngagingContent #BloggersLife #ArticleWriting #Storytelling #ContentCreators
    0 Comments 0 Shares 2491 Views
  • Is the proliferation of poor-quality products, services and talent part of a creative destruction process under the New Normal – leading to universal #surveillance?
    Is the proliferation of poor-quality products, services and talent part of a creative destruction process under the New Normal – leading to universal #surveillance?
    WWW.ACTIVISTPOST.COM
    Broken by Design: Why The Elites Want Everything and Everyone to Have an Expiration Date - Activist Post
    “They don’t make them like they used to anymore” is an ancient lament that has resonated through the ages in various forms.
    Like
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  • PEOPLE ARE EITHER GOOD OR *EVIL
    *Terms and Conditions may apply

    Sage Hana
    There is only good and evil.

    Never shall the two cross paths.

    People are good!

    Hooomans good.

    That Evil happens and keeps happening is due to one thing:

    Dolts Botching Shit.

    Mistakes were made.

    Hooomans fallible.

    As such, if you see Evil being committed, consider whether it is a Good Person, (usually someone that I know, who I like) making an honest mistake…or…meeebbeeee following the YouTube “Community Standards” of RightThink.


    “You Americans need to get over your politics and get the shots…”
    Okay, y’all. I’m trying to make a point here.

    About how all politics of Evil is local and if you like a guy or gal, they are making mistakes, and they will do better, see. And that is a redemption arc and we lap that shit up like dogs to vomit.

    I watched this go down in real time.

    I was watching closely the Goodies all making the same mistake.

    THEY WERE ALL MAKING THE SAME MISTAKE.

    To satisfy the instincts, probably.

    Because the SYSTEM was stronger than the INDIVIDUAL GOODINESS.

    Jimmy Dore said on this livestream that his Google “liasion”, aka MINDER, was a good dude, and the problems were up the chain at Google. His guy was…GOOD.

    February 17, 2023


    Turbo Aging is real. Look how young Jimmy looks here.
    November 3, 2023


    February 17, 2022

    Jimmy Dore is right now doing a live stream with guest Jackson Hinkle.

    Jimmy is wrestling with his Shadow Self. I’m watching this bout play out.

    It is a true Battle Royale.

    Jimmy has said many times, purportedly in jest, that he would sell out if they would pay him enough.

    He is busy complaining again about how YouTube “context-checked” him on “reducing transmission and infection” and force(s) him to say that the jabs “reduce transmission”.

    Note that YouTube’s science is directly contradictory to what Dr. Byram Bridle is pointing out in his latest interview with Steve Kirsch.

    Jimmy also reveals that he has a “nice gentleman” liaison from YouTube who helps him stay on the straight and narrow. Jimmy faults the “higher ups” at YouTube.

    Good to know, Jimmy. Glad that there are nice YouTube liaisons helping you to censor your content.

    What do you think Jimmy Dore makes on his YouTube channel?

    $30-K a month probably? Spitballing…

    Jimmy, are you familiar with the emerging data of the experimental injection negative efficacy?

    You should cover that, Chicago. Want to run that by your YouTube Censor Pal first?


    EVIL SUPERVILLAINS working at the behest of Satan?

    Hardly!

    *edit as this section is not clear. This is my words with a Steve Kirsch post as evidentiary support as to how the loophole works.

    Steve stans for FDA’s Janet Woodcock.

    The Medical Murder Community I don’t think will ever reckon.

    They know they have garbage data. They keep playing along. It must gnaw at them. To keep going and never tearing it down to the foundation. Building on sand and it keeps tumbling over.

    They got rolled. They didn’t ask the right questions (Day Tapes). They got going on some premises and some data and…all the nice people they know also didn’t know that the Cull was On, they just had bosses.

    (It is also entirely possible that I am being a Sweet Summer Child here.)

    And Steve Kirsch is super rich and in communication with “experts” and players.

    https://www.skirsch.com/covid/Backstory.pdf


    So very much like Trump Hero Ballers cannot bear to pin blame on Trump.

    And Blue Pill Covidians cannot bear to pin blame on Anthony Fauci.

    Erryybbody knows somebody and Leave Janet alone.


    They were all goodies.

    All of them.

    Nobody did anything bad.

    Nobody got murdered, which would require intent.

    Or that world (or Bible Story) would be lost to me.


    Look.

    I get it.

    A lot of people were lied to and murdered and maimed.

    Mistakes were made.

    Let’s look forwards.

    Just roll with it.

    The Creative Intelligence identified what makes you tick.

    They gave you a bunch of Superhero movies on top of the Goody Baddy, Giant Loophole Redemption Arc terms and conditions apply.

    They have over a century of Psychological Research into motivating you to buy the Clear Coat on the Plymouth.

    Nobody is going down for murder.

    They were all good.

    Mistakes were made.




    Bill Gates Redemption Arc coming soon.


    https://ko-fi.com/sagehanaproductions64182

    https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sagehanaJ
    PEOPLE ARE EITHER GOOD OR *EVIL *Terms and Conditions may apply Sage Hana There is only good and evil. Never shall the two cross paths. People are good! Hooomans good. That Evil happens and keeps happening is due to one thing: Dolts Botching Shit. Mistakes were made. Hooomans fallible. As such, if you see Evil being committed, consider whether it is a Good Person, (usually someone that I know, who I like) making an honest mistake…or…meeebbeeee following the YouTube “Community Standards” of RightThink. “You Americans need to get over your politics and get the shots…” Okay, y’all. I’m trying to make a point here. About how all politics of Evil is local and if you like a guy or gal, they are making mistakes, and they will do better, see. And that is a redemption arc and we lap that shit up like dogs to vomit. I watched this go down in real time. I was watching closely the Goodies all making the same mistake. THEY WERE ALL MAKING THE SAME MISTAKE. To satisfy the instincts, probably. Because the SYSTEM was stronger than the INDIVIDUAL GOODINESS. Jimmy Dore said on this livestream that his Google “liasion”, aka MINDER, was a good dude, and the problems were up the chain at Google. His guy was…GOOD. February 17, 2023 Turbo Aging is real. Look how young Jimmy looks here. November 3, 2023 February 17, 2022 Jimmy Dore is right now doing a live stream with guest Jackson Hinkle. Jimmy is wrestling with his Shadow Self. I’m watching this bout play out. It is a true Battle Royale. Jimmy has said many times, purportedly in jest, that he would sell out if they would pay him enough. He is busy complaining again about how YouTube “context-checked” him on “reducing transmission and infection” and force(s) him to say that the jabs “reduce transmission”. Note that YouTube’s science is directly contradictory to what Dr. Byram Bridle is pointing out in his latest interview with Steve Kirsch. Jimmy also reveals that he has a “nice gentleman” liaison from YouTube who helps him stay on the straight and narrow. Jimmy faults the “higher ups” at YouTube. Good to know, Jimmy. Glad that there are nice YouTube liaisons helping you to censor your content. What do you think Jimmy Dore makes on his YouTube channel? $30-K a month probably? Spitballing… Jimmy, are you familiar with the emerging data of the experimental injection negative efficacy? You should cover that, Chicago. Want to run that by your YouTube Censor Pal first? EVIL SUPERVILLAINS working at the behest of Satan? Hardly! *edit as this section is not clear. This is my words with a Steve Kirsch post as evidentiary support as to how the loophole works. Steve stans for FDA’s Janet Woodcock. The Medical Murder Community I don’t think will ever reckon. They know they have garbage data. They keep playing along. It must gnaw at them. To keep going and never tearing it down to the foundation. Building on sand and it keeps tumbling over. They got rolled. They didn’t ask the right questions (Day Tapes). They got going on some premises and some data and…all the nice people they know also didn’t know that the Cull was On, they just had bosses. (It is also entirely possible that I am being a Sweet Summer Child here.) And Steve Kirsch is super rich and in communication with “experts” and players. https://www.skirsch.com/covid/Backstory.pdf So very much like Trump Hero Ballers cannot bear to pin blame on Trump. And Blue Pill Covidians cannot bear to pin blame on Anthony Fauci. Erryybbody knows somebody and Leave Janet alone. They were all goodies. All of them. Nobody did anything bad. Nobody got murdered, which would require intent. Or that world (or Bible Story) would be lost to me. Look. I get it. A lot of people were lied to and murdered and maimed. Mistakes were made. Let’s look forwards. Just roll with it. The Creative Intelligence identified what makes you tick. They gave you a bunch of Superhero movies on top of the Goody Baddy, Giant Loophole Redemption Arc terms and conditions apply. They have over a century of Psychological Research into motivating you to buy the Clear Coat on the Plymouth. Nobody is going down for murder. They were all good. Mistakes were made. Bill Gates Redemption Arc coming soon. https://ko-fi.com/sagehanaproductions64182 https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sagehanaJ
    0 Comments 0 Shares 2917 Views
  • The Age of Megathreats
    Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022
    op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images
    NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be.

    Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.”

    Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies.

    Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries.

    Goodbye to All That

    Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII.

    There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb.


    Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini.

    Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More.

    For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15.

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    With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea.

    Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any.

    Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy.

    There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia.

    Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.”

    But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate.

    Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind.

    Hard Choices, Hard Landings

    The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks.

    While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession).

    What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant).

    History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies.

    Sticky Stagflation

    In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral.

    Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction.

    This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth.

    Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc.

    Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade.

    On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable.

    The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods.

    Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise.

    The Worst of All Possible Economies

    When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing.

    Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis.

    While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent.

    The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture.

    Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate.

    With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates.

    How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates.

    For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage.

    The Moment of Truth

    In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one).

    And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters.

    How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust.

    In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix.

    Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse.

    Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.
    The Age of Megathreats Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022 op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be. Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.” Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies. Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries. Goodbye to All That Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII. There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb. Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini. Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More. For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15. Subscribe Now With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea. Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any. Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy. There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia. Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.” But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate. Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind. Hard Choices, Hard Landings The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks. While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession). What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant). History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies. Sticky Stagflation In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral. Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction. This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth. Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc. Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade. On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable. The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods. Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise. The Worst of All Possible Economies When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing. Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis. While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent. The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture. Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate. With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates. How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates. For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage. The Moment of Truth In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one). And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters. How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust. In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix. Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse. Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.
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  • The Age of Megathreats
    Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022
    op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images
    NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be.

    Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.”

    Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies.

    Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries.

    Goodbye to All That

    Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII.

    There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb.


    Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini.

    Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More.

    For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15.

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    With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea.

    Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any.

    Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy.

    There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia.

    Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.”

    But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate.

    Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind.

    Hard Choices, Hard Landings

    The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks.

    While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession).

    What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant).

    History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies.

    Sticky Stagflation

    In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral.

    Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction.

    This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth.

    Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc.

    Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade.

    On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable.

    The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods.

    Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise.

    The Worst of All Possible Economies

    When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing.

    Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis.

    While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent.

    The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture.

    Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate.

    With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates.

    How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates.

    For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage.

    The Moment of Truth

    In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one).

    And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters.

    How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust.

    In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix.

    Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse.

    Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.
    The Age of Megathreats Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022 op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be. Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.” Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies. Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries. Goodbye to All That Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII. There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb. Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini. Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More. For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15. Subscribe Now With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea. Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any. Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy. There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia. Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.” But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate. Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind. Hard Choices, Hard Landings The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks. While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession). What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant). History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies. Sticky Stagflation In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral. Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction. This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth. Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc. Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade. On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable. The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods. Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise. The Worst of All Possible Economies When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing. Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis. While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent. The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture. Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate. With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates. How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates. For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage. The Moment of Truth In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one). And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters. How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust. In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix. Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse. Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.
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