• When Yemen Does It It's Terrorism, When The US Does It It's "The Rules-Based Order"
    Caitlin Johnstone

    Listen to a reading of this article (reading by Tim Foley):



    The Biden administration has officially re-designated Ansarallah — the dominant force in Yemen also known as the Houthis — as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist entity.

    The White House claims the designation is an appropriate response to the group’s attacks on US military vessels and commercial ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, saying those attacks “fit the textbook definition of terrorism.” Ansarallah claims its actions “adhere to the provisions of Article 1 of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide,” since it is only enforcing a blockade geared toward ceasing the ongoing Israeli destruction of Gaza.

    One of the most heinous acts committed by the Trump administration was its designation of Ansarallah as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) and as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGT), both of which imposed sanctions that critics warned would plunge Yemen’s aid-dependent population into even greater levels of starvation than they were already experiencing by restricting the aid that would be allowed in. One of the Biden administration’s only decent foreign policy decisions has been the reversal of that sadistic move, and now that reversal is being partially rolled back, though thankfully only with the SDGT listing and not the more deadly and consequential FTO designation.


    https://twitter.com/Antiwarcom/status/1747693693413581315
    In a new article for Antiwar about this latest development, Dave Decamp explains that as much as the Biden White House goes to great lengths insisting that it’s going to issue exemptions to ensure that its sanctions don’t harm the already struggling Yemeni people, “history has shown that sanctions scare away international companies and banks from doing business with the targeted nations or entities and cause shortages of medicine, food, and other basic goods.” DeCamp also notes that US and British airstrikes on Yemen have already forced some aid groups to suspend services to the country.

    So the US empire is going to be imposing sanctions on a nation that’s still trying to recover from the devastation caused by the US-backed Saudi blockade that contributed to hundreds of thousands of deaths between 2015 and 2022. All in response to the de facto government of that very same country imposing its own blockade with the goal of preventing a genocide.

    That’s right kids: when Yemen sets up a blockade to try and stop an active genocide, that’s terrorism, but when the US empire imposes a blockade to secure its geostrategic interests in the middle east, why that’s just the rules-based international order in action.


    https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1747657391133389107
    It just says so much about how the US empire sees itself that it can impose blockades and starvation sanctions at will upon nations like Yemen, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, Syria and North Korea for refusing to bow to its dictates, but when Yemen imposes a blockade for infinitely more worthy and noble reasons it gets branded an act of terrorism. The managers of the globe-spanning empire loosely centralized around Washington literally believe the world is theirs to rule as they will, and that anyone who opposes its rulings is an outlaw.

    What this shows us is that the “rules-based international order” the US and its allies claim to uphold is not based on rules at all; it’s based on power, which is the ability to control and impose your will on other people. The “rules” apply only to the enemies of the empire because they are not rules at all: they are narratives used to justify efforts to bend the global population to its will.

    We are ruled by murderous tyrants. By nuclear-armed thugs who would rather starve civilians to protect the continuation of an active genocide than allow peace to get a word in edgewise. Our world can never know health as long as these monsters remain in charge.

    _____________

    My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece here are some options where you can toss some money into my tip jar if you want to. Go here to buy paperback editions of my writings from month to month. All my work is free to bootleg and use in any way, shape or form; republish it, translate it, use it on merchandise; whatever you want. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. All works co-authored with my husband Tim Foley.


    Bitcoin donations: 1Ac7PCQXoQoLA9Sh8fhAgiU3PHA2EX5Zm2

    https://open.substack.com/pub/caitlinjohnstone/p/when-yemen-does-it-its-terrorism?r=29hg4d&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
    When Yemen Does It It's Terrorism, When The US Does It It's "The Rules-Based Order" Caitlin Johnstone Listen to a reading of this article (reading by Tim Foley): The Biden administration has officially re-designated Ansarallah — the dominant force in Yemen also known as the Houthis — as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist entity. The White House claims the designation is an appropriate response to the group’s attacks on US military vessels and commercial ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, saying those attacks “fit the textbook definition of terrorism.” Ansarallah claims its actions “adhere to the provisions of Article 1 of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide,” since it is only enforcing a blockade geared toward ceasing the ongoing Israeli destruction of Gaza. One of the most heinous acts committed by the Trump administration was its designation of Ansarallah as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) and as Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGT), both of which imposed sanctions that critics warned would plunge Yemen’s aid-dependent population into even greater levels of starvation than they were already experiencing by restricting the aid that would be allowed in. One of the Biden administration’s only decent foreign policy decisions has been the reversal of that sadistic move, and now that reversal is being partially rolled back, though thankfully only with the SDGT listing and not the more deadly and consequential FTO designation. https://twitter.com/Antiwarcom/status/1747693693413581315 In a new article for Antiwar about this latest development, Dave Decamp explains that as much as the Biden White House goes to great lengths insisting that it’s going to issue exemptions to ensure that its sanctions don’t harm the already struggling Yemeni people, “history has shown that sanctions scare away international companies and banks from doing business with the targeted nations or entities and cause shortages of medicine, food, and other basic goods.” DeCamp also notes that US and British airstrikes on Yemen have already forced some aid groups to suspend services to the country. So the US empire is going to be imposing sanctions on a nation that’s still trying to recover from the devastation caused by the US-backed Saudi blockade that contributed to hundreds of thousands of deaths between 2015 and 2022. All in response to the de facto government of that very same country imposing its own blockade with the goal of preventing a genocide. That’s right kids: when Yemen sets up a blockade to try and stop an active genocide, that’s terrorism, but when the US empire imposes a blockade to secure its geostrategic interests in the middle east, why that’s just the rules-based international order in action. https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1747657391133389107 It just says so much about how the US empire sees itself that it can impose blockades and starvation sanctions at will upon nations like Yemen, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, Syria and North Korea for refusing to bow to its dictates, but when Yemen imposes a blockade for infinitely more worthy and noble reasons it gets branded an act of terrorism. The managers of the globe-spanning empire loosely centralized around Washington literally believe the world is theirs to rule as they will, and that anyone who opposes its rulings is an outlaw. What this shows us is that the “rules-based international order” the US and its allies claim to uphold is not based on rules at all; it’s based on power, which is the ability to control and impose your will on other people. The “rules” apply only to the enemies of the empire because they are not rules at all: they are narratives used to justify efforts to bend the global population to its will. We are ruled by murderous tyrants. By nuclear-armed thugs who would rather starve civilians to protect the continuation of an active genocide than allow peace to get a word in edgewise. Our world can never know health as long as these monsters remain in charge. _____________ My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece here are some options where you can toss some money into my tip jar if you want to. Go here to buy paperback editions of my writings from month to month. All my work is free to bootleg and use in any way, shape or form; republish it, translate it, use it on merchandise; whatever you want. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. All works co-authored with my husband Tim Foley. Bitcoin donations: 1Ac7PCQXoQoLA9Sh8fhAgiU3PHA2EX5Zm2 https://open.substack.com/pub/caitlinjohnstone/p/when-yemen-does-it-its-terrorism?r=29hg4d&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
    OPEN.SUBSTACK.COM
    When Yemen Does It It's Terrorism, When The US Does It It's "The Rules-Based Order"
    Listen to a reading of this article (reading by Tim Foley): The Biden administration has officially re-designated Ansarallah — the dominant force in Yemen also known as the Houthis — as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist entity. The White House
    Like
    1
    0 Comments 0 Shares 4546 Views
  • La inflación interanual de Argentina llegó al 211.4%, superando a la de Venezuela.
    La tasa de inflación interanual de Argentina llegó al 211.4% en diciembre, el nivel más alto desde principios de la década de 1990; la cifra supera la registrada en Venezuela, donde llegó a un estimado de 193% en 2023.
    https://www.proceso.com.mx/internacional/2024/1/11/la-inflacion-interanual-de-argentina-llego-al-2114-superando-la-de-venezuela-321906.html
    La inflación interanual de Argentina llegó al 211.4%, superando a la de Venezuela. La tasa de inflación interanual de Argentina llegó al 211.4% en diciembre, el nivel más alto desde principios de la década de 1990; la cifra supera la registrada en Venezuela, donde llegó a un estimado de 193% en 2023. https://www.proceso.com.mx/internacional/2024/1/11/la-inflacion-interanual-de-argentina-llego-al-2114-superando-la-de-venezuela-321906.html
    WWW.PROCESO.COM.MX
    La inflación interanual de Argentina llegó al 211.4%, superando a la de Venezuela
    La tasa de inflación interanual de Argentina llegó al 211.4% en diciembre, el nivel más alto desde principios de la década de 1990; la cifra supera la registrada en Venezuela, donde llegó a un estimado de 193% en 2023.
    0 Comments 0 Shares 1624 Views


  • To Save Gaza, Invoke the Genocide Convention
    The ICC is a "puppet institution". What's needed is a country to invoke the Genocide Convention at the International Court of Justice. Here's how, with argument, phone numbers, addresses and emails.

    Sam Husseini

    [Addendum: RootsAction and World Beyond War have put out the action alert “It’s Time to Invoke the Genocide Convention”. This full piece has been posted on X/Twitter with thread containing handles for various national leaders who can be petitioned.]

    Some of the greatest successes in recent human history have combined protest movements with strong diplomatic moves.

    In February 1998, the Clinton administration seemed poised to inflict a massive attack on Iraq, but vocal opposition from the US public, especially at a CNN town hall meeting in Ohio, combined by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan going to Iraq, repelled the US government attack.

    The following year, in the Battle of Seattle, combined protests in the streets and delegations from the global south finding their backbone resulted in the World Trade Organization’s plans collapsing. This was a major setback for global corporate interests.

    There is now effectively a global movement, largely based around mass protests, to stop Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in Gaza.

    Several countries, including South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Comoros, Djibouti as well as Colombia and Algeria and Turkey have moved for the International Criminal Court to prosecute Israeli officials.

    The problem is that ICC has been dragging its heels for years on prosecuting Israelis. It has been called a “white man’s court” after only going after Africans, and, after letting Israel off the hook during an earlier assault on Gaza, “a hoax”. Some of these nations have called Israel’s war crimes “genocide”. They should act on their words and invoke the relevant treaty. Other nations that have been especially critical of Israel are Pakistan, Brazil, Chile, Belize, Jordan, Chad, Honduras, Bahrain, Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba.

    The International Court of Justice, also called the World Court, in contrast has ruled against Israel. But so far these rulings have been advisory opinions. It ruled against Israel in a case regarding its wall in 2004. In another case before it, is expected to rule against Israel’s long term policies.

    But what can be done now, Prof. Francis Boyle, who successfully represented the Bosnians before the World Court, argues is to use emergency processes to give more teeth to the World Court. This can be done by invoking the Genocide Convention. This is outlined by Boyle, noted by UN whistleblower Craig Mokhiber, backed by Nobel Peace Prize winner Mairead Maguire, and written about by myself. And most recently by Craig Murray, now a human rights activist who was the British ambassador to Uzbekistan and Rector of the University of Dundee.

    Murray just wrote the piece “Activating the Genocide Convention” which states: “There are 149 states party to the Genocide Convention. Every one of them has the right to call out the genocide in progress in Gaza and report it to the United Nations. In the event that another state party disputes the claim of genocide — and Israel, the United States and the United Kingdom are all states party — then the International Court of Justice [also called the World Court] is required to adjudicate on ‘the responsibility of a State for genocide.'”

    Murray quotes from the Genocide Convention and cites evidence that Israel is conducting genocide and that the US and British governments are at minimum complicit in that. He then states: “The International Court of Justice is the most respected of international institutions; while the United States has repudiated its compulsory jurisdiction, the United Kingdom has not and the EU positively accepts it.

    “If the International Court of Justice makes a determination of genocide, then the International Criminal Court does not have to determine that genocide has happened. This is important because unlike the august and independent ICJ, the ICC is very much a western government puppet institution which will wiggle out of action if it can. But a determination of the ICJ of genocide and of complicity in genocide would reduce the ICC’s task to determining which individuals bear the responsibility. That is a prospect which can indeed alter the calculations of politicians.

    “It is also the fact that a reference for genocide would force the western media to address the issue and use the term, rather than just pump out propaganda about Hamas fighting bases in hospitals. …

    “I am afraid the question of why Palestine has not invoked the Genocide Convention takes us somewhere very dark. … It is Fatah who occupy the Palestinian seat at the United Nations, and the decision for Palestine to call into play the Genocide Convention lies with Mahmoud Abbas. It is more and more difficult daily to support Abbas. He seems extraordinarily passive, and the suspicion that he is more concerned with refighting the Palestinian civil war than with resisting the genocide is impossible to shake. By invoking the Genocide Convention he could put himself and Fatah back at the centre of the narrative. But he does nothing. I do not want to believe that corruption and a Blinken promise of inheriting Gaza are Mahmoud’s motivators. But at the moment, I cannot grab on to any other explanation to believe in.”

    Thus speeches from Abbas and allied Palestinians figures should be viewed extremely skeptically. It is also very odd, to say the very least, that Francesca Albanese, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian Territory occupied since 1967, and other officials put out a statement “Gaza: UN experts call on international community to prevent genocide against the Palestinian people” — but make no mention whatever of the Genocide Convention.

    As Murray writes: “Any one of the 139 states party could invoke the Genocide Convention against Israel and its co-conspirators. Those states include Iran, Russia, Libya, Malaysia, Bolivia, Venezuela, Brazil, Afghanistan, Cuba, Ireland, Iceland, Jordan, South Africa, Turkey and Qatar. But not one of these states has called out the genocide [by invoking the Convention]. Why?

    “It is not because the Genocide Convention is a dead letter. It is not. It was invoked against Serbia by Bosnia and Herzegovina and the ICJ ruled against Serbia with regard to the massacre at Srebrenica.” Murray notes that this helped lead to prosecutions.

    He adds: “Some states may simply not have thought of it. For Arab states in particular, the fact that Palestine itself has not invoked the Genocide Convention may provide an excuse. EU states can hide behind bloc unanimity.

    “But I am afraid that the truth is that no state cares sufficiently about the thousands of Palestinian children already killed and thousands more who will shortly be killed, to introduce another factor of hostility in their relationship with the United States. Just as at [the recent] summit in Saudi Arabia, where Islamic countries could not agree [on] an oil and gas boycott of Israel, the truth is that those in power really do not care about a genocide in Gaza. They care about their own interests.

    “It just needs one state to invoke the Genocide Convention and change the narrative and the international dynamic. That will only happen through the power of the people in pressing the idea on their governments. This is where everybody can do a little something to add to the pressure. Please do what you can.”

    What can you do? Urge countries which have been critical of Israel to invoke the Genocide Convention at the International Court of Justice. Get groups and influential people to make this a primary ask.

    Protests in NYC should include visits and vigils to the missions of those countries. Activists who have been arrested for protesting against Israel’s slaughter can ask UN officials from countries critical of Israel to invoke the Genocide Convention.

    Palestinians in Ramallah may be able to directly contact the representatives of various countries to Palestine.

    This can be done anywhere. Protests in London can respectfully appeal to the embassies of various countries critical of Israel.

    We need to keep pressing directly against the US and Israeli governments, but their hearts are like stone. If we reach other states to invoke the Genocide Convention, it may be a key stop in curtailing the slaughter.

    Moreover, it could be a turning point in global relations. Should a positive emergency ruling by the International Court of Justice be forthcoming, it would dramatically isolate the US and Israel at the UN. The US would of course try to block anything at the UN Security Council. But with a World Court ruling, Boyle argues, the stage would be set for the General Assembly to assert itself using the Uniting for Peace procedure. Combined with sustained protests, like the WTO and other critical confrontations, the costs of continuing the slaughter could become unsustainable. Moreover, a World Court ruling could facilitate other legal efforts, like universal jurisdiction.

    For all that to happen, a country needs to step forward and invoke the Genocide Convention.

    Make no mistake; any nation that does this may well be targeted in insidious ways by the US and by Israel. Any such nation should be afforded every bit of support people of goodwill can muster.

    Here's a website that seems to list all the embassies and other diplomatic missions around the world. People from anywhere can be emailing, calling and going to these embassies and missions, urging these countries to use every legal mechanism to pressure Israel to stop, including invoking the Genocide Convention: embassy-worldwide.com.

    A friend extracted emails of missions to the UN:

    info@afghanistan-un.org
    mission.newyork@mfa.gov.al
    officeofthepr.albania@mfa.gov.al
    algeriamission.ny@gmail.com
    contact@andorraun.org
    theangolamission@angolaun.org
    unmission@ab.gov.ag
    jackley.peters@ab.gov.ag
    enaun@mrecic.gov.ar
    armenia@missionun.org
    australiaun@dfat.gov.au
    new-york-ov@bmeia.gv.at
    mission@azerbaijanun.org
    mission@bahamasny.com
    newyork.mission@mofa.gov.bh
    bangladeshatun@gmail.com
    bdpmny@gmail.com
    prun@foreign.gov.bb
    barbados@un.int
    usaun@mfa.gov.by
    newyorkun@diplobel.fed.be
    blzun@belizemission.com
    blzun@aol.com
    onu.newyork@gouv.bj
    beninewyork@gmail.com
    bhutanmission@pmbny.bt
    missionboliviaun@gmail.com
    bihun@mvp.gov.ba
    botswana@un.int
    distri.delbrasonu@itamaraty.gov.br
    bruneiunmission@protonmail.com
    mission.newyork@mfa.bg
    miperfaso.ny@burkina-onu.org
    ambabunewyork@yahoo.fr
    cvpm.unny@mnec.gov.cv
    cambodia@un.int
    cameroon.mission@yahoo.com
    canada.un@international.gc.ca
    repercaf.ny@gmail.com
    chadmission.un@gmail.com
    chile.un@minrel.gob.cl
    chinesemission@yahoo.com
    colombia@colombiaun.org
    comores.nu@gmail.com
    cgbrazzadel60@gmail.com
    miscr-onu@rree.go.cr
    cotedivoiremission@yahoo.com
    cromiss.un@mvep.hr
    cuba_onu@cubanmission.com
    unmission@mfa.gov.cy
    un.newyork@embassy.mzv.cz
    dprk.un@verizon.net
    missiondrc@gmail.com
    nycmis@um.dk
    djibouti@nyct.net
    dominicaun@gmail.com
    drmun1114@gmail.com
    onunewyork@cancilleria.gob.ec
    mission@egyptmissionny.com
    elsalvador@un.int
    info@equatorialguineaun.org
    general@eritreaun.org
    mission.newyork@mfa.ee
    eswatini@un.int
    eswatinimissionunny@yahoo.com
    ethiopia@un.int
    mission@fijiprun.org
    sanomat.yke@gov.fi
    france@franceonu.org
    info@gabonunmission.com
    gambia_un@hotmail.com
    geomission.un@mfa.gov.ge
    info@new-york-un.diplo.de
    ghanaperm@aol.com
    grdel.un@mfa.gr
    gmun@mofa.gov.gd
    onunewyork@minex.gob.gt
    missionofguinea.un@gmail.com
    guinebissauonu@gmail.com
    pmny@mission.gov.gy
    mphonu.newyork@diplomatie.ht
    ny.honduras@hnun.org
    hungaryun.ny@mfa.gov.hu
    unmission@mfa.is
    india.newyorkpmi@mea.gov.in
    ptri@indonesiaun.org
    iranunny@mfa.gov.ir
    iraq.mission@iraqmission-un.com
    newyorkpmun@dfa.ie
    uninfo@newyork.mfa.gov.il
    info.italyun@esteri.it
    info.unmissionny@mfaft.gov.jm
    p-m-j@dn.mofa.go.jp
    missionun@jordanmissionun.com
    unkazmission@gmail.com
    info@kenyaun.org
    kimission.newyork@mfa.gov.ki
    kuwait@kuwaitmissionun.org
    kyrgyzstan.un.ny@mfa.gov.kg
    lao.pr.ny@gmail.com
    mission.un-ny@mfa.gov.lv
    contact@lebanonun.org
    lesothonewyork@gmail.com
    liberiamission@pmun.gov.lr
    mission@libya-un.gov.ly
    newyork@llv.li
    lithuaniaun@gmail.com
    newyork.rp@mae.etat.lu
    repermad.ny@gmail.com
    malawinewyork@aol.com
    malawiu@aol.com
    mwnewyorkun@kln.gov.my
    info@maldivesmission.com
    miperma@malionu.com
    malta-un.newyork@gov.mt
    marshallislands@rmiunmission.org
    mauritaniamission@gmail.com
    mauritiusmissionnyc@gmail.com
    onuusr1@sre.gob.mx
    fsmun@fsmgov.org
    monaco.un@gmail.com
    mongolianmission@twcmetrobiz.com
    unnewyork.montenegro@gmail.com
    morocco.un@maec.gov.ma
    mozambique.unmission@gmail.com
    myanmarmission@verizon.net
    info@namibiaunmission.org
    nauru@un.int
    nepalmissionusa@gmail.com
    nyv@minbuza.nl
    nzpmun@gmail.com
    nicaraguaunny@yahoo.com
    nigermission@ymail.com
    permny@nigeriaunmission.org
    newyork@mfa.gov.mk
    delun@mfa.no
    oman@un.int
    pakistan@pakun.org
    mission@palauun.org
    emb@panama-un.org
    pngun@pngmission.org
    paraguay.un@mre.gov.py
    onuper@unperu.org
    newyork.pm@nypm.org
    newyork.pm@dfa.gov.ph
    poland.un@msz.gov.pl
    portugal.nu@mne.pt
    pmun@mofa.gov.qa
    korea.un@mofa.go.kr
    unmoldova@mfa.gov.md
    newyork-onu@mae.ro
    press@russiaun.ru
    ambanewyork@minaffet.gov.rw
    ambanewyork@gmail.com
    sknmission@aol.com
    info@stluciamission.org
    svgmission@gmail.com
    ambassadorassistantsvg@gmail.com
    samoa@samoanymission.ws
    sanmarinoun@gmail.com
    rdstppmun@gmail.com
    correspondence@ksamission-gov.net
    senegal.mission@yahoo.fr
    info@serbiamissionun.org
    pr.office@serbiamissionun.org
    seychellesmissionun@gmail.com
    seychellesmission@sycun.org
    sierraleone@pmun.net
    singaporeun@outlook.com
    un.newyork@mzv.sk
    slomission.newyork@gov.si
    simun@solomons.com
    somalia@unmission.gov.so
    pmun.newyork@dirco.gov.za
    info@rssun-nyc.org
    rep.nuevayorkonu@maec.es
    prun.newyork@mfa.gov.lk
    mail@slmission.com
    sudan@sudanmission.org
    suriname_un@proton.me
    representationen.new-york@gov.se
    newyork.un@eda.admin.ch
    syrianmission-ny@sar-un.org
    tajikistanunmission@gmail.com
    thaimission.ny@gmail.com
    timorleste.unmission@gmail.com
    togo.mission@togounmission.org
    tongaunmission@gmail.com
    pmun-ny@trinbago.org
    tunisia@un.int
    tunisiamission@usa.com
    tr-delegation.newyork@mfa.gov.tr
    turkmenistan.un@mfa.gov.tm
    tuvalu.unmission@gov.tv
    admin@ugandaunny.com
    uno_us@mfa.gov.ua
    nyunprm@mofaic.gov.ae
    nyunprm@uaeun.org
    ukmissionny@gmail.com
    tanzania.un@nje.go.tz
    usun.newyork@state.gov
    urudeleg@mrree.gub.uy
    uzbekistan.un@gmail.com
    vanunmis@aol.com
    misionvenezuelaonu@gmail.com
    info@vietnam-un.org
    yemenmissionny@gmail.com
    un@grz.gov.zm
    info@zambiamissionun.com
    zimnewyork@gmail.com
    office@holyseemission.org
    admin@palestinemissionun.org
    aumission_ny@yahoo.com
    ny.un@las.int
    aalco@un.int
    cari.per.obs.un@gmail.com
    ccampos@sgsica-ny.org
    newyork@commonwealth.int
    gccny@gccsg.org
    ceeaceccasom@gmail.com
    kjawara-njai@ecowas.int
    ecowasmission.ny@gmail.com
    bfaedda@eplo.int
    delegation-new-york@eeas.europa.eu
    amparo.morales@filac.org
    jonathan.granoff@iaca.int
    dijana.duric@iaca.int
    un@iccwbo.org
    nyoffice@interpol.int
    newyork@idlo.int
    unobserver@idea.int
    reper.new-york@francophonie.org
    nyoffice@irena.org
    iucn@un.int
    internationalyouthorganization@un.int
    uncontact@oecd.org
    oic.un.ny@gmail.com
    pam.unny@pam.int
    srao@ppdsec.org
    rgarvey@ppdsec.org
    south@southcentre.int
    nyinfo@upeace.org
    ny-office@ipu.org
    newyork@icrc.org
    newyork.delegation@ifrc.org
    ioc-unobserver@olympic.org
    un.mission.ny@orderofmalta.int
    faolon-director@fao.org
    iaeany@un.org
    liaisonofficeny@icc-cpi.int
    ifad.ny@ifad.org
    newyork@ilo.org
    rpowell@imf.org
    jlammens@imf.org
    unofficeny@iom.int
    seaun@un.org
    itlos@itlos.org
    newyork@unesco.org
    office.newyork@unido.org
    whonewyork@who.int
    newyork.office@wipo.int
    ola.zahran@wipo.int
    lpaterson@wmo.int
    laura.paterson@un.org

    Emails of embassies to and from Palestine via this page.

    aeoalg@caramail.org
    alembac@ucomgh.com
    alestine@intnet.dj
    aliman@icon.co.zw
    ambpal@eunet.rs
    ambpal@eunet.yu
    auemb@mofa-gov.ps
    austrep@palnet.com
    bremb@mofa-gov.ps
    chinaemb_ps@mfa.gov.cn
    clemb@mofa-gov.ps
    cyprusoffice@palnet.com
    del.palestine@wanadoo.fr
    deleg.palestinienne@beon.be
    elian@freemail.hu
    em.alasad_asad@hotmail.com
    embagoda.palestine@mad.servicom.es
    embassy@palestineindia.com
    embassyofpalestine.portugal@gmail.com
    embassyofpalestine@gmail.com
    embpalnic@turbonett.com.in
    empaltr@gmail.com
    eosopmet@omantel.net.com
    falastin@hellasnet.gr
    fiemb@mofa-gov.ps
    gdpalestine@swissonline.ch
    info@gdp.ie
    info@plo.swieden.org
    iqemb@mofa-gov.ps
    jerusalem@mianet.com.ar
    jerusalem@telesat.com.co
    jorrep@palnet.com
    kwemb@mofa-gov.ps
    lbemb@mofa-gov.ps
    maemb@mofa-gov.ps
    ngemb@mofa-gov.ps
    pal.damas@gmail.com
    pal_embassy@yahoo.com
    palango@netangola.com
    palastinelo@hotmail.com
    palemb.no@outlook.com
    palemb1@yemen.net
    palembassy_ukraine@hotmail.com
    palembs@qatar.net.qa
    palembtn@yahoo.com
    palestcz@mbox.vol.cz
    palestin@spidernet.com
    palestine@dsi.net.pk
    palestine@paltsts-jp.com
    palestine_bel_emb@hotmail.com
    palestine_emb_abuja@yahoo.com
    palestine_emb_mozambique@yahoo.com
    palestinead@hotmail.com
    palestinebg@yahoo.com
    palestinegd@gmail.com
    palestinekorea@hotmail.com
    pgd@planet.nl
    plemb@mofa-gov.ps
    plo@neda.net
    plomission1@aol.com
    plosrilanka@hotmail.com
    ramallah@embassy.mzv.cz
    repkon@ramdk.org
    roem@mofa.ps
    roi_gaza@mtcgaza.com
    saemb@mofa-gov.ps
    sanomat.ram@formin.fi
    sdemb@mofa-gov.ps
    sifmagaz@palnet.com
    skemb@mofa-gov.ps
    snemb@mofa-gov.ps
    vnemb@mofa.pna.ps
    zaemb@mofa-gov.ps
    zmemb@mofa-gov.ps

    https://open.substack.com/pub/husseini/p/to-save-gaza-invoke-the-genocide?r=29hg4d&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
    To Save Gaza, Invoke the Genocide Convention The ICC is a "puppet institution". What's needed is a country to invoke the Genocide Convention at the International Court of Justice. Here's how, with argument, phone numbers, addresses and emails. Sam Husseini [Addendum: RootsAction and World Beyond War have put out the action alert “It’s Time to Invoke the Genocide Convention”. This full piece has been posted on X/Twitter with thread containing handles for various national leaders who can be petitioned.] Some of the greatest successes in recent human history have combined protest movements with strong diplomatic moves. In February 1998, the Clinton administration seemed poised to inflict a massive attack on Iraq, but vocal opposition from the US public, especially at a CNN town hall meeting in Ohio, combined by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan going to Iraq, repelled the US government attack. The following year, in the Battle of Seattle, combined protests in the streets and delegations from the global south finding their backbone resulted in the World Trade Organization’s plans collapsing. This was a major setback for global corporate interests. There is now effectively a global movement, largely based around mass protests, to stop Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. Several countries, including South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Comoros, Djibouti as well as Colombia and Algeria and Turkey have moved for the International Criminal Court to prosecute Israeli officials. The problem is that ICC has been dragging its heels for years on prosecuting Israelis. It has been called a “white man’s court” after only going after Africans, and, after letting Israel off the hook during an earlier assault on Gaza, “a hoax”. Some of these nations have called Israel’s war crimes “genocide”. They should act on their words and invoke the relevant treaty. Other nations that have been especially critical of Israel are Pakistan, Brazil, Chile, Belize, Jordan, Chad, Honduras, Bahrain, Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba. The International Court of Justice, also called the World Court, in contrast has ruled against Israel. But so far these rulings have been advisory opinions. It ruled against Israel in a case regarding its wall in 2004. In another case before it, is expected to rule against Israel’s long term policies. But what can be done now, Prof. Francis Boyle, who successfully represented the Bosnians before the World Court, argues is to use emergency processes to give more teeth to the World Court. This can be done by invoking the Genocide Convention. This is outlined by Boyle, noted by UN whistleblower Craig Mokhiber, backed by Nobel Peace Prize winner Mairead Maguire, and written about by myself. And most recently by Craig Murray, now a human rights activist who was the British ambassador to Uzbekistan and Rector of the University of Dundee. Murray just wrote the piece “Activating the Genocide Convention” which states: “There are 149 states party to the Genocide Convention. Every one of them has the right to call out the genocide in progress in Gaza and report it to the United Nations. In the event that another state party disputes the claim of genocide — and Israel, the United States and the United Kingdom are all states party — then the International Court of Justice [also called the World Court] is required to adjudicate on ‘the responsibility of a State for genocide.'” Murray quotes from the Genocide Convention and cites evidence that Israel is conducting genocide and that the US and British governments are at minimum complicit in that. He then states: “The International Court of Justice is the most respected of international institutions; while the United States has repudiated its compulsory jurisdiction, the United Kingdom has not and the EU positively accepts it. “If the International Court of Justice makes a determination of genocide, then the International Criminal Court does not have to determine that genocide has happened. This is important because unlike the august and independent ICJ, the ICC is very much a western government puppet institution which will wiggle out of action if it can. But a determination of the ICJ of genocide and of complicity in genocide would reduce the ICC’s task to determining which individuals bear the responsibility. That is a prospect which can indeed alter the calculations of politicians. “It is also the fact that a reference for genocide would force the western media to address the issue and use the term, rather than just pump out propaganda about Hamas fighting bases in hospitals. … “I am afraid the question of why Palestine has not invoked the Genocide Convention takes us somewhere very dark. … It is Fatah who occupy the Palestinian seat at the United Nations, and the decision for Palestine to call into play the Genocide Convention lies with Mahmoud Abbas. It is more and more difficult daily to support Abbas. He seems extraordinarily passive, and the suspicion that he is more concerned with refighting the Palestinian civil war than with resisting the genocide is impossible to shake. By invoking the Genocide Convention he could put himself and Fatah back at the centre of the narrative. But he does nothing. I do not want to believe that corruption and a Blinken promise of inheriting Gaza are Mahmoud’s motivators. But at the moment, I cannot grab on to any other explanation to believe in.” Thus speeches from Abbas and allied Palestinians figures should be viewed extremely skeptically. It is also very odd, to say the very least, that Francesca Albanese, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian Territory occupied since 1967, and other officials put out a statement “Gaza: UN experts call on international community to prevent genocide against the Palestinian people” — but make no mention whatever of the Genocide Convention. As Murray writes: “Any one of the 139 states party could invoke the Genocide Convention against Israel and its co-conspirators. Those states include Iran, Russia, Libya, Malaysia, Bolivia, Venezuela, Brazil, Afghanistan, Cuba, Ireland, Iceland, Jordan, South Africa, Turkey and Qatar. But not one of these states has called out the genocide [by invoking the Convention]. Why? “It is not because the Genocide Convention is a dead letter. It is not. It was invoked against Serbia by Bosnia and Herzegovina and the ICJ ruled against Serbia with regard to the massacre at Srebrenica.” Murray notes that this helped lead to prosecutions. He adds: “Some states may simply not have thought of it. For Arab states in particular, the fact that Palestine itself has not invoked the Genocide Convention may provide an excuse. EU states can hide behind bloc unanimity. “But I am afraid that the truth is that no state cares sufficiently about the thousands of Palestinian children already killed and thousands more who will shortly be killed, to introduce another factor of hostility in their relationship with the United States. Just as at [the recent] summit in Saudi Arabia, where Islamic countries could not agree [on] an oil and gas boycott of Israel, the truth is that those in power really do not care about a genocide in Gaza. They care about their own interests. “It just needs one state to invoke the Genocide Convention and change the narrative and the international dynamic. That will only happen through the power of the people in pressing the idea on their governments. This is where everybody can do a little something to add to the pressure. Please do what you can.” What can you do? Urge countries which have been critical of Israel to invoke the Genocide Convention at the International Court of Justice. Get groups and influential people to make this a primary ask. Protests in NYC should include visits and vigils to the missions of those countries. Activists who have been arrested for protesting against Israel’s slaughter can ask UN officials from countries critical of Israel to invoke the Genocide Convention. Palestinians in Ramallah may be able to directly contact the representatives of various countries to Palestine. This can be done anywhere. Protests in London can respectfully appeal to the embassies of various countries critical of Israel. We need to keep pressing directly against the US and Israeli governments, but their hearts are like stone. If we reach other states to invoke the Genocide Convention, it may be a key stop in curtailing the slaughter. Moreover, it could be a turning point in global relations. Should a positive emergency ruling by the International Court of Justice be forthcoming, it would dramatically isolate the US and Israel at the UN. The US would of course try to block anything at the UN Security Council. But with a World Court ruling, Boyle argues, the stage would be set for the General Assembly to assert itself using the Uniting for Peace procedure. Combined with sustained protests, like the WTO and other critical confrontations, the costs of continuing the slaughter could become unsustainable. Moreover, a World Court ruling could facilitate other legal efforts, like universal jurisdiction. For all that to happen, a country needs to step forward and invoke the Genocide Convention. Make no mistake; any nation that does this may well be targeted in insidious ways by the US and by Israel. Any such nation should be afforded every bit of support people of goodwill can muster. Here's a website that seems to list all the embassies and other diplomatic missions around the world. People from anywhere can be emailing, calling and going to these embassies and missions, urging these countries to use every legal mechanism to pressure Israel to stop, including invoking the Genocide Convention: embassy-worldwide.com. A friend extracted emails of missions to the UN: info@afghanistan-un.org mission.newyork@mfa.gov.al officeofthepr.albania@mfa.gov.al algeriamission.ny@gmail.com contact@andorraun.org theangolamission@angolaun.org unmission@ab.gov.ag jackley.peters@ab.gov.ag enaun@mrecic.gov.ar armenia@missionun.org australiaun@dfat.gov.au new-york-ov@bmeia.gv.at mission@azerbaijanun.org mission@bahamasny.com newyork.mission@mofa.gov.bh bangladeshatun@gmail.com bdpmny@gmail.com prun@foreign.gov.bb barbados@un.int usaun@mfa.gov.by newyorkun@diplobel.fed.be blzun@belizemission.com blzun@aol.com onu.newyork@gouv.bj beninewyork@gmail.com bhutanmission@pmbny.bt missionboliviaun@gmail.com bihun@mvp.gov.ba botswana@un.int distri.delbrasonu@itamaraty.gov.br bruneiunmission@protonmail.com mission.newyork@mfa.bg miperfaso.ny@burkina-onu.org ambabunewyork@yahoo.fr cvpm.unny@mnec.gov.cv cambodia@un.int cameroon.mission@yahoo.com canada.un@international.gc.ca repercaf.ny@gmail.com chadmission.un@gmail.com chile.un@minrel.gob.cl chinesemission@yahoo.com colombia@colombiaun.org comores.nu@gmail.com cgbrazzadel60@gmail.com miscr-onu@rree.go.cr cotedivoiremission@yahoo.com cromiss.un@mvep.hr cuba_onu@cubanmission.com unmission@mfa.gov.cy un.newyork@embassy.mzv.cz dprk.un@verizon.net missiondrc@gmail.com nycmis@um.dk djibouti@nyct.net dominicaun@gmail.com drmun1114@gmail.com onunewyork@cancilleria.gob.ec mission@egyptmissionny.com elsalvador@un.int info@equatorialguineaun.org general@eritreaun.org mission.newyork@mfa.ee eswatini@un.int eswatinimissionunny@yahoo.com ethiopia@un.int mission@fijiprun.org sanomat.yke@gov.fi france@franceonu.org info@gabonunmission.com gambia_un@hotmail.com geomission.un@mfa.gov.ge info@new-york-un.diplo.de ghanaperm@aol.com grdel.un@mfa.gr gmun@mofa.gov.gd onunewyork@minex.gob.gt missionofguinea.un@gmail.com guinebissauonu@gmail.com pmny@mission.gov.gy mphonu.newyork@diplomatie.ht ny.honduras@hnun.org hungaryun.ny@mfa.gov.hu unmission@mfa.is india.newyorkpmi@mea.gov.in ptri@indonesiaun.org iranunny@mfa.gov.ir iraq.mission@iraqmission-un.com newyorkpmun@dfa.ie uninfo@newyork.mfa.gov.il info.italyun@esteri.it info.unmissionny@mfaft.gov.jm p-m-j@dn.mofa.go.jp missionun@jordanmissionun.com unkazmission@gmail.com info@kenyaun.org kimission.newyork@mfa.gov.ki kuwait@kuwaitmissionun.org kyrgyzstan.un.ny@mfa.gov.kg lao.pr.ny@gmail.com mission.un-ny@mfa.gov.lv contact@lebanonun.org lesothonewyork@gmail.com liberiamission@pmun.gov.lr mission@libya-un.gov.ly newyork@llv.li lithuaniaun@gmail.com newyork.rp@mae.etat.lu repermad.ny@gmail.com malawinewyork@aol.com malawiu@aol.com mwnewyorkun@kln.gov.my info@maldivesmission.com miperma@malionu.com malta-un.newyork@gov.mt marshallislands@rmiunmission.org mauritaniamission@gmail.com mauritiusmissionnyc@gmail.com onuusr1@sre.gob.mx fsmun@fsmgov.org monaco.un@gmail.com mongolianmission@twcmetrobiz.com unnewyork.montenegro@gmail.com morocco.un@maec.gov.ma mozambique.unmission@gmail.com myanmarmission@verizon.net info@namibiaunmission.org nauru@un.int nepalmissionusa@gmail.com nyv@minbuza.nl nzpmun@gmail.com nicaraguaunny@yahoo.com nigermission@ymail.com permny@nigeriaunmission.org newyork@mfa.gov.mk delun@mfa.no oman@un.int pakistan@pakun.org mission@palauun.org emb@panama-un.org pngun@pngmission.org paraguay.un@mre.gov.py onuper@unperu.org newyork.pm@nypm.org newyork.pm@dfa.gov.ph poland.un@msz.gov.pl portugal.nu@mne.pt pmun@mofa.gov.qa korea.un@mofa.go.kr unmoldova@mfa.gov.md newyork-onu@mae.ro press@russiaun.ru ambanewyork@minaffet.gov.rw ambanewyork@gmail.com sknmission@aol.com info@stluciamission.org svgmission@gmail.com ambassadorassistantsvg@gmail.com samoa@samoanymission.ws sanmarinoun@gmail.com rdstppmun@gmail.com correspondence@ksamission-gov.net senegal.mission@yahoo.fr info@serbiamissionun.org pr.office@serbiamissionun.org seychellesmissionun@gmail.com seychellesmission@sycun.org sierraleone@pmun.net singaporeun@outlook.com un.newyork@mzv.sk slomission.newyork@gov.si simun@solomons.com somalia@unmission.gov.so pmun.newyork@dirco.gov.za info@rssun-nyc.org rep.nuevayorkonu@maec.es prun.newyork@mfa.gov.lk mail@slmission.com sudan@sudanmission.org suriname_un@proton.me representationen.new-york@gov.se newyork.un@eda.admin.ch syrianmission-ny@sar-un.org tajikistanunmission@gmail.com thaimission.ny@gmail.com timorleste.unmission@gmail.com togo.mission@togounmission.org tongaunmission@gmail.com pmun-ny@trinbago.org tunisia@un.int tunisiamission@usa.com tr-delegation.newyork@mfa.gov.tr turkmenistan.un@mfa.gov.tm tuvalu.unmission@gov.tv admin@ugandaunny.com uno_us@mfa.gov.ua nyunprm@mofaic.gov.ae nyunprm@uaeun.org ukmissionny@gmail.com tanzania.un@nje.go.tz usun.newyork@state.gov urudeleg@mrree.gub.uy uzbekistan.un@gmail.com vanunmis@aol.com misionvenezuelaonu@gmail.com info@vietnam-un.org yemenmissionny@gmail.com un@grz.gov.zm info@zambiamissionun.com zimnewyork@gmail.com office@holyseemission.org admin@palestinemissionun.org aumission_ny@yahoo.com ny.un@las.int aalco@un.int cari.per.obs.un@gmail.com ccampos@sgsica-ny.org newyork@commonwealth.int gccny@gccsg.org ceeaceccasom@gmail.com kjawara-njai@ecowas.int ecowasmission.ny@gmail.com bfaedda@eplo.int delegation-new-york@eeas.europa.eu amparo.morales@filac.org jonathan.granoff@iaca.int dijana.duric@iaca.int un@iccwbo.org nyoffice@interpol.int newyork@idlo.int unobserver@idea.int reper.new-york@francophonie.org nyoffice@irena.org iucn@un.int internationalyouthorganization@un.int uncontact@oecd.org oic.un.ny@gmail.com pam.unny@pam.int srao@ppdsec.org rgarvey@ppdsec.org south@southcentre.int nyinfo@upeace.org ny-office@ipu.org newyork@icrc.org newyork.delegation@ifrc.org ioc-unobserver@olympic.org un.mission.ny@orderofmalta.int faolon-director@fao.org iaeany@un.org liaisonofficeny@icc-cpi.int ifad.ny@ifad.org newyork@ilo.org rpowell@imf.org jlammens@imf.org unofficeny@iom.int seaun@un.org itlos@itlos.org newyork@unesco.org office.newyork@unido.org whonewyork@who.int newyork.office@wipo.int ola.zahran@wipo.int lpaterson@wmo.int laura.paterson@un.org Emails of embassies to and from Palestine via this page. aeoalg@caramail.org alembac@ucomgh.com alestine@intnet.dj aliman@icon.co.zw ambpal@eunet.rs ambpal@eunet.yu auemb@mofa-gov.ps austrep@palnet.com bremb@mofa-gov.ps chinaemb_ps@mfa.gov.cn clemb@mofa-gov.ps cyprusoffice@palnet.com del.palestine@wanadoo.fr deleg.palestinienne@beon.be elian@freemail.hu em.alasad_asad@hotmail.com embagoda.palestine@mad.servicom.es embassy@palestineindia.com embassyofpalestine.portugal@gmail.com embassyofpalestine@gmail.com embpalnic@turbonett.com.in empaltr@gmail.com eosopmet@omantel.net.com falastin@hellasnet.gr fiemb@mofa-gov.ps gdpalestine@swissonline.ch info@gdp.ie info@plo.swieden.org iqemb@mofa-gov.ps jerusalem@mianet.com.ar jerusalem@telesat.com.co jorrep@palnet.com kwemb@mofa-gov.ps lbemb@mofa-gov.ps maemb@mofa-gov.ps ngemb@mofa-gov.ps pal.damas@gmail.com pal_embassy@yahoo.com palango@netangola.com palastinelo@hotmail.com palemb.no@outlook.com palemb1@yemen.net palembassy_ukraine@hotmail.com palembs@qatar.net.qa palembtn@yahoo.com palestcz@mbox.vol.cz palestin@spidernet.com palestine@dsi.net.pk palestine@paltsts-jp.com palestine_bel_emb@hotmail.com palestine_emb_abuja@yahoo.com palestine_emb_mozambique@yahoo.com palestinead@hotmail.com palestinebg@yahoo.com palestinegd@gmail.com palestinekorea@hotmail.com pgd@planet.nl plemb@mofa-gov.ps plo@neda.net plomission1@aol.com plosrilanka@hotmail.com ramallah@embassy.mzv.cz repkon@ramdk.org roem@mofa.ps roi_gaza@mtcgaza.com saemb@mofa-gov.ps sanomat.ram@formin.fi sdemb@mofa-gov.ps sifmagaz@palnet.com skemb@mofa-gov.ps snemb@mofa-gov.ps vnemb@mofa.pna.ps zaemb@mofa-gov.ps zmemb@mofa-gov.ps https://open.substack.com/pub/husseini/p/to-save-gaza-invoke-the-genocide?r=29hg4d&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
    OPEN.SUBSTACK.COM
    To Save Gaza, Invoke the Genocide Convention
    The ICC is a "puppet institution". What's needed is a country to invoke the Genocide Convention at the International Court of Justice. Here's how, with argument, phone numbers, addresses and emails.
    1 Comments 0 Shares 31611 Views

  • To Save Gaza, Invoke the Genocide Convention

    The ICC is a "puppet institution". What's needed is a country to invoke the Genocide Convention at the International Court of Justice. Here's how, with argument, phone numbers, addresses and emails.
    Sam Husseini





    [Addendum: RootsAction and World Beyond War have put out the action alert “It’s Time to Invoke the Genocide Convention”. This full piece has been posted on X/Twitter with threadcontaining handles for various national leaders who can be petitioned.]

    Some of the greatest successes in recent human history have combined protest movements with strong diplomatic moves.

    In February 1998, the Clinton administration seemed poised to inflict a massive attack on Iraq, but vocal opposition from the US public, especially at a CNN town hall meeting in Ohio, combined by UN Secretary General Kofi Annangoing to Iraq, repelled the US government attack.

    The following year, in the Battle of Seattle, combined protests in the streets and delegations from the global south finding their backbone resulted in the World Trade Organization’s plans collapsing. This was a major setback for global corporate interests.

    There is now effectively a global movement, largely based around mass protests, to stop Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in Gaza.

    Several countries, including South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Comoros, Djibouti as well as Colombia and Algeria and Turkey have moved for the International Criminal Court to prosecute Israeli officials.

    The problem is that ICC has been dragging its heels for years on prosecuting Israelis. It has been called a “white man’s court” after only going after Africans, and, after letting Israel off the hook during an earlier assault on Gaza, “a hoax”. Some of these nations have called Israel’s war crimes “genocide”. They should act on their words and invoke the relevant treaty. Other nations that have been especially critical of Israel are Pakistan, Brazil, Chile, Belize, Jordan, Chad, Honduras, Bahrain, Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba.

    The International Court of Justice, also called the World Court, in contrast has ruled against Israel. But so far these rulings have been advisory opinions. It ruled against Israel in a case regarding its wall in 2004. In another case before it, is expected to rule against Israel’s long term policies.

    But what can be done now, Prof. Francis Boyle, who successfully represented the Bosnians before the World Court, argues is to use emergency processes to give more teeth to the World Court. This can be done by invoking the Genocide Convention. This is outlined by Boyle, noted by UN whistleblower Craig Mokhiber, backed by Nobel Peace Prize winner Mairead Maguire, and written about by myself. And most recently by Craig Murray, now a human rights activist who was the British ambassador to Uzbekistan and Rector of the University of Dundee.

    Murray just wrote the piece “Activating the Genocide Convention” which states: “There are 149 states party to the Genocide Convention. Every one of them has the right to call out the genocide in progress in Gaza and report it to the United Nations. In the event that another state party disputes the claim of genocide — and Israel, the United States and the United Kingdom are all states party — then the International Court of Justice [also called the World Court] is required to adjudicate on ‘the responsibility of a State for genocide.'”

    Murray quotes from the Genocide Convention and cites evidence that Israel is conducting genocide and that the US and British governments are at minimum complicit in that. He then states: “The International Court of Justice is the most respected of international institutions; while the United States has repudiated its compulsory jurisdiction, the United Kingdom has not and the EU positively accepts it.



    “If the International Court of Justice makes a determination of genocide, then the International Criminal Court does not have to determine that genocide has happened. This is important because unlike the august and independent ICJ, the ICC is very much a western government puppet institution which will wiggle out of action if it can. But a determination of the ICJ of genocide and of complicity in genocide would reduce the ICC’s task to determining which individuals bear the responsibility. That is a prospect which can indeed alter the calculations of politicians.



    “It is also the fact that a reference for genocide would force the western media to address the issue and use the term, rather than just pump out propaganda about Hamas fighting bases in hospitals. …

    “I am afraid the question of why Palestine has not invoked the Genocide Convention takes us somewhere very dark. … It is Fatah who occupy the Palestinian seat at the United Nations, and the decision for Palestine to call into play the Genocide Convention lies with Mahmoud Abbas. It is more and more difficult daily to support Abbas. He seems extraordinarily passive, and the suspicion that he is more concerned with refighting the Palestinian civil war than with resisting the genocide is impossible to shake. By invoking the Genocide Convention he could put himself and Fatah back at the centre of the narrative. But he does nothing. I do not want to believe that corruption and a Blinken promise of inheriting Gaza are Mahmoud’s motivators. But at the moment, I cannot grab on to any other explanation to believe in.”

    Thus speeches from Abbas and allied Palestinians figures should be viewed extremely skeptically. It is also very odd, to say the very least, that Francesca Albanese, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian Territory occupied since 1967, and other officials put out a statement “Gaza: UN experts call on international community to prevent genocide against the Palestinian people” — but make no mention whatever of the Genocide Convention.



    As Murray writes: “Any one of the 139 states party could invoke the Genocide Convention against Israel and its co-conspirators. Those states include Iran, Russia, Libya, Malaysia, Bolivia, Venezuela, Brazil, Afghanistan, Cuba, Ireland, Iceland, Jordan, South Africa, Turkey and Qatar. But not one of these states has called out the genocide [by invoking the Convention]. Why?

    “It is not because the Genocide Convention is a dead letter. It is not. It was invoked against Serbia by Bosnia and Herzegovina and the ICJ ruled against Serbia with regard to the massacre at Srebrenica.” Murray notes that this helped lead to prosecutions.



    He adds: “Some states may simply not have thought of it. For Arab states in particular, the fact that Palestine itself has not invoked the Genocide Convention may provide an excuse. EU states can hide behind bloc unanimity.



    “But I am afraid that the truth is that no state cares sufficiently about the thousands of Palestinian children already killed and thousands more who will shortly be killed, to introduce another factor of hostility in their relationship with the United States. Just as at [the recent] summit in Saudi Arabia, where Islamic countries could not agree [on] an oil and gas boycott of Israel, the truth is that those in power really do not care about a genocide in Gaza. They care about their own interests.



    “It just needs one state to invoke the Genocide Convention and change the narrative and the international dynamic. That will only happen through the power of the people in pressing the idea on their governments. This is where everybody can do a little something to add to the pressure. Please do what you can.”

    What can you do? Urge countries which have been critical of Israel to invoke the Genocide Convention at the International Court of Justice. Get groups and influential people to make this a primary ask.

    Protests in NYC should include visits and vigils to the missions of those countries. Activists who have been arrested for protesting against Israel’s slaughter can ask UN officials from countries critical of Israel to invoke the Genocide Convention.

    Palestinians in Ramallah may be able to directly contact the representatives of various countries to Palestine.

    This can be done anywhere. Protests in London can respectfully appeal to the embassies of various countries critical of Israel.

    We need to keep pressing directly against the US and Israeli governments, but their hearts are like stone. If we reach other states to invoke the Genocide Convention, it may be a key stop in curtailing the slaughter.

    Moreover, it could be a turning point in global relations. Should a positive emergency ruling by the International Court of Justice be forthcoming, it would dramatically isolate the US and Israel at the UN. The US would of course try to block anything at the UN Security Council. But with a World Court ruling, Boyle argues, the stage would be set for the General Assembly to assert itself using the Uniting for Peace procedure. Combined with sustained protests, like the WTO and other critical confrontations, the costs of continuing the slaughter could become unsustainable. Moreover, a World Court ruling could facilitate other legal efforts, like universal jurisdiction.

    For all that to happen, a country needs to step forward and invoke the Genocide Convention.

    Make no mistake; any nation that does this may well be targeted in insidious ways by the US and by Israel. Any such nation should be afforded every bit of support people of goodwill can muster.

    Here's a website that seems to list all the embassies and other diplomatic missions around the world. People from anywhere can be emailing, calling and going to these embassies and missions, urging these countries to use every legal mechanism to pressure Israel to stop, including invoking the Genocide Convention: embassy-worldwide.com.

    A friend extracted emails of missions to the UN:

    info@afghanistan-un.org

    mission.newyork@mfa.gov.al

    officeofthepr.albania@mfa.gov.al

    algeriamission.ny@gmail.com

    contact@andorraun.org

    theangolamission@angolaun.org

    unmission@ab.gov.ag

    jackley.peters@ab.gov.ag

    enaun@mrecic.gov.ar

    armenia@missionun.org

    australiaun@dfat.gov.au

    new-york-ov@bmeia.gv.at

    mission@azerbaijanun.org

    mission@bahamasny.com

    newyork.mission@mofa.gov.bh

    bangladeshatun@gmail.com

    bdpmny@gmail.com

    prun@foreign.gov.bb

    barbados@un.int

    usaun@mfa.gov.by

    newyorkun@diplobel.fed.be

    blzun@belizemission.com

    blzun@aol.com

    onu.newyork@gouv.bj

    beninewyork@gmail.com

    bhutanmission@pmbny.bt

    missionboliviaun@gmail.com

    bihun@mvp.gov.ba

    botswana@un.int

    distri.delbrasonu@itamaraty.gov.br

    bruneiunmission@protonmail.com

    mission.newyork@mfa.bg

    miperfaso.ny@burkina-onu.org

    ambabunewyork@yahoo.fr

    cvpm.unny@mnec.gov.cv

    cambodia@un.int

    cameroon.mission@yahoo.com

    canada.un@international.gc.ca

    repercaf.ny@gmail.com

    chadmission.un@gmail.com

    chile.un@minrel.gob.cl

    chinesemission@yahoo.com

    colombia@colombiaun.org

    comores.nu@gmail.com

    cgbrazzadel60@gmail.com

    miscr-onu@rree.go.cr

    cotedivoiremission@yahoo.com

    cromiss.un@mvep.hr

    cuba_onu@cubanmission.com

    unmission@mfa.gov.cy

    un.newyork@embassy.mzv.cz

    dprk.un@verizon.net

    missiondrc@gmail.com

    nycmis@um.dk

    djibouti@nyct.net

    dominicaun@gmail.com

    drmun1114@gmail.com

    onunewyork@cancilleria.gob.ec

    mission@egyptmissionny.com

    elsalvador@un.int

    info@equatorialguineaun.org

    general@eritreaun.org

    mission.newyork@mfa.ee

    eswatini@un.int

    eswatinimissionunny@yahoo.com

    ethiopia@un.int

    mission@fijiprun.org

    sanomat.yke@gov.fi

    france@franceonu.org

    info@gabonunmission.com

    gambia_un@hotmail.com

    geomission.un@mfa.gov.ge

    info@new-york-un.diplo.de

    ghanaperm@aol.com

    grdel.un@mfa.gr

    gmun@mofa.gov.gd

    onunewyork@minex.gob.gt

    missionofguinea.un@gmail.com

    guinebissauonu@gmail.com

    pmny@mission.gov.gy

    mphonu.newyork@diplomatie.ht

    ny.honduras@hnun.org

    hungaryun.ny@mfa.gov.hu

    unmission@mfa.is

    india.newyorkpmi@mea.gov.in

    ptri@indonesiaun.org

    iranunny@mfa.gov.ir

    iraq.mission@iraqmission-un.com

    newyorkpmun@dfa.ie

    uninfo@newyork.mfa.gov.il

    info.italyun@esteri.it

    info.unmissionny@mfaft.gov.jm

    p-m-j@dn.mofa.go.jp

    missionun@jordanmissionun.com

    unkazmission@gmail.com

    info@kenyaun.org

    kimission.newyork@mfa.gov.ki

    kuwait@kuwaitmissionun.org

    kyrgyzstan.un.ny@mfa.gov.kg

    lao.pr.ny@gmail.com

    mission.un-ny@mfa.gov.lv

    contact@lebanonun.org

    lesothonewyork@gmail.com

    liberiamission@pmun.gov.lr

    mission@libya-un.gov.ly

    newyork@llv.li

    lithuaniaun@gmail.com

    newyork.rp@mae.etat.lu

    repermad.ny@gmail.com

    malawinewyork@aol.com

    malawiu@aol.com

    mwnewyorkun@kln.gov.my

    info@maldivesmission.com

    miperma@malionu.com

    malta-un.newyork@gov.mt

    marshallislands@rmiunmission.org

    mauritaniamission@gmail.com

    mauritiusmissionnyc@gmail.com

    onuusr1@sre.gob.mx

    fsmun@fsmgov.org

    monaco.un@gmail.com

    mongolianmission@twcmetrobiz.com

    unnewyork.montenegro@gmail.com

    morocco.un@maec.gov.ma

    mozambique.unmission@gmail.com

    myanmarmission@verizon.net

    info@namibiaunmission.org

    nauru@un.int

    nepalmissionusa@gmail.com

    nyv@minbuza.nl

    nzpmun@gmail.com

    nicaraguaunny@yahoo.com

    nigermission@ymail.com

    permny@nigeriaunmission.org

    newyork@mfa.gov.mk

    delun@mfa.no

    oman@un.int

    pakistan@pakun.org

    mission@palauun.org

    emb@panama-un.org

    pngun@pngmission.org

    paraguay.un@mre.gov.py

    onuper@unperu.org

    newyork.pm@nypm.org

    newyork.pm@dfa.gov.ph

    poland.un@msz.gov.pl

    portugal.nu@mne.pt

    pmun@mofa.gov.qa

    korea.un@mofa.go.kr

    unmoldova@mfa.gov.md

    newyork-onu@mae.ro

    press@russiaun.ru

    ambanewyork@minaffet.gov.rw

    ambanewyork@gmail.com

    sknmission@aol.com

    info@stluciamission.org

    svgmission@gmail.com

    ambassadorassistantsvg@gmail.com

    samoa@samoanymission.ws

    sanmarinoun@gmail.com

    rdstppmun@gmail.com

    correspondence@ksamission-gov.net

    senegal.mission@yahoo.fr

    info@serbiamissionun.org

    pr.office@serbiamissionun.org

    seychellesmissionun@gmail.com

    seychellesmission@sycun.org

    sierraleone@pmun.net

    singaporeun@outlook.com

    un.newyork@mzv.sk

    slomission.newyork@gov.si

    simun@solomons.com

    somalia@unmission.gov.so

    pmun.newyork@dirco.gov.za

    info@rssun-nyc.org

    rep.nuevayorkonu@maec.es

    prun.newyork@mfa.gov.lk

    mail@slmission.com

    sudan@sudanmission.org

    suriname_un@proton.me

    representationen.new-york@gov.se

    newyork.un@eda.admin.ch

    syrianmission-ny@sar-un.org

    tajikistanunmission@gmail.com

    thaimission.ny@gmail.com

    timorleste.unmission@gmail.com

    togo.mission@togounmission.org

    tongaunmission@gmail.com

    pmun-ny@trinbago.org

    tunisia@un.int

    tunisiamission@usa.com

    tr-delegation.newyork@mfa.gov.tr

    turkmenistan.un@mfa.gov.tm

    tuvalu.unmission@gov.tv

    admin@ugandaunny.com

    uno_us@mfa.gov.ua

    nyunprm@mofaic.gov.ae

    nyunprm@uaeun.org

    ukmissionny@gmail.com

    tanzania.un@nje.go.tz

    usun.newyork@state.gov

    urudeleg@mrree.gub.uy

    uzbekistan.un@gmail.com

    vanunmis@aol.com

    misionvenezuelaonu@gmail.com

    info@vietnam-un.org

    yemenmissionny@gmail.com

    un@grz.gov.zm

    info@zambiamissionun.com

    zimnewyork@gmail.com

    office@holyseemission.org

    admin@palestinemissionun.org

    aumission_ny@yahoo.com

    ny.un@las.int

    aalco@un.int

    cari.per.obs.un@gmail.com

    ccampos@sgsica-ny.org

    newyork@commonwealth.int

    gccny@gccsg.org

    ceeaceccasom@gmail.com

    kjawara-njai@ecowas.int

    ecowasmission.ny@gmail.com

    bfaedda@eplo.int

    delegation-new-york@eeas.europa.eu

    amparo.morales@filac.org

    jonathan.granoff@iaca.int

    dijana.duric@iaca.int

    un@iccwbo.org

    nyoffice@interpol.int

    newyork@idlo.int

    unobserver@idea.int

    reper.new-york@francophonie.org

    nyoffice@irena.org

    iucn@un.int

    internationalyouthorganization@un.int

    uncontact@oecd.org

    oic.un.ny@gmail.com

    pam.unny@pam.int

    srao@ppdsec.org

    rgarvey@ppdsec.org

    south@southcentre.int

    nyinfo@upeace.org

    ny-office@ipu.org

    newyork@icrc.org

    newyork.delegation@ifrc.org

    ioc-unobserver@olympic.org

    un.mission.ny@orderofmalta.int

    faolon-director@fao.org

    iaeany@un.org

    liaisonofficeny@icc-cpi.int

    ifad.ny@ifad.org

    newyork@ilo.org

    rpowell@imf.org

    jlammens@imf.org

    unofficeny@iom.int

    seaun@un.org

    itlos@itlos.org

    newyork@unesco.org

    office.newyork@unido.org

    whonewyork@who.int

    newyork.office@wipo.int

    ola.zahran@wipo.int

    lpaterson@wmo.int

    laura.paterson@un.org

    Emails of embassies to and from Palestine via this page.

    aeoalg@caramail.org

    alembac@ucomgh.com

    alestine@intnet.dj

    aliman@icon.co.zw

    ambpal@eunet.rs

    ambpal@eunet.yu

    auemb@mofa-gov.ps

    austrep@palnet.com

    bremb@mofa-gov.ps

    chinaemb_ps@mfa.gov.cn

    clemb@mofa-gov.ps

    cyprusoffice@palnet.com

    del.palestine@wanadoo.fr

    deleg.palestinienne@beon.be

    elian@freemail.hu

    em.alasad_asad@hotmail.com

    embagoda.palestine@mad.servicom.es

    embassy@palestineindia.com

    embassyofpalestine.portugal@gmail.com

    embassyofpalestine@gmail.com

    embpalnic@turbonett.com.in

    empaltr@gmail.com

    eosopmet@omantel.net.com

    falastin@hellasnet.gr

    fiemb@mofa-gov.ps

    gdpalestine@swissonline.ch

    info@gdp.ie

    info@plo.swieden.org

    iqemb@mofa-gov.ps

    jerusalem@mianet.com.ar

    jerusalem@telesat.com.co

    jorrep@palnet.com

    kwemb@mofa-gov.ps

    lbemb@mofa-gov.ps

    maemb@mofa-gov.ps

    ngemb@mofa-gov.ps

    pal.damas@gmail.com

    pal_embassy@yahoo.com

    palango@netangola.com

    palastinelo@hotmail.com

    palemb.no@outlook.com

    palemb1@yemen.net

    palembassy_ukraine@hotmail.com

    palembs@qatar.net.qa

    palembtn@yahoo.com

    palestcz@mbox.vol.cz

    palestin@spidernet.com

    palestine@dsi.net.pk

    palestine@paltsts-jp.com

    palestine_bel_emb@hotmail.com

    palestine_emb_abuja@yahoo.com

    palestine_emb_mozambique@yahoo.com

    palestinead@hotmail.com

    palestinebg@yahoo.com

    palestinegd@gmail.com

    palestinekorea@hotmail.com

    pgd@planet.nl

    plemb@mofa-gov.ps

    plo@neda.net

    plomission1@aol.com

    plosrilanka@hotmail.com

    ramallah@embassy.mzv.cz

    repkon@ramdk.org

    roem@mofa.ps

    roi_gaza@mtcgaza.com

    saemb@mofa-gov.ps

    sanomat.ram@formin.fi

    sdemb@mofa-gov.ps

    sifmagaz@palnet.com

    skemb@mofa-gov.ps

    snemb@mofa-gov.ps

    vnemb@mofa.pna.ps

    zaemb@mofa-gov.ps

    zmemb@mofa-gov.ps






    Urge Governments to Invoke the Genocide Convention to Stop the War on Gaza

    https://worldbeyondwar.org/gaza-genocide/
    To Save Gaza, Invoke the Genocide Convention The ICC is a "puppet institution". What's needed is a country to invoke the Genocide Convention at the International Court of Justice. Here's how, with argument, phone numbers, addresses and emails. Sam Husseini [Addendum: RootsAction and World Beyond War have put out the action alert “It’s Time to Invoke the Genocide Convention”. This full piece has been posted on X/Twitter with threadcontaining handles for various national leaders who can be petitioned.] Some of the greatest successes in recent human history have combined protest movements with strong diplomatic moves. In February 1998, the Clinton administration seemed poised to inflict a massive attack on Iraq, but vocal opposition from the US public, especially at a CNN town hall meeting in Ohio, combined by UN Secretary General Kofi Annangoing to Iraq, repelled the US government attack. The following year, in the Battle of Seattle, combined protests in the streets and delegations from the global south finding their backbone resulted in the World Trade Organization’s plans collapsing. This was a major setback for global corporate interests. There is now effectively a global movement, largely based around mass protests, to stop Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. Several countries, including South Africa, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Comoros, Djibouti as well as Colombia and Algeria and Turkey have moved for the International Criminal Court to prosecute Israeli officials. The problem is that ICC has been dragging its heels for years on prosecuting Israelis. It has been called a “white man’s court” after only going after Africans, and, after letting Israel off the hook during an earlier assault on Gaza, “a hoax”. Some of these nations have called Israel’s war crimes “genocide”. They should act on their words and invoke the relevant treaty. Other nations that have been especially critical of Israel are Pakistan, Brazil, Chile, Belize, Jordan, Chad, Honduras, Bahrain, Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba. The International Court of Justice, also called the World Court, in contrast has ruled against Israel. But so far these rulings have been advisory opinions. It ruled against Israel in a case regarding its wall in 2004. In another case before it, is expected to rule against Israel’s long term policies. But what can be done now, Prof. Francis Boyle, who successfully represented the Bosnians before the World Court, argues is to use emergency processes to give more teeth to the World Court. This can be done by invoking the Genocide Convention. This is outlined by Boyle, noted by UN whistleblower Craig Mokhiber, backed by Nobel Peace Prize winner Mairead Maguire, and written about by myself. And most recently by Craig Murray, now a human rights activist who was the British ambassador to Uzbekistan and Rector of the University of Dundee. Murray just wrote the piece “Activating the Genocide Convention” which states: “There are 149 states party to the Genocide Convention. Every one of them has the right to call out the genocide in progress in Gaza and report it to the United Nations. In the event that another state party disputes the claim of genocide — and Israel, the United States and the United Kingdom are all states party — then the International Court of Justice [also called the World Court] is required to adjudicate on ‘the responsibility of a State for genocide.'” Murray quotes from the Genocide Convention and cites evidence that Israel is conducting genocide and that the US and British governments are at minimum complicit in that. He then states: “The International Court of Justice is the most respected of international institutions; while the United States has repudiated its compulsory jurisdiction, the United Kingdom has not and the EU positively accepts it. “If the International Court of Justice makes a determination of genocide, then the International Criminal Court does not have to determine that genocide has happened. This is important because unlike the august and independent ICJ, the ICC is very much a western government puppet institution which will wiggle out of action if it can. But a determination of the ICJ of genocide and of complicity in genocide would reduce the ICC’s task to determining which individuals bear the responsibility. That is a prospect which can indeed alter the calculations of politicians. “It is also the fact that a reference for genocide would force the western media to address the issue and use the term, rather than just pump out propaganda about Hamas fighting bases in hospitals. … “I am afraid the question of why Palestine has not invoked the Genocide Convention takes us somewhere very dark. … It is Fatah who occupy the Palestinian seat at the United Nations, and the decision for Palestine to call into play the Genocide Convention lies with Mahmoud Abbas. It is more and more difficult daily to support Abbas. He seems extraordinarily passive, and the suspicion that he is more concerned with refighting the Palestinian civil war than with resisting the genocide is impossible to shake. By invoking the Genocide Convention he could put himself and Fatah back at the centre of the narrative. But he does nothing. I do not want to believe that corruption and a Blinken promise of inheriting Gaza are Mahmoud’s motivators. But at the moment, I cannot grab on to any other explanation to believe in.” Thus speeches from Abbas and allied Palestinians figures should be viewed extremely skeptically. It is also very odd, to say the very least, that Francesca Albanese, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian Territory occupied since 1967, and other officials put out a statement “Gaza: UN experts call on international community to prevent genocide against the Palestinian people” — but make no mention whatever of the Genocide Convention. As Murray writes: “Any one of the 139 states party could invoke the Genocide Convention against Israel and its co-conspirators. Those states include Iran, Russia, Libya, Malaysia, Bolivia, Venezuela, Brazil, Afghanistan, Cuba, Ireland, Iceland, Jordan, South Africa, Turkey and Qatar. But not one of these states has called out the genocide [by invoking the Convention]. Why? “It is not because the Genocide Convention is a dead letter. It is not. It was invoked against Serbia by Bosnia and Herzegovina and the ICJ ruled against Serbia with regard to the massacre at Srebrenica.” Murray notes that this helped lead to prosecutions. He adds: “Some states may simply not have thought of it. For Arab states in particular, the fact that Palestine itself has not invoked the Genocide Convention may provide an excuse. EU states can hide behind bloc unanimity. “But I am afraid that the truth is that no state cares sufficiently about the thousands of Palestinian children already killed and thousands more who will shortly be killed, to introduce another factor of hostility in their relationship with the United States. Just as at [the recent] summit in Saudi Arabia, where Islamic countries could not agree [on] an oil and gas boycott of Israel, the truth is that those in power really do not care about a genocide in Gaza. They care about their own interests. “It just needs one state to invoke the Genocide Convention and change the narrative and the international dynamic. That will only happen through the power of the people in pressing the idea on their governments. This is where everybody can do a little something to add to the pressure. Please do what you can.” What can you do? Urge countries which have been critical of Israel to invoke the Genocide Convention at the International Court of Justice. Get groups and influential people to make this a primary ask. Protests in NYC should include visits and vigils to the missions of those countries. Activists who have been arrested for protesting against Israel’s slaughter can ask UN officials from countries critical of Israel to invoke the Genocide Convention. Palestinians in Ramallah may be able to directly contact the representatives of various countries to Palestine. This can be done anywhere. Protests in London can respectfully appeal to the embassies of various countries critical of Israel. We need to keep pressing directly against the US and Israeli governments, but their hearts are like stone. If we reach other states to invoke the Genocide Convention, it may be a key stop in curtailing the slaughter. Moreover, it could be a turning point in global relations. Should a positive emergency ruling by the International Court of Justice be forthcoming, it would dramatically isolate the US and Israel at the UN. The US would of course try to block anything at the UN Security Council. But with a World Court ruling, Boyle argues, the stage would be set for the General Assembly to assert itself using the Uniting for Peace procedure. Combined with sustained protests, like the WTO and other critical confrontations, the costs of continuing the slaughter could become unsustainable. Moreover, a World Court ruling could facilitate other legal efforts, like universal jurisdiction. For all that to happen, a country needs to step forward and invoke the Genocide Convention. Make no mistake; any nation that does this may well be targeted in insidious ways by the US and by Israel. Any such nation should be afforded every bit of support people of goodwill can muster. Here's a website that seems to list all the embassies and other diplomatic missions around the world. People from anywhere can be emailing, calling and going to these embassies and missions, urging these countries to use every legal mechanism to pressure Israel to stop, including invoking the Genocide Convention: embassy-worldwide.com. A friend extracted emails of missions to the UN: info@afghanistan-un.org mission.newyork@mfa.gov.al officeofthepr.albania@mfa.gov.al algeriamission.ny@gmail.com contact@andorraun.org theangolamission@angolaun.org unmission@ab.gov.ag jackley.peters@ab.gov.ag enaun@mrecic.gov.ar armenia@missionun.org australiaun@dfat.gov.au new-york-ov@bmeia.gv.at mission@azerbaijanun.org mission@bahamasny.com newyork.mission@mofa.gov.bh bangladeshatun@gmail.com bdpmny@gmail.com prun@foreign.gov.bb barbados@un.int usaun@mfa.gov.by newyorkun@diplobel.fed.be blzun@belizemission.com blzun@aol.com onu.newyork@gouv.bj beninewyork@gmail.com bhutanmission@pmbny.bt missionboliviaun@gmail.com bihun@mvp.gov.ba botswana@un.int distri.delbrasonu@itamaraty.gov.br bruneiunmission@protonmail.com mission.newyork@mfa.bg miperfaso.ny@burkina-onu.org ambabunewyork@yahoo.fr cvpm.unny@mnec.gov.cv cambodia@un.int cameroon.mission@yahoo.com canada.un@international.gc.ca repercaf.ny@gmail.com chadmission.un@gmail.com chile.un@minrel.gob.cl chinesemission@yahoo.com colombia@colombiaun.org comores.nu@gmail.com cgbrazzadel60@gmail.com miscr-onu@rree.go.cr cotedivoiremission@yahoo.com cromiss.un@mvep.hr cuba_onu@cubanmission.com unmission@mfa.gov.cy un.newyork@embassy.mzv.cz dprk.un@verizon.net missiondrc@gmail.com nycmis@um.dk djibouti@nyct.net dominicaun@gmail.com drmun1114@gmail.com onunewyork@cancilleria.gob.ec mission@egyptmissionny.com elsalvador@un.int info@equatorialguineaun.org general@eritreaun.org mission.newyork@mfa.ee eswatini@un.int eswatinimissionunny@yahoo.com ethiopia@un.int mission@fijiprun.org sanomat.yke@gov.fi france@franceonu.org info@gabonunmission.com gambia_un@hotmail.com geomission.un@mfa.gov.ge info@new-york-un.diplo.de ghanaperm@aol.com grdel.un@mfa.gr gmun@mofa.gov.gd onunewyork@minex.gob.gt missionofguinea.un@gmail.com guinebissauonu@gmail.com pmny@mission.gov.gy mphonu.newyork@diplomatie.ht ny.honduras@hnun.org hungaryun.ny@mfa.gov.hu unmission@mfa.is india.newyorkpmi@mea.gov.in ptri@indonesiaun.org iranunny@mfa.gov.ir iraq.mission@iraqmission-un.com newyorkpmun@dfa.ie uninfo@newyork.mfa.gov.il info.italyun@esteri.it info.unmissionny@mfaft.gov.jm p-m-j@dn.mofa.go.jp missionun@jordanmissionun.com unkazmission@gmail.com info@kenyaun.org kimission.newyork@mfa.gov.ki kuwait@kuwaitmissionun.org kyrgyzstan.un.ny@mfa.gov.kg lao.pr.ny@gmail.com mission.un-ny@mfa.gov.lv contact@lebanonun.org lesothonewyork@gmail.com liberiamission@pmun.gov.lr mission@libya-un.gov.ly newyork@llv.li lithuaniaun@gmail.com newyork.rp@mae.etat.lu repermad.ny@gmail.com malawinewyork@aol.com malawiu@aol.com mwnewyorkun@kln.gov.my info@maldivesmission.com miperma@malionu.com malta-un.newyork@gov.mt marshallislands@rmiunmission.org mauritaniamission@gmail.com mauritiusmissionnyc@gmail.com onuusr1@sre.gob.mx fsmun@fsmgov.org monaco.un@gmail.com mongolianmission@twcmetrobiz.com unnewyork.montenegro@gmail.com morocco.un@maec.gov.ma mozambique.unmission@gmail.com myanmarmission@verizon.net info@namibiaunmission.org nauru@un.int nepalmissionusa@gmail.com nyv@minbuza.nl nzpmun@gmail.com nicaraguaunny@yahoo.com nigermission@ymail.com permny@nigeriaunmission.org newyork@mfa.gov.mk delun@mfa.no oman@un.int pakistan@pakun.org mission@palauun.org emb@panama-un.org pngun@pngmission.org paraguay.un@mre.gov.py onuper@unperu.org newyork.pm@nypm.org newyork.pm@dfa.gov.ph poland.un@msz.gov.pl portugal.nu@mne.pt pmun@mofa.gov.qa korea.un@mofa.go.kr unmoldova@mfa.gov.md newyork-onu@mae.ro press@russiaun.ru ambanewyork@minaffet.gov.rw ambanewyork@gmail.com sknmission@aol.com info@stluciamission.org svgmission@gmail.com ambassadorassistantsvg@gmail.com samoa@samoanymission.ws sanmarinoun@gmail.com rdstppmun@gmail.com correspondence@ksamission-gov.net senegal.mission@yahoo.fr info@serbiamissionun.org pr.office@serbiamissionun.org seychellesmissionun@gmail.com seychellesmission@sycun.org sierraleone@pmun.net singaporeun@outlook.com un.newyork@mzv.sk slomission.newyork@gov.si simun@solomons.com somalia@unmission.gov.so pmun.newyork@dirco.gov.za info@rssun-nyc.org rep.nuevayorkonu@maec.es prun.newyork@mfa.gov.lk mail@slmission.com sudan@sudanmission.org suriname_un@proton.me representationen.new-york@gov.se newyork.un@eda.admin.ch syrianmission-ny@sar-un.org tajikistanunmission@gmail.com thaimission.ny@gmail.com timorleste.unmission@gmail.com togo.mission@togounmission.org tongaunmission@gmail.com pmun-ny@trinbago.org tunisia@un.int tunisiamission@usa.com tr-delegation.newyork@mfa.gov.tr turkmenistan.un@mfa.gov.tm tuvalu.unmission@gov.tv admin@ugandaunny.com uno_us@mfa.gov.ua nyunprm@mofaic.gov.ae nyunprm@uaeun.org ukmissionny@gmail.com tanzania.un@nje.go.tz usun.newyork@state.gov urudeleg@mrree.gub.uy uzbekistan.un@gmail.com vanunmis@aol.com misionvenezuelaonu@gmail.com info@vietnam-un.org yemenmissionny@gmail.com un@grz.gov.zm info@zambiamissionun.com zimnewyork@gmail.com office@holyseemission.org admin@palestinemissionun.org aumission_ny@yahoo.com ny.un@las.int aalco@un.int cari.per.obs.un@gmail.com ccampos@sgsica-ny.org newyork@commonwealth.int gccny@gccsg.org ceeaceccasom@gmail.com kjawara-njai@ecowas.int ecowasmission.ny@gmail.com bfaedda@eplo.int delegation-new-york@eeas.europa.eu amparo.morales@filac.org jonathan.granoff@iaca.int dijana.duric@iaca.int un@iccwbo.org nyoffice@interpol.int newyork@idlo.int unobserver@idea.int reper.new-york@francophonie.org nyoffice@irena.org iucn@un.int internationalyouthorganization@un.int uncontact@oecd.org oic.un.ny@gmail.com pam.unny@pam.int srao@ppdsec.org rgarvey@ppdsec.org south@southcentre.int nyinfo@upeace.org ny-office@ipu.org newyork@icrc.org newyork.delegation@ifrc.org ioc-unobserver@olympic.org un.mission.ny@orderofmalta.int faolon-director@fao.org iaeany@un.org liaisonofficeny@icc-cpi.int ifad.ny@ifad.org newyork@ilo.org rpowell@imf.org jlammens@imf.org unofficeny@iom.int seaun@un.org itlos@itlos.org newyork@unesco.org office.newyork@unido.org whonewyork@who.int newyork.office@wipo.int ola.zahran@wipo.int lpaterson@wmo.int laura.paterson@un.org Emails of embassies to and from Palestine via this page. aeoalg@caramail.org alembac@ucomgh.com alestine@intnet.dj aliman@icon.co.zw ambpal@eunet.rs ambpal@eunet.yu auemb@mofa-gov.ps austrep@palnet.com bremb@mofa-gov.ps chinaemb_ps@mfa.gov.cn clemb@mofa-gov.ps cyprusoffice@palnet.com del.palestine@wanadoo.fr deleg.palestinienne@beon.be elian@freemail.hu em.alasad_asad@hotmail.com embagoda.palestine@mad.servicom.es embassy@palestineindia.com embassyofpalestine.portugal@gmail.com embassyofpalestine@gmail.com embpalnic@turbonett.com.in empaltr@gmail.com eosopmet@omantel.net.com falastin@hellasnet.gr fiemb@mofa-gov.ps gdpalestine@swissonline.ch info@gdp.ie info@plo.swieden.org iqemb@mofa-gov.ps jerusalem@mianet.com.ar jerusalem@telesat.com.co jorrep@palnet.com kwemb@mofa-gov.ps lbemb@mofa-gov.ps maemb@mofa-gov.ps ngemb@mofa-gov.ps pal.damas@gmail.com pal_embassy@yahoo.com palango@netangola.com palastinelo@hotmail.com palemb.no@outlook.com palemb1@yemen.net palembassy_ukraine@hotmail.com palembs@qatar.net.qa palembtn@yahoo.com palestcz@mbox.vol.cz palestin@spidernet.com palestine@dsi.net.pk palestine@paltsts-jp.com palestine_bel_emb@hotmail.com palestine_emb_abuja@yahoo.com palestine_emb_mozambique@yahoo.com palestinead@hotmail.com palestinebg@yahoo.com palestinegd@gmail.com palestinekorea@hotmail.com pgd@planet.nl plemb@mofa-gov.ps plo@neda.net plomission1@aol.com plosrilanka@hotmail.com ramallah@embassy.mzv.cz repkon@ramdk.org roem@mofa.ps roi_gaza@mtcgaza.com saemb@mofa-gov.ps sanomat.ram@formin.fi sdemb@mofa-gov.ps sifmagaz@palnet.com skemb@mofa-gov.ps snemb@mofa-gov.ps vnemb@mofa.pna.ps zaemb@mofa-gov.ps zmemb@mofa-gov.ps Urge Governments to Invoke the Genocide Convention to Stop the War on Gaza https://worldbeyondwar.org/gaza-genocide/
    WORLDBEYONDWAR.ORG
    GENOCIDE - World BEYOND War
    Let's use the law to stop the killing in Gaza. #WorldBEYONDWar
    2 Comments 0 Shares 30626 Views
  • Just on the heels of the recent panic over the risk of a Venezuela invasion of its neighbor Guyana, the UK sent a warship to patrol off Venezuela's coast.
    Just on the heels of the recent panic over the risk of a Venezuela invasion of its neighbor Guyana, the UK sent a warship to patrol off Venezuela's coast.
    WWW.ACTIVISTPOST.COM
    Venezuela Launches 5,000+ Troop Exercise In Response To UK Warship's Approach - Activist Post
    On Wednesday Venezuelan forces were placed on a "high state of alert" following the reports of the British warship moving toward the coast.
    Like
    Love
    2
    0 Comments 0 Shares 763 Views
  • The Age of Megathreats
    Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022
    op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images
    NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be.

    Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.”

    Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies.

    Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries.

    Goodbye to All That

    Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII.

    There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb.


    Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini.

    Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More.

    For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15.

    Subscribe Now

    With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea.

    Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any.

    Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy.

    There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia.

    Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.”

    But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate.

    Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind.

    Hard Choices, Hard Landings

    The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks.

    While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession).

    What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant).

    History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies.

    Sticky Stagflation

    In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral.

    Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction.

    This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth.

    Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc.

    Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade.

    On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable.

    The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods.

    Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise.

    The Worst of All Possible Economies

    When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing.

    Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis.

    While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent.

    The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture.

    Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate.

    With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates.

    How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates.

    For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage.

    The Moment of Truth

    In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one).

    And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters.

    How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust.

    In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix.

    Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse.

    Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.
    The Age of Megathreats Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022 op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be. Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.” Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies. Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries. Goodbye to All That Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII. There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb. Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini. Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More. For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15. Subscribe Now With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea. Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any. Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy. There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia. Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.” But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate. Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind. Hard Choices, Hard Landings The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks. While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession). What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant). History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies. Sticky Stagflation In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral. Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction. This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth. Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc. Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade. On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable. The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods. Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise. The Worst of All Possible Economies When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing. Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis. While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent. The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture. Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate. With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates. How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates. For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage. The Moment of Truth In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one). And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters. How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust. In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix. Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse. Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.
    0 Comments 0 Shares 24448 Views
  • The Age of Megathreats
    Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022
    op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images
    NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be.

    Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.”

    Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies.

    Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries.

    Goodbye to All That

    Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII.

    There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb.


    Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini.

    Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More.

    For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15.

    Subscribe Now

    With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea.

    Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any.

    Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy.

    There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia.

    Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.”

    But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate.

    Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind.

    Hard Choices, Hard Landings

    The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks.

    While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession).

    What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant).

    History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies.

    Sticky Stagflation

    In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral.

    Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction.

    This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth.

    Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc.

    Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade.

    On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable.

    The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods.

    Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise.

    The Worst of All Possible Economies

    When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing.

    Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis.

    While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent.

    The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture.

    Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate.

    With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates.

    How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates.

    For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage.

    The Moment of Truth

    In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one).

    And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters.

    How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust.

    In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix.

    Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse.

    Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.
    The Age of Megathreats Nouriel RoubiniNov 4, 2022 op_roubini3_Getty Images_worlddisaster Getty Images NEW YORK – Severe megathreats are imperiling our future – not just our jobs, incomes, wealth, and the global economy, but also the relative peace, prosperity, and progress achieved over the past 75 years. Many of these threats were not even on our radar during the prosperous post-World War II era. I grew up in the Middle East and Europe from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and I never worried about climate change potentially destroying the planet. Most of us had barely even heard of the problem, and greenhouse-gas emissions were still relatively low, compared to where they would soon be. Moreover, after the US-Soviet détente and US President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in the early 1970s, I never really worried about another war among great powers, let alone a nuclear one. The term “pandemic” didn’t register in my consciousness, either, because the last major one had been in 1918. And I didn’t fathom that artificial intelligence might someday destroy most jobs and render Homo sapiens obsolete, because those were the years of the long “AI winter.” Similarly, terms like “deglobalization” and “trade war” had no purchase during this period. Trade liberalization had been in full swing since the Great Depression, and it would soon lead to the hyper-globalization that began in the 1990s. Debt crises posed no threat, because private and public debt-to-GDP ratios were low in advanced economies and emerging markets, and growth was robust. No one had to worry about the massive build-up of implicit debt, in the form of unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go social security and health-care systems. The supply of young workers was rising, the share of the elderly was still low, and robust, mostly unrestricted immigration from the Global South to the North would continue to prop up the labor market in advanced economies. Against this backdrop, economic cycles were contained, and recessions were short and shallow, except for during the stagflationary decade of the 1970s; but even then, there were no debt crises in advanced economies, because debt ratios were low. The kind of financial cycles that lead to crises were contained not just in advanced economies but even in emerging markets, owing to the low leverage, low risk-taking, solid financial regulation, capital controls, and various forms of financial repression that prevailed during this period. The advanced economies were strong liberal democracies that were free of extreme partisan polarization. Populism and authoritarianism were confined to a benighted cohort of poorer countries. Goodbye to All That Fast-forward from this relatively “golden” period between 1945 and 1985 to late 2022, and you will immediately notice that we are awash in new, extreme megathreats that were not previously on anyone’s mind. The world has entered what I call a geopolitical depression, with (at least) four dangerous revisionist powers – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea – challenging the economic, financial, security, and geopolitical order that the United States and its allies created after WWII. There is a sharply rising risk not only of war among great powers but of a nuclear conflict. In the coming year, Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine could escalate into an unconventional conflict that directly involves NATO. And Israel – and perhaps the US – may decide to launch strikes against Iran, which is on its way to building a nuclear bomb. Subscribe to PS Digital now to read all the latest insights from Nouriel Roubini. Digital subscribers enjoy access to every PS commentary, including those by Nouriel Roubini, plus our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content, including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More. For a limited time, save $15 with the code ROUBINI15. Subscribe Now With Chinese President Xi Jinping further consolidating his authoritarian rule, and with the US tightening its trade restrictions against China, the new Sino-American cold war is getting colder by the day. Worse, it could all too easily turn hot over the status of Taiwan, which Xi is committed to reuniting with the mainland, and which US President Joe Biden is apparently committed to defending. Meanwhile, nuclear-armed North Korea has once again been seeking attention by firing rockets over Japan and South Korea. Cyberwarfare occurs daily between these revisionist powers and the West, and many other countries have adopted a non-aligned posture toward Western-led sanctions regimes. From our contingent vantage point in the middle of all these events, we don’t yet know if World War III has already begun in Ukraine. That determination will be left to future historians – if there are any. Even discounting the threat of nuclear Armageddon, the risk of an environmental Apocalypse is becoming increasingly serious, especially given that most of the talk about net-zero and ESG (environment, social, and governance) investing is just greenwashing – or greenwishing. The new greenflation is already in full swing, because it turns out that amassing the metals needed for the energy transition requires a lot of expensive energy. There is also a growing risk of new pandemics that would be worse than biblical plagues, owing to the link between environmental destruction and zoonotic diseases. Wildlife, carrying dangerous pathogens, are coming into closer and more frequent contact with humans and livestock. That is why we have experienced more frequent and virulent pandemics and epidemics (HIV, SARS, MERS, swine flu, bird flu, Zika, Ebola, COVID-19) since the early 1980s. All the evidence suggests that this problem will become even worse in the future. Indeed, owing to the melting of Siberian permafrost, we may soon be confronting dangerous viruses and bacteria that have been locked away for millennia. Moreover, geopolitical conflicts and national-security concerns are fueling trade, financial, and technology wars, and accelerating the deglobalization process. The return of protectionism and the Sino-American decoupling will leave the global economy, supply chains, and markets more balkanized and fragmented. The buzzwords “friend-shoring” and “secure and fair trade” have replaced “offshoring” and “free trade.” But on the domestic front, advances in AI, robotics, and automation will destroy more and more jobs, even if policymakers build higher protectionist walls in an effort to fight the last war. By both restricting immigration and demanding more domestic production, aging advanced economies will create a stronger incentive for companies to adopt labor-saving technologies. While routine jobs are obviously at risk, so, too, are any cognitive jobs that can be unbundled into discrete tasks, and even many creative jobs. AI language models like GPT-3 can already write better than most humans and will almost certainly displace many jobs and sources of income. In due course, some scientists believe that Homo sapiens will be rendered entirely obsolete by the rise of artificial general intelligence or machine super-intelligence – though this is a highly contentious subject of debate. Thus, over time, economic malaise will deepen, inequality will rise even further, and more white- and blue-collar workers will be left behind. Hard Choices, Hard Landings The macroeconomic situation is no better. For the first time since the 1970s, we are facing high inflation and the prospect of a recession – stagflation. The increased inflation in advanced economies wasn’t “transitory.” It is persistent, driven by a combination of bad policies – excessively loose monetary, fiscal, and credit policies that were kept in place for too long – and bad luck. No one could have anticipated how much the initial COVID-19 shock would curtail the supply of goods and labor and create bottlenecks in global supply chains. The same goes for Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, which caused a sharp spike in energy, food, fertilizers, industrial metals, and other commodities. Meanwhile, China has continued its “zero-COVID” policy, which is creating additional supply bottlenecks. While both demand and supply factors were in the mix, it is now widely recognized that the supply factors have played an increasingly decisive role. This matters for the economic outlook, because supply-driven inflation is stagflationary and thus increases the risk that monetary-policy tightening will produce a hard landing (increased unemployment and potentially a recession). What will follow from the US Federal Reserve and other major central banks’ current tightening? Until recently, most central banks and most of Wall Street belonged to “Team Soft Landing.” But the consensus has rapidly shifted, with even Fed Chair Jerome Powell recognizing that a recession is possible, that a soft landing will be “very challenging,” and that everyone should prepare for some “pain” ahead. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s model shows a high probability of a hard landing, and the Bank of England has expressed similar views about the United Kingdom. Several prominent Wall Street institutions have also now made a recession their baseline scenario (the most likely outcome if all other variables are held constant). History, too, points to deeper problems ahead. For the past 60 years in the US, whenever inflation has been above 5% (it is above 8% today), and unemployment has been below 5% (it is now 3.5%), any attempt by the Fed to bring inflation down toward its 2% target has caused a recession. Thus, a hard landing is much more likely than a soft landing, both in the US and across most other advanced economies. Sticky Stagflation In addition to the short-term factors, negative supply shocks and demand factors in the medium term will cause inflation to persist. On the supply side, I count eleven negative supply shocks that will reduce potential growth and increase the costs of production. Among these is the backlash against hyper-globalization, which has been gaining momentum and creating opportunities for populist, nativist, and protectionist politicians, and growing public anger over stark income and wealth inequalities, which is leading to more policies to support workers and the “left behind.” However well-intentioned, such measures will contribute to a dangerous wage-price spiral. Other sources of persistent inflation include rising protectionism (from both the left and the right), which has restricted trade, impeded the movement of capital, and heightened political resistance to immigration, which in turn has put additional upward pressure on wages. National-security and strategic considerations have further restricted flows of technology, data, and talent, and new labor and environmental standards, as important as they may be, are hampering both trade and new construction. This balkanization of the global economy is deeply stagflationary, and it is coinciding with demographic aging, not just in developed countries but also in large emerging economies such as China. Because young people tend to produce and save more, whereas older people spend down their savings and require many more expensive services in health care and other sectors, this trend, too, will lead to higher prices and slower growth. Today’s geopolitical turmoil further complicates matters. The disruptions to trade and the spike in commodity prices following Russia’s invasion were not just a one-off phenomenon. The same threats to harvests and food shipments that arose in 2022 may well persist in 2023. Moreover, if China does finally end its zero-COVID policy and begin to restart its economy, a surge in demand for many commodities will add to the global inflationary pressures. There is also no end in sight for Sino-Western decoupling, which is accelerating across all dimensions of trade (goods, services, capital, labor, technology, data, and information). And, of course, Iran, North Korea, and other strategic rivals to the West could soon contribute in their own ways to the global havoc. Now that the US dollar has been fully weaponized for strategic and national-security purposes, its position as the main global reserve currency could eventually begin to decline, and a weaker dollar would of course add to inflationary pressures in the US. More broadly, a frictionless world trading system requires a frictionless financial system. But sweeping primary and secondary sanctions have thrown sand in what was once a well-oiled machine, massively increasing the transaction costs of trade. On top of it all, climate change, too, will create persistent stagflationary pressures. Droughts, heat waves, hurricanes, and other disasters are increasingly disrupting economic activity and threatening harvests (thus driving up food prices). At the same time, demands for decarbonization have led to underinvestment in fossil-fuel capacity before investment in renewables has reached the point where they can make up the difference. Today’s large energy-price spikes were inevitable. The increased likelihood of future pandemics also represents a persistent source of stagflation, especially considering how little has been done to prevent or prepare for the next one. The next contagious outbreak will lend further momentum to protectionist policies as countries rush to close borders and hoard critical supplies of food, medicines, and other essential goods. Finally, cyberwarfare remains an underappreciated threat to economic activity and even public safety. Firms and governments will either face more stagflationary disruptions to production, or they will have to spend a fortune on cybersecurity. Either way, costs will rise. The Worst of All Possible Economies When the recession comes, it will not be short and shallow but long and severe. Not only are we facing persistent short- and medium-term negative supply shocks, but we are also heading into the mother of all debt crises, owing to soaring private and public debt ratios over the last few decades. Low debt ratios spared us from that outcome in the 1970s. And though we certainly had debt crises following the 2008 crash – the result of excessive household, bank, and government debt – we also had deflation. It was a demand shock and a credit crunch that could be met with massive monetary, fiscal, and credit easing. Today, we are experiencing the worst elements of both the 1970s and 2008. Multiple, persistent negative supply shocks have coincided with debt ratios that are even higher than they were during the global financial crisis. These inflationary pressures are forcing central banks to tighten monetary policy even though we are heading into a recession. That makes the current situation fundamentally different from both the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. Everyone should be preparing for what may come to be remembered as the Great Stagflationary Debt Crisis. While central banks have been at pains to sound more hawkish, we should be skeptical of their professed willingness to fight inflation at any cost. Once they find themselves in a debt trap, they will have to blink. With debt ratios so high, fighting inflation will cause an economic and financial crash that will be deemed politically unacceptable. Major central banks will feel as though they have no choice but to backpedal, and inflation, the debasement of fiat currencies, boom-bust cycles, and financial crises will become even more severe and frequent. The inevitability of central banks wimping out was recently on display in the United Kingdom. Faced with the market reaction to the Truss government’s reckless fiscal stimulus, the BOE had to launch an emergency quantitative-easing (QE) program to buy up government bonds. That sad episode confirmed that in the UK, as in many other countries, monetary policy is increasingly subject to fiscal capture. Recall that a similar turnaround occurred in 2019, when the Fed, after previously signaling continued rate hikes and quantitative-tightening, stopped its QT program and started pursuing a mix of backdoor QE and policy-rate cuts at the first sign of mild financial pressures and a growth slowdown. Central banks will talk tough; but, in a world of excessive debt and risks of an economic and financial crash, there is good reason to doubt their willingness to do “whatever it takes” to return inflation to its target rate. With governments unable to reduce high debts and deficits by spending less or raising revenues, those that can borrow in their own currency will increasingly resort to the “inflation tax”: relying on unexpected price growth to wipe out long-term nominal liabilities at fixed interest rates. How will financial markets and prices of equities and bonds perform in the face of rising inflation and the return of stagflation? It is likely that, as in the stagflation of the 1970s, both components of any traditional asset portfolio will suffer, potentially incurring massive losses. Inflation is bad for bond portfolios, which will take losses as yields increase and prices fall, as well as for equities, whose valuations are hurt by rising interest rates. For the first time in decades, a 60/40 portfolio of equities and bonds suffered massive losses in 2022, because bond yields have surged while equities have gone into a bear market. By 1982, at the peak of the stagflation decade, the average S&P 500 firm’s price-to-earnings ratio was down to eight; today, it is closer to 20, which suggests that the bear market could end up being even more protracted and severe. Investors will need to find assets to hedge against inflation, political and geopolitical risks, and environmental damage: these include short-term government bonds and inflation-indexed bonds, gold and other precious metals, and real estate that is resilient to environmental damage. The Moment of Truth In any case, these megathreats will further contribute to rising income and wealth inequality, which has already been putting severe pressure on liberal democracies (as those left behind revolt against elites), and fueling the rise of radical and aggressive populist regimes. One can find right-wing manifestations of this trend in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, Sweden, the US (under Donald Trump), post-Brexit Britain, and many other countries; and left-wing manifestations in Argentina, Venezuela, Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and now Brazil (which has just replaced a right-wing populist with a left-wing one). And, of course, Xi’s authoritarian stranglehold has given the lie to the old idea that Western engagement with a fast-growing China would ineluctably lead that country to open itself up even more to markets and, eventually, to democratic processes. Under Xi, China shows every sign of becoming more closed off, and more aggressive on geopolitical, security, and economic matters. How did it come to this? Part of the problem is that we have long had our heads stuck in the sand. Now, we need to make up for lost time. Without decisive action, we will be heading into a period that is less like the four decades after WWII than like the three decades between 1914 and 1945. That period gave us World War I; the Spanish flu pandemic; the 1929 Wall Street crash; the Great Depression; massive trade and currency wars; inflation, hyperinflation, and deflation; financial and debt crises, leading to massive meltdowns and defaults; and the rise of authoritarian militarist regimes in Italy, Germany, Japan, Spain, and elsewhere, culminating in WWII and the Holocaust. In this new world, the relative peace, prosperity, and rising global welfare that we have taken for granted will be gone; most of it already is. If we don’t stop the multi-track slow-motion train wreck that is threatening the global economy and our planet at large, we will be lucky to have only a repeat of the stagflationary 1970s. Far more likely is an echo of the 1930s and the 1940s, only now with all the massive disruptions from climate change added to the mix. Avoiding a dystopian scenario will not be easy. While there are potential solutions to each megathreat, most are costly in the short run and will deliver benefits only over the long run. Many also require technological innovations that are not yet available or in place, starting with those needed to halt or reverse climate change. Complicating matters further, today’s megathreats are interconnected, and therefore best addressed in a systematic and coherent fashion. Domestic leadership, in both the private and public sector, and international cooperation among great powers is necessary to prevent the coming Apocalypse. Yet there are many domestic and international obstacles standing in the way of policies that would allow for a less dystopian (though still contested and conflictual) future. Thus, while a less bleak scenario is obviously desirable, a clear-headed analysis indicates that dystopia is much more likely than a happier outcome. The years and decades ahead will be marked by a stagflationary debt crisis and related megathreats – war, pandemics, climate change, disruptive AI, and deglobalization – all of which will be bad for jobs, economies, markets, peace, and prosperity.
    0 Comments 0 Shares 22966 Views
  • What were the factors that led to the economic crisis in Venezuela? In short, everything started because of three criminal actions.
    What were the factors that led to the economic crisis in Venezuela? In short, everything started because of three criminal actions.
    WWW.ACTIVISTPOST.COM
    This Timeline of the Venezuelan Economic Collapse May Look Familiar to Americans - Activist Post
    We are about to face this situation in many countries, so it would be very useful for anyone out there to learn from this experience.
    Like
    3
    0 Comments 0 Shares 1166 Views
  • I will start with an introduction. My parents are of Jewish Ancestry. My Dad is specifically of mostly Ashkenazi Jewish Descent. My dad taught me that Socialism was a good thing, and that Capitalism was the reason for Tyranny, Oppression, divisiveness and greed. My dad defended Countries such as Cuba and Venezuela, and opposed the U.S for intervening in their Affairs. My dad always painted the U.S as a greedy evil Capitalist Country that coerced and sanctioned other Countries that weren't doing its bidding.

    So, you can imagine. Just the Mention of right leaning Conservatism to me was repugnant. I could never understand why Conservatives cared not about the poor, yet professed a Christian faith. I was also taught that Jesus was a Socialist. Bear in mind however, that i did not know the real definition of Socialism. The only definition i knew was the watered down pseudo definition taught by State Controlled entities such as Public Schools and what my father taught me.

    I was taught Hitler was an example of NEO Liberailism, and that he privatized the Industries and crushed the Trade Unions, which is a real distortion of the actual facts. My wife is also of Ashkenazi Jewish descent. People however, were persecuted in Moldova because of their Jewish heritage. So, her family needed to keep that fact silenced in order to survive. My wife experienced real socialism first hand. My wife knew what a disaster leftist ideology is.

    When my wife was first introduced to me by a friend. The whole purpose of us meeting was to study the Torah, and because i had sat at Yeshivot, know hermaneutics ect, was the reason as to why my wife wanted to meet me and why she wanted to study with me. Little did i know that i had no understanding of the true definiton of my political ideology.

    Although i did conquer her misconceptions and misunderstandings of the bible, and offered irrefutable evidence and context from the Hebrew and other sources. I was not very effective when it came to politics. When she would tell me about the Socialism she lived through. I would tell her that it wasn't real Socialism, and would even tell her that her country was right leaning and conservative, and that is why only a few in her country were extremely rich, and the rest of the population was extremelly poor.

    It took me years before i finally opened my eyes, decided to investigate and challenge my ideology. I was a green partier and thought we were fighting for people's civil rights and were against the Central bankers and Government. I was truly deceived in believing that Socialism was a fight against tyranny, and that the revolution was an act of righteousness. My dad was a huge proponent of Franklin D. Roosevelt. I was taught that FDR did great things, such as levi high taxations for the rich. In fact, my dad praised FDR's 96% tax on the rich. Mussolini considered FDR a Fascist like him, and FDR was enamoured by Italian Fascism, which made no sense to me, as being a proponent of the left, Fascism was repugnant to me.

    The reality really was that my ideology was Fascist, i was just completely in the dark about it. I was taught that Government controlled Trade Unions were good and were there to defend my rights. Fascism by definiton is Trade Unionism. All of those people blaming right leaning Conservatives of being Fascist on one hand, and on the other they are supporting the Unions are by definiton the Fascist. Mussolini was an Anarcho Syndiclist, which is an oxymoron, but lets just role with it. Syndicates are Trade Unions. The Difference is that the Italians called them Corporations and the Soviets called them Syndicates. Hence, Syndicalism is Trade Unionism, and Trade Unionism is Fascism. So, when the Marxist call you a Fascist for being on the right. Make them aware that by definition, they are the Syndicalist and therefore they are the Fascist. None of these Marxist even know what they are saying when they call people Fascist. None of them can even define fascism.

    All of that being said. I am now ready to begin on explaining the Title of my post which is Holocaust VS National Socialism, and Holocaust VS Marxism.

    I owe a lot of the Knowledge I've acquired to Tik who has indepth Documentaries Explaining the differences between Public and Private, Socialism and Capitalism. If i had known the meaning of these terms, i would have never been a Socialist. Tik challenged my ideology, which led me in challenging my own ideology to see if it passes the test of scrutiny. It indeed did not.

    #1. Holocaust VS National Socialism

    The National Socialist Trolls as i have mentioned before know the Holocaust did Happen. The only purpose of them denying it, is because they know this is a direct attack on the Marxist who say the Holocaust did happen. It is clear as Tik puts it, that the National Socialists know that Hitler did Socialise the Aryan Racial Collective by removing the Jews from Society. If Hitler did not remove the Jews from Society, that only means that Hitler was not a "National Socialist" and did not Nationalize the masses nor Socialise the Aryan Race as he promised. Hitler did what he promised and the National Socialist know this. And therefore, the Holocaust did happen.

    2. Holocaust VS Marxism

    The Marxist claim the Holocaust happened. Yet, they deny the ideology that led to the Holocaust. The Marxist Deny that Hitler was a Socialist and place Hitler on the far right. By denying that Hitler was a Socialist, the Marxist are denying that Hitler Socialized the Aryan Race and are indirectly saying Hitler did not remove the Jews from Society, which is a denial of the Holocaust. The Marxist and other Socialists believe the Holocaust happened. Yet they deny the ideological driver of the Holocaust!
    I will start with an introduction. My parents are of Jewish Ancestry. My Dad is specifically of mostly Ashkenazi Jewish Descent. My dad taught me that Socialism was a good thing, and that Capitalism was the reason for Tyranny, Oppression, divisiveness and greed. My dad defended Countries such as Cuba and Venezuela, and opposed the U.S for intervening in their Affairs. My dad always painted the U.S as a greedy evil Capitalist Country that coerced and sanctioned other Countries that weren't doing its bidding. So, you can imagine. Just the Mention of right leaning Conservatism to me was repugnant. I could never understand why Conservatives cared not about the poor, yet professed a Christian faith. I was also taught that Jesus was a Socialist. Bear in mind however, that i did not know the real definition of Socialism. The only definition i knew was the watered down pseudo definition taught by State Controlled entities such as Public Schools and what my father taught me. I was taught Hitler was an example of NEO Liberailism, and that he privatized the Industries and crushed the Trade Unions, which is a real distortion of the actual facts. My wife is also of Ashkenazi Jewish descent. People however, were persecuted in Moldova because of their Jewish heritage. So, her family needed to keep that fact silenced in order to survive. My wife experienced real socialism first hand. My wife knew what a disaster leftist ideology is. When my wife was first introduced to me by a friend. The whole purpose of us meeting was to study the Torah, and because i had sat at Yeshivot, know hermaneutics ect, was the reason as to why my wife wanted to meet me and why she wanted to study with me. Little did i know that i had no understanding of the true definiton of my political ideology. Although i did conquer her misconceptions and misunderstandings of the bible, and offered irrefutable evidence and context from the Hebrew and other sources. I was not very effective when it came to politics. When she would tell me about the Socialism she lived through. I would tell her that it wasn't real Socialism, and would even tell her that her country was right leaning and conservative, and that is why only a few in her country were extremely rich, and the rest of the population was extremelly poor. It took me years before i finally opened my eyes, decided to investigate and challenge my ideology. I was a green partier and thought we were fighting for people's civil rights and were against the Central bankers and Government. I was truly deceived in believing that Socialism was a fight against tyranny, and that the revolution was an act of righteousness. My dad was a huge proponent of Franklin D. Roosevelt. I was taught that FDR did great things, such as levi high taxations for the rich. In fact, my dad praised FDR's 96% tax on the rich. Mussolini considered FDR a Fascist like him, and FDR was enamoured by Italian Fascism, which made no sense to me, as being a proponent of the left, Fascism was repugnant to me. The reality really was that my ideology was Fascist, i was just completely in the dark about it. I was taught that Government controlled Trade Unions were good and were there to defend my rights. Fascism by definiton is Trade Unionism. All of those people blaming right leaning Conservatives of being Fascist on one hand, and on the other they are supporting the Unions are by definiton the Fascist. Mussolini was an Anarcho Syndiclist, which is an oxymoron, but lets just role with it. Syndicates are Trade Unions. The Difference is that the Italians called them Corporations and the Soviets called them Syndicates. Hence, Syndicalism is Trade Unionism, and Trade Unionism is Fascism. So, when the Marxist call you a Fascist for being on the right. Make them aware that by definition, they are the Syndicalist and therefore they are the Fascist. None of these Marxist even know what they are saying when they call people Fascist. None of them can even define fascism. All of that being said. I am now ready to begin on explaining the Title of my post which is Holocaust VS National Socialism, and Holocaust VS Marxism. I owe a lot of the Knowledge I've acquired to Tik who has indepth Documentaries Explaining the differences between Public and Private, Socialism and Capitalism. If i had known the meaning of these terms, i would have never been a Socialist. Tik challenged my ideology, which led me in challenging my own ideology to see if it passes the test of scrutiny. It indeed did not. #1. Holocaust VS National Socialism The National Socialist Trolls as i have mentioned before know the Holocaust did Happen. The only purpose of them denying it, is because they know this is a direct attack on the Marxist who say the Holocaust did happen. It is clear as Tik puts it, that the National Socialists know that Hitler did Socialise the Aryan Racial Collective by removing the Jews from Society. If Hitler did not remove the Jews from Society, that only means that Hitler was not a "National Socialist" and did not Nationalize the masses nor Socialise the Aryan Race as he promised. Hitler did what he promised and the National Socialist know this. And therefore, the Holocaust did happen. 2. Holocaust VS Marxism The Marxist claim the Holocaust happened. Yet, they deny the ideology that led to the Holocaust. The Marxist Deny that Hitler was a Socialist and place Hitler on the far right. By denying that Hitler was a Socialist, the Marxist are denying that Hitler Socialized the Aryan Race and are indirectly saying Hitler did not remove the Jews from Society, which is a denial of the Holocaust. The Marxist and other Socialists believe the Holocaust happened. Yet they deny the ideological driver of the Holocaust!
    Like
    10
    1 Comments 1 Shares 5327 Views
  • Motor Extreme 2022 Maracay, Venezuela ????????
    Motor Extreme 2022 Maracay, Venezuela ????????
    Like
    Love
    2
    0 Comments 0 Shares 1352 Views